What started as a flood will end up like so many dry gullys lashing out in the sun. We’re not talking about water – well, we are – but , we’re really talking about single-family homes.

But housing developers should be alarmed by findings from government officials and policy makers that water supplies are reaching critical levels while populations are declining and cities are sprawling. It seems unfazed by the reaction. Even upper-middle-class playgrounds like Lake Mead and Lake Powell are turning into dry crack fields.

Things got real when Governor Katie Hobbs took over the reins of Arizona from Doug Ducey in early 2023. Release reports almost instantly It is believed that the previous government hid it. His Valley West of Phoenix says he has only 4.4 million acre feet of water in 100 years.

Before construction is approved, developers in the Phoenix area must prove to the state that the land they are building on has enough water under the ground to last 100 years.

According to the Hobbes Administration, this is a problem around Phoenix, especially in the lower Hassayampa and West Salt River Valley river basins and in a small portion of the water supply simply can’t support new homes. The Department of Resources refuses to certify new proposals that rely on groundwater.

“I do not understand, and in no way do I agree, that my predecessor chose to keep this report away from the public and members of Congress. “The decision shows how I intend to address our water problems openly and directly,” Hobbes said in a state address in January, just days after taking the oath of office. We have to talk about contemporary challenges: decades of drought in Arizona, overuse of the Colorado River, and the compounding impact on our water supplies, forests, and communities.”

In other words, the governor is putting the brakes on a development boom that has seen the birth of entire desert cities despite two decades of drought — Worst drought the region has experienced in the last 1,200 years.

Arizona’s January wake-up calls were compounded by the disaster in the Rio Verde Foothills near Scottsdale. The area gets its water from the Colorado River via his 1,000-year-old canal system originally laid by Native Americans.

Built in the 1970s with no mains water, the 600-unit subdivision has been trucked in since it was built. Residents were left high and dry as the city of Scottsdale cut back on water use last year. Bathing became a true luxury, and store-bought water became a necessity. according to time.

Eventually, residents sued the city.

One of the developments being formed in the desert patch in question is a 37,000-acre estate in the White Tank Mountains that the Howard Hughes Corporation has master-planned with 100,000 residential units and 55 million square feet of commercial space. We want to build community. To realize the land Terravalris once called Douglas Ranch, he will have to prove he can provide water for 300,000 inhabitants and 450,000 workers. according to of new york times.

However, the first stage of the Teravalis development, known as Floreo, has already received 100-year guaranteed water certification from the Water Resources Authority and has more than 7,000 homes in the pipeline.

“When the time comes to expand beyond Floreo’s development, we are ready to do so in a way that ensures a prosperous and sustainable future. Heath Melton, president of Howard Hughes’ Arizona region, said in a statement:

The company did not immediately disclose what kind of sustainability measures it was planning.

Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, said more restrictions on residential development on the southeastern side of the Greater Phoenix area, known as the Salt River Basin, when another groundwater report was released. I expect The next few days.

Still, much of the new parcel Gov. Hobbes was working on long before he moved in January was largely undeterred by these revelations, according to Porter, and is physically, legally and financially impacted on water resources. has already been proven to have access to

“For some time, developers have proven supplies based on groundwater in the aquifer directly beneath the development. The Water Resources Authority has done modeling and concluded that groundwater is fully allocated ‘ said Porter. [But] There are years and years of developments yet to be built that have already obtained guaranteed water supply certificates. ”

Regarding the policy change, Porter said the certification process itself does not need to be overhauled to protect potential homeowners.

“Developers believe that anything that can continue to be developed is in the greater good. I’m being ironic, but there’s no consensus on what to do,” Porter said. When we buy a home in Phoenix or Tucson, we need to stick to our current policies to ensure that we have water for that home.”

Housing developments within the city limits of Arizona’s major population centers only need to prove every 15 years that they can meet the current demands of residents. This meant that desert cities could grow. Rental housing is not subject to the same certification. This is seen as consumer protection as much as environmental protection. This is ostensibly because tenants do not make lifetime commitments.

“The consumer protection aspect doesn’t really apply,” she said.

Another of Hobbes’ first courses of action was to bring the 43-year-old Arizona Groundwater Management Act into the 21st century and create a Water Policy Council tasked with preventing unnecessary or unscrupulous waste. was to issue an administrative order to

Hobbes and newly elected state attorney general Chris Mays are trying to close a loophole that would allow free groundwater pumping in La Paz county by Fondmonte, a subsidiary of Saudi alfalfa producer Almarai. Almarai uses H2O to produce hay in Arizona and ship it to Saudi Arabia. Alfalfa cultivation is illegal due to the large amount of water required.

The company’s farm operates under a state lease, which Mays believes should be an illegal government gift under the Arizona constitution.she plans to Terminate contract within 6 months and recover $38 million in outstanding balance for water used.

In Pinal County, a predominantly agricultural county just south of Phoenix, the Department of Water Resources has halted all new home construction in 2021 due to overpumping. Despite the moratorium, the Pinal city of Casa Grande approved up to 700 rental homes last year due to another loophole. The 100 year water guarantee does not apply to construction rental communities.condominiums only.

Groundwater makes up 41% of Arizona’s water supply, but the rest comes from the ailing Colorado River, which has supported the populations of cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix for decades. Overall, the river provides drinking water to 40 million people, as well as the states of Sonora, Mexico and Baja, California.

Following conservation measures by the Hobbes administration, The Biden administration announced on April 11 California, Arizona, and Nevada should each reduce Colorado’s water use by about a quarter. For Arizona, that means reducing its water allotment from Colorado by 600,000 acre feet a year, Hobbs said.

“The system is nearing a tipping point and without action we will not be able to protect the system and the millions of Americans who depend on this vital resource.” Reclamation Commissioner Camille Karimrim Touton said at a press conference at the time:.

Mark Hallum can be reached at mhallum@commercialobserver.com.