MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said Wednesday that Democrats face major obstacles in maintaining control of the Senate.
The Senate the current The Senate is made up of 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans and four independents, but Democrats control the Senate because some independents caucus with the Democratic Party and Vice President Kamala Harris serves as Senate President. Kornacki of the Chris Jansing Report explained that the map works against Democrats in the 2024 election because of the vacant seats and because former President Donald Trump is polling ahead of President Joe Biden. (RELATED: Exclusive: Sen. Chuck Grassley formally endorses President Trump)
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'Ominous signs': MSNBC data expert analyzes Democrats' 'problems' in Senate races pic.twitter.com/gwmfNNgARb
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 17, 2024
“But the problem for them is this map,” Kornacki said. “These are the seats that are up for grabs in the Senate this year. Blue are Democratic seats, red are Republican seats. I think the first question to ask from a Democratic standpoint when you look at this is, are there some obvious states where they can build on these 51 seats? Are any of the seats that Republicans are up for grabs this year in blue states? Now, look at the places I've marked in red. There are no blue states there. These are all states that voted for Donald Trump in 2020. So there's no obvious opportunity for Democrats to launch an attack. Taking a Republican seat would be an upset.”
“But if you flip that question, are there any blue Democrat-held seats in Republican-leaning states? The answer is yes,” he continued. “Actually, there are three. Democrats hold seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. All three Democratic-held Senate seats are up for election this year. Those three states voted for Donald Trump in 2020, and he won West Virginia by 40 points, Montana by over 20 points and Ohio by eight points. So from a Democrats' perspective, if we're not picking up any new Republican seats, this is the reality. If Donald Trump becomes president, Democrats have to defend all three of those seats, with 51 seats remaining.”
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten recently said that Biden's chances of reelection are currently low because of his low approval ratings against Trump in other states he needs to win after the June debate.
“If Biden is reelected, Democrats can afford to lose one of three seats in a Republican state. And with West Virginia, most people in both parties have already said that the Republicans are basically going to win it,” Kornacki said. “So if the Democrats win the presidential election, they just lose West Virginia and nothing else happens. And then there's a second tier here. Just to explain, there are a lot of battleground states here, five of them here. These are all presidential battleground states. All five of these are seats currently held by the Democrats.”
Independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was elected by the Democratic Party but has left the party and announced he will not seek reelection in November. Republican Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia is challenging Manchin's seat and is considered the favorite to win.
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio may have a hard time beating Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno, especially if Trump wins the presidential election, former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza said in June. Cillizza also said Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana will face his “toughest fight yet” against businessman Tim Sheehy.
Nevada Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen's seat is now a 50-50 contest in 2024, where she faces Army veteran Sam Brown. according to Cook Political Report.
Pennsylvania is also a key battleground state in the presidential election, with Democratic Senator Bob Casey facing a challenge from businessman Dave McCormick.
Republicans also have a chance to win Michigan's Senate seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers and current Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin are likely to win their parties' nominations in August's statewide primary.
“The latest polls over the last month or two show Democrats leading in all five battleground states,” he added. “That's good news for Democrats, but there are ominous signs for them. In the same state polls, Donald Trump is leading in four states and tied in the fifth. So if Trump continues to lead in these states, Democrats will have to defy political gravity to hold onto the Senate seats. If the presidential and Senate polls start to line up and Democrats go from blue to red, Democrats could suffer big losses.”
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