Here's a prediction from a nonpartisan expert: Californians will be enthusiastic about Kamala Harris and could turn out to vote in record numbers.

Of course, higher Democratic turnout would benefit the party's lower-ranking candidates, especially in key congressional races that will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

But what is so appealing about Harris?

First, she's a fellow Californian, says veteran pollster Mark Baldassarre. Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaThere will be pride in your hometown.

Second, and more important, she would be the first woman president — a move that voters will want to “be a part of history,” he said.

So, in addition to electing a Democrat and getting rid of the vile Donald Trump, Baldassarre predicts Californians will be extra motivated to vote for Harris “because she's from their state and they can vote for the first woman president.”

Now, let's look at the history.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first female major party presidential nominee. She won California but lost to Trump, but turnout there was mediocre for a presidential election, with only 75% of registered voters.

California produced two Republican presidents, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, both of whom won the state.

When Nixon was elected president in 1968, voter turnout was very high, about 86%, but this was driven primarily by public anger at the Johnson administration's conduct of the Vietnam War and fatigue with civil unrest.

When Reagan was elected in 1980, California's voter turnout was high (77%) but not exceptional.

But that was a long time ago when it came to voting. Today, it's very easy to vote in California, the polar opposite of voter suppression in Republican-leaning states.

Because of this ease, approximately 22 million people are currently registered to vote in California, which represents 82% of the state's voter population.

Voter registration is virtually automatic. The registration process begins when you communicate with the DMV or fill out a change of address form. All registered voters will receive a ballot in the mail with a self-addressed return envelope, giving you plenty of time to fill it out. Voting opens one month before Election Day.

And despite the MAGA conspiracy theories and lies, there is absolutely no evidence of significant voter fraud.

“There will be a lot of Republicans voting,” Baldassarre predicted, not just Democrats. “They want to have a voice. They want to get out there and voice their opinions.”

Republican voters will also be inspired by Harris, but in a opposite direction to Democrats.

Furthermore, the public will be overwhelmed with high-profile media coverage of the campaign.

“We are expecting historic attendance,” Baldassarre claims.

Baldassarre noted in a PPIC blog last week that California's voter turnout reached a record high of 17.8 million in 2020, when Joe Biden ousted then-President Trump, who had complained and lied about the vote count.

Turnout in California was roughly 81% of eligible voters and 71% of eligible voters. Baldassarre wrote on Nov. 5 that the voter turnout record “may be broken.”

But two other political experts I called were skeptical.

“We expect turnout will be high, but we're not sure it will be as high as 2020,” said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California.

She suspects California voters won't mind the fact that Harris is a local who has served as San Francisco district attorney, state attorney general and U.S. senator.

“People will pay more attention to this race because Harris is running,” Romero said, “but I'm not sure how much attention she will get because she's a Californian. Most Californians know her as the vice president, not as a Californian.”

I suspect Harris is getting a lot of positive attention because she's not an older Biden, and she's also drawn to the race because Democrats outnumber Republicans almost twice as much in California and can't ignore the damn Trump.

Romero also cited something that motivated many Democrats in 2020 but not as passionately as it does today: the Black Lives Matter movement, which was sparked by the killing of African-American George Floyd by a white police officer in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and has since exploded into nationwide protests, some of which have turned ugly.

“It politicized environmental issues and highlighted issues of race and justice,” she recalls.

Romero added that unlike this year, in 2020, a lot of public and private money was spent across the country to encourage people to vote because election officials feared pandemic lockdowns would reduce voter turnout. But the result was the opposite.

Paul Mitchell, an election statistician who runs the company Political Data, said record numbers of voters had turned out “because of the coronavirus lockdown”.

“Remember how bored we were? People were leaving their homes for the first time in a week, so they were taking their ballots to drop boxes,” he explains.

“We're going to see a higher turnout this year,” Mitchell said, “but it's hard to say it'll be higher than 2020. I think 80% is the upper limit.”

But he expects youth turnout to be at an all-time high because of increased registration. “We've seen a huge increase in people registering to vote,” he said.

“We've done everything we can in every state to make it easier to vote.”

Well, not really, he added.

“If people could vote online, that would be a big thing,” he said. “But people still [potential hacking]”It's a bit strange. We trust our online banking, but we're tied to the voting system.”

Yes, but there will be a large vote in California starting in early October that will likely hurt Harris as a home-state candidate.