Half of California's registered voters consider the state's budget deficit an “extremely serious” problem, and 57% say the state's I think we are heading in the wrong direction.
The survey was conducted just days before Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the outline of a $291.5 billion spending plan for next fiscal year and plans to address the administration's projected $37.9 billion budget deficit. However dire, Mr. Newsom's estimate of the shortfall is brighter than the Legislative Analysis Service's projection of a $68 billion budget hole in December.
“Voters are concerned about this, and they're going to demand that the governor and the Legislature do something about it,” said Mark DiCamillo, Berkeley poll director and longtime California pollster.
Because the state budget relies heavily on capital gains taxes paid by California's highest earners, state revenues are subject to fluctuations in the stock market.
Lower-than-expected revenues, missed tax deadlines, and overspending based on inaccurate budget projections have created a difficult fiscal situation for California.
The governor's proposed solution includes declaring a budget emergency to dismantle the state's rainy day reserves. Cut spending by $8.5 billion from programs that support climate action, housing, and other services. Reconsider raising the minimum wage for health care workers.
When asked how they think California should offset its budget deficit, a majority of voters (51%) support cutting government services and 35% want to use a rainy day fund. . Among the less popular savings measures, her 17% of voters want to borrow from a special fund.
The governor and voters seem to agree that they oppose tax increases, but a Berkeley poll found only 13% supported raising taxes.
California Congressman Alex Lee (D-San Jose) proposed a tax increase based on: his proposed wealth tax law, would impose a 1.5% tax on net assets over $1 billion in 2024 and 2025. As of 2026, net worth over $50 million will be taxed at 1%, and net worth over $1 billion will be taxed at an additional 0.5%.
The governor has repeatedly rejected the idea of raising state taxes to cover the deficit.
DiCamillo said tax support for the wealthy laid the foundation for California's progressive tax structure, which led to wild swings in the state's revenue.
Newsom's approval rating of 46% in the January poll is essentially unchanged from late October, when voters gave him a historically low rating. The latest poll found that 47% disapprove of his job performance as governor. Mr. Newsom's term ends in 2026, so there is no need to worry about his re-election.
The shortfall creates a new political dilemma, as Mr. Newsom faces difficult spending decisions in coming months of budget negotiations with lawmakers that could frustrate allies and voters.
Environmental groups pushed back against the governor's proposed nearly $3 billion in cuts to climate change programs. Other groups, such as the County Human Services Directors Association, were concerned about cuts in funding for social services.
Overall, voters expressed little confidence in the state's direction. Fifty-seven percent say California is heading in the wrong direction, and only a third say things are going right, the poll found.
of Berkeley IGS Poll The survey was conducted online from January 4 to 8 among a random sample of 8,199 California registered voters, including a weighted subsample of 4,470 people likely to participate in the March 5 primary. It was carried out in
Results are weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so estimates of the margin of error may be inaccurate. The results include an estimated error of his 1.5 percentage points in either direction for the entire sample.
