Immigration and border security issues are uniting Republican voters in California while polarizing Democratic voters, a statewide poll finds.
new discovery University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government PollThis article, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, illustrates some of the political challenges President Biden faces in dealing with the large number of illegal immigrants crossing the US southern border.
Even in California, a Democratic stronghold, a poll found that 62% to 30% of registered voters say the U.S. border is not secure enough to prevent illegal immigration. An even larger majority of likely voters say the border is not secure.
Almost all voters who support former President Trump, who identify as conservatives or Republicans, say the border is unsafe. Among very conservative voters, 88% say the border is unsafe, compared to 8% who say it is.
Democrats, liberals and voters supporting Biden are almost evenly divided. California voters identify as very liberal, with 54% saying the border is secure. 30% say not.
Democrats are also divided on the question of whether illegal immigration poses a burden to the country. Overall, 42% of registered voters say immigration is a “major burden,” 30% say it is a “mild burden,” and 22% say it is not a burden, the survey found.
G. Christina Mora, co-director of the Institute for Governmental Studies, said, “These findings demonstrate that immigration is not clear-cut even in California, whose reputation as a sanctuary state often colors debates on the issue. It shows,” he said.
Pollster Mark DiCamillo said divisions within the Democratic Party could pose a challenge for Biden in the 2024 campaign, even more so in other states than in California. “The probability is [Republican] “You have been in charge of the country for a very long time,” he said.
In California, that influence is likely to play out in competitive congressional elections, where it could help determine the House majority. That includes the race to fill the seat of U.S. Senate candidate Katie Porter (D-Irvine), as well as battleground districts in northern Los Angeles County and the Central Valley. DiCamillo said Republican candidates in those races could center immigration issues as part of their policies.
“This is an issue that could potentially work in favor of Republicans,” he said.
As the number of illegal immigrants crossing the border rises, Mr. Biden has come under fire from Republicans as well as some Democrats who say his border policies are weak.
Democratic mayors of large cities such as New York and Chicago have criticized the federal government's response to the problem, saying the influx of immigrants is straining services.
In Congress, Republicans have pushed for Biden to agree to sweeping changes to immigration policy, particularly regarding immigrants' legal right to seek asylum in the U.S. In the Senate, Republicans have pushed for a border deal in exchange for voting yes on deportations. Additional aid to Ukraine is a top priority for Biden.
Illegal immigration across the U.S. southern border reached record levels in fiscal year 2023, which ended in September. Over 2 million people for 2nd consecutive year.
Many migrants arriving at the southern border seek asylum, alleging persecution in their home countries. But the problem does not end at the border. Thousands of people enter the country every day, overwhelming the country's aging immigration system and creating a backlog of asylum applications. Asylum seekers released into the United States and given court dates have been waiting for years. Even if it's not 10 yearsto appear before a judge.
Mr. Biden has indicated he is willing to accept at least some of the Republican demands, angering some Democrats and immigration advocates.
But reaching a deal remains an uphill battle, and polls show how the issue unites the Republican voting bloc while dividing Democrats.
Opinion polls show voters are divided over their views on the country's asylum laws. Republican voters, conservatives and voters who support Mr. Trump agree that the law is too lenient.
Democrats, on the other hand, are divided, with 17% saying the law is too lenient, 29% saying it's about right and 33% saying it's too restrictive. But among people who identify as very liberal, a majority (56%) say the law is too restrictive, 6% say it's too lenient, and 24% say it's about right.
The poll found that views on asylum laws do not vary significantly by race or ethnicity.
The poll also found widespread skepticism about whether the new law will be effective in reducing the number of migrants arriving at the border. 45% of voters think the new law is effective. 42% said they would not. Liberal voters are much more likely than conservatives to say new laws are ineffective.
Immigrants are more likely than native-born voters to say new laws will affect them. Fifty-three percent of California voters born in other countries said the law would affect them, and 32% said it would not affect them. Indigenous-born voters are split down the middle on this question.
of Berkeley IGS Poll The survey was conducted online from January 4 to 8 among a random sample of 8,199 California registered voters, including a weighted subsample of 4,470 people likely to participate in the March 5 primary. It was carried out in
Results are weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so estimates of the margin of error may be inaccurate. The results include an estimated error of his 1.5 percentage points in either direction for the entire sample.
