The federal government overestimates the number of jobs in the U.S. economy in 2023 by an average of 105,000 jobs per month in its initial reports, amounting to a cumulative monthly difference of 1.3 million jobs, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The cumulative number of jobs reported each month is 1,255,000 fewer than previously thought, with new seasonal and census data impacting total employment estimates. according to Based on BLS data calculated by the Daily Caller News Foundation. December, the only month in which employment levels for 2023 were revised upward, was revised upward by 115,000 people, but this was a significant downward revision. (Related: Key moments from Fed chair's '60 Minutes' interview confuse financial markets)

According to the BLS, the largest revision was in March, with a total of 266,000 people revised downward, followed by January with 234,000 people and April with 205,000 people. The lowest downward revisions were in November at just 2,000, followed by October at 11,000.

“Revisions are a normal part of the reporting process, but major changes or adjustments that consistently move in the same direction are not,” said E. J. Antoni, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation's Grover M. Herman Center on the Federal Budget. he told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Rather, they indicate that something is wrong with the BLS methodology. This could happen if market conditions change significantly and deviate from the assumptions used in the model. There is a gender.”

In the latest revision, the 23-year average month was overstated by 105,000 jobs. BLS wasn’t exactly white… pic.twitter.com/hr5iu6XHKv

— Dr. EJ Antoni (@RealEJAntoni) February 3, 2024

According to the BLS, this revision is due in part to an overestimate of the number of jobs in the U.S. economy in January 2023 by 155,007,000 people, rather than the revised figure of 154,773,000. It has become. Employment levels increased to a revised 157,347,000 by December, with a total of 2,340,000 positions added over the year.

The latest February employment report also announced an adjustment to total employment levels, lowering the number of job openings in March by 266,000, according to the BLS. Employment totals are also adjusted for recent census data, ignoring past estimates.

The downward revision comes as February's jobs report reported a large increase, with U.S. nonfarm payrolls increasing by 353,000 in January, compared to economists' expectations of 180,000. far exceeded.

In recent years, there have not been as many downward revisions as in 2023, and in 2022 there were only five negative revisions, which is equivalent to 66,000 downward revisions in a year. March was the only month in 2021 that was revised downward, with the annual total revised upward by nearly 2 million people as the country recovered from the coronavirus pandemic.

The increase in government positions has led to recent payroll gains, adding a total of 601,000 jobs to the U.S. economy over the past 12 months. This increase brings the number of government job openings to 23,091,000, an all-time high, surpassing the 2010 Census employment surge.

“When the economy was rapidly deteriorating at the beginning of the Great Recession, the BLS repeatedly and consistently overestimated employment levels, which then had to be revised downward,” Antoni told DCNF. “The deterioration in economic conditions was outside of the assumptions used by BLS statisticians, making the estimates inaccurate. The government-imposed recession in 2020 is likely due to the fact that the labor market has not yet recovered.” In the aftermath, similar problems may occur today.”

BLS did not immediately respond to a request for comment from DCNF.

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