It was discovered by the State Water Authority in 2019. Over 100 years, there will be insufficient groundwater available for new groundwater-dependent developments.

Then there was an earthquake in the Phoenix area. On June 1, the Arizona Department of Water Resources similarly announced that models were showing a large unmet water demand in the Phoenix area, imposing restrictions on groundwater-based development in suburban areas. .

Aftershocks are possible in Tucson. Within the next year or two, the state plans to complete a similar groundwater model. Tucson Active Management Area. Does this model show that water demand will be unmet over the next century?

After all, probably not.

Signs Tucson may be in a different position Pinal County or Phoenix Active Management Areabecause of differences in local history, culture and economy.

That might give you a sigh of relief, but it’s not very good news. As the Phoenix earthquake subsides, we know that projected shortfalls may need to be exploited to achieve much-needed conservation in the long term.

Today, the Tucson area is a leader in conservation. This is one of the reasons why various experts have told me that the active management field here is unlikely to be in short supply.

“Tucson has always been a different kind of community. A desert city that understood conservation and living within our means and embracing the concept of a desert city,” says Val, founder of the Southern Arizona Water Conservation Alliance. Little said.

This ethic goes back at least to the 1970s. At that time, Tucson Water first started charging block fees. That is, the higher the consumption level, the higher the price. It was also at this time that Tucson Water’s mascot, Pete the Beek, emerged to encourage people to conserve water, and to great success.

We were early and enthusiastic adopters of xeriscape, water sampling and low flow equipment.flat Tucson uses less water as its population grows.

Aside from conservation, another reason we are likely to find ourselves well-watered is the Colorado River water collected here by the Central Arizona Project, which has been dike for over 20 years. It’s what I’ve been doing

“The relative demand compared to the relative supply puts us in a better position,” he said. Cathy Jacobsdirector of Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona. “It’s not just a coincidence. It’s because we allocate a very large CAP.”

Additionally, there is the fact that there is less farmland in the Phoenix area, especially compared to Pinal County.

Overall, Southern Arizona Home Builders Association President David Godolsky is pretty confident about the outlook for the Tucson area.

“We shouldn’t be in the same position (with Phoenix) because we’ve valued our water resources more,” he said. “We are optimistic that as a region we are in a much better position to grow and conserve water at the same time.”

Everyone is probably right about the findings of the Arizona Department of Water Resources. Tucson is the only one of her five regions in Arizona that is actively managed. Achieving Practically Safe Yields In recent years, the inflow and outflow of water have been balanced.

But if we’re not careful, that success could ultimately hurt conservation efforts in the long run.

Consider the reaction of Godolski’s colleague in the Phoenix area, the Central Arizona Association of Home Builders, to the shortage announcement there and a few other key factors.

As my colleague Tony Davis reported, the association’s vice president, Spencer Kumps, announced on June 27 at the first meeting of the Governor’s Reliable Water Commission on the discovery of this model. reacted violently.

“If a house is closed while it’s being sold to a customer, the impact will be devastating,” Mr. Kamps complained. “People will lose money. And the demand for housing will not go away.”

Indeed, Arizona Water Resources Director Tom Bustschke has already indicated that the agency’s findings may not be as robust as previously thought.

He presented two alternative ways that remote developments that should be closed based on the ministry’s findings could actually obtain the necessary water certificates. Buschatke also expressed a willingness to tinker with models that found massive shortages.

In other words, the water model findings, which seemed inflexible when they were first published, actually became flexible under pressure from powerful economic forces.

And it’s dangerous. Because this model doesn’t even consider one important factor. That means the Colorado River’s water supply could be reduced.

In other words, Tucson’s actively managed neighborhoods could prove to have ample supply for residential developments that rely on groundwater. But the supply of CAP, which helps justify the discovery, could drop by up to half as climate warming dries up rivers.

Additionally, regulations allowing water to be pumped in one area and replenished in another means that even under the conditions allowed, deep holes in the water table can occur. Cracks and subsidence may occur.

2022 Report by the University of Arizona Reclamation Service and others found that the Tucson area has four high-risk areas due to population growth and groundwater depletion:

Area north of Oro Valley, from Catalina to Saddlebrook

Part of the Tanque Verde Valley not far from the Sabino Valley

southeastern tip of Tucson

The advantage of finding a shortfall is that it will facilitate the development of further fillers. This prevents suburban land from sprawling and is more environmentally beneficial in terms of water and energy use, etc.

Kathleen Ferris, the author of the state’s Groundwater Act in 1980 and a member of the Secure Water Supply Commission, said there was a risk that the inevitable would be postponed.

“The more groundwater use increases, the more likely this model will eventually show unmet demand,” she said.

Even if a state finds enough supplies for 100 years, “that doesn’t mean the pumping and use of that groundwater is sustainable,” she says.

Especially in a warming climate with population growth and the decline of the Colorado River, clearly not.

We need tools to deal with this reality. And, in the end, it turns out that models showing that there is not enough groundwater supply for 100 years of growth are just a means, not a directive. The Phoenix experience shows that.

A model that finds shortages in the Tucson area could provide the necessary power to enforce the conservation measures that will ultimately be needed.