Sacramento –

Governor Gavin Newsom has been accused of retaliatory district changes against President Trump and Texas Republicans, a situation some are calling absurd.

The argument goes like this:

Californians once voted decisively to prohibit partisan gerrymandering, transferring the task of redistricting to an independent committee. Now, Newsom seems poised to undermine that voters’ decision.

California Republican Speaker Colin Rankin stated last week that the situation feels orchestrated. He remarked, “This is Gavin, the gaslighter, who overturns the will of the voters and insists it’s for your own good.”

And yet, will it actually negate the voters’ decisions? I’m not so sure it will.

Newsom is encouraging voters to express their current preferences—specifically, asking Republicans to keep control of the U.S. House after the upcoming midterms to counteract Trump’s alleged manipulations of Congressional districts in Texas and elsewhere.

Let’s remember, the anti-partisan gerrymandering vote dates back 15 years. It was a smart and necessary reform, no doubt. But, that was a long time ago.

Just because a vote was cast years ago doesn’t mean it’s unchangeable. Would Californians still vote to ban same-sex marriage or refuse public education to undocumented children? I really doubt it. People’s opinions evolve.

Also, the electorate from 2010 isn’t the same anymore. Voters today have shifted dramatically and shouldn’t feel tethered to earlier decisions.

For instance:

• About 23.6 million Californians were eligible to vote in 2010, but roughly 3.6 million have since died, as noted by a population expert. That’s over 15% of that population.
• Eric McGee, from California’s Nonpartisan Public Policy Institute, noted that “many have left the state, and others have moved in. Plus, millions of children have grown into voting adults.”
• Approximately 6 million more Californians are now eligible to vote compared to 15 years ago, as pointed out by Paul Mitchell, vice president of Politics Data.
• The partisan breakdown has also altered, with registered Democrats enjoying a significant edge now—about 2-to-1 over Republicans—compared to closer margins back in 2010.

Recent research from PPIC suggests that the current migration patterns show that as Republicans leave California, more Democrats are moving in, which is making the state more solidly Democratic.

Consequently, Democrats are not ignoring what voters want; they’re actually requesting today’s electorate to reconsider gerrymandering restrictions and endorse a partisan district plan for the special election on November 4. They argue that the Citizens’ Commission for drawing maps should be reinstated after the 2030 Census.

A constitutional amendment, including Newsom’s plan, has been passed by a Democratic Congress in the state and is expected to be voted on soon.

This will only take effect if Texas or other Republican states comply with Trump’s goals of redrawing Congressional districts to favor Republicans. Trump is aiming for five additional GOP seats in Texas, with Governor Greg Abbott intent on facilitating this.

Newsom’s plan, announced Friday, aims to counteract the Texas strategy and potentially secure five Democratic seats, with California already having a significant advantage in Congressional representation at 43-9.

Neither Newsom nor the Democrats are trying to support gerrymandering. Their stance is that it’s poor politics. They advocate for the Citizens’ Commission’s approach and believe this should be a standard practice nationwide. Yet, it’s not happening, and they argue that failing to respond to the tactics of Red States could disadvantage them.

“It’s not enough just to sit back and express outrage,” Newsom stated during a recent campaign kickoff. “We must recognize the situation as it is and respond in kind.”

However, polling indicates it may be a tough argument to make. A majority of voters believe it’s better for independent citizens’ committees to delineate districts rather than politicians they may not trust.

As Republican strategist Rob Stottzman commented, “It’s complicated to explain to voters why two wrongs somehow make a right.”

Tony Quinn, a former GOP consultant, doubts there’s any way to effectively “educate” voters about districting.

Veteran Democratic strategist Garry South, however, sees things differently: “The message is straightforward: if the issue resonates with voters, they will show up to vote.”

Gerrymandering might not align with what Californians want, but many may still jump at the chance to oppose Trump.

What else should I read?

Must see: Newsom’s strategy of fighting fire with fire may have significant political implications.
TK: A National Guard lawsuit trial assesses whether Trump can limit judicial authority.
Rimes Special: Hundreds of Californians have received $10,000 to relocate to Oklahoma. Did they really find paradise?

Until next week,

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