Israel’s military campaign against Hamas seems unlikely to succeed.
There are simply too many people in Gaza who are inclined to support Hamas. If Israeli forces managed to eliminate all of them, the backlash would be swift and severe globally.
The Gaza Strip, home to around 2.1 million residents, has seen Hamas fielding an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 fighters as part of its military arm, the Iz al-Din al-Kassam Brigade, by October 2023.
Over the course of two years of conflict, Hamas claims that between 6,000 and 7,000 of its fighters have perished, although Israeli and external estimates suggest a higher figure, with reports indicating that 8,500 to 15,000 militants have been lost, amidst a backdrop of approximately 20,000 civilians killed reported by the Wall Street Journal.
For those who genuinely seek a peaceful resolution involving Israel, it’s crucial to recognize that among the remaining citizens of Gaza, there’s a substantial willingness to support Hamas and similar groups.
In a poll conducted in March 2024, only 7% of Gazans expressed disapproval of Hamas, with about 71% backing the group’s decision to attack Israel on October 7, 2023. Surprisingly, around 70% felt satisfied with Hamas’s role during the war.
This polls suggests a grim sense of extremism, as shown by the preference of 56% of voters in both Gaza and the West Bank for Marwan Barghouti in hypothetical elections, compared to just 11% for Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas seems to be attempting to position himself as a legitimate leader in the eyes of the West, despite a significant portion of the Palestinian populace showing little support for him.
The depth of radical views among Gaza’s inhabitants is echoed in an FDD report. Notably, only 5% of Palestinians who believed Hamas might be guilty of war crimes actually reported attacks on them. A concerning statistic reveals that 80% of Palestinians have never witnessed footage of Hamas’s violent actions, with 60% indicating they were shown media suggesting not to view them.
In connection with this, Al Jazeera, backed by Qatar, stands as the most popular news channel, reportedly viewed by 61% of respondents in the previous two months. Some reports also point out that Israelis have denied allegations regarding Hamas using sexual violence as a tactic in warfare.
Tackling security concerns with neighboring nations demands more than just military power and diplomatic discussions. While those might be necessary, they aren’t sufficient. I’m, however, fully committed to the comprehensive strategic attempts to dismantle Hamas, including pursuing its leaders based in Qatar.
Ultimately, genuine peace likely requires unprecedented de-radicalization endeavors.
The UAE’s post-9/11 response to terrorism succeeded in part due to more manageable domestic issues. In contrast, Israel and its allies need to focus on innovative strategies for Gaza and also the West Bank. If the youth grow up trained and conditioned to harbor hatred towards their neighbors, achieving peace seems nearly impossible.
A carefully crafted strategy is essential for what could be over a decade-long campaign against radicalization.
There’s really no alternative route to achieving peace between Israel and its surrounding neighbors.
