A Democratic pollster on Tuesday urged the party not to “underestimate” Donald Trump's ability to rally support from voters not reflected in the polls, and cast doubt on whether Vice President Kamala Harris can comfortably win the presidential election in November.
Polls between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump are neck and neck in battleground states, with Harris showing a slight lead in some national polls. But Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told Pod Save America that while she wasn't initially worried about the polls between Trump and President Joe Biden, she now believes there may be some Trump supporters not being reflected in the polls. (Related: Mark Halperin says Democrats could be in a “scary position” as some polls show Harris “not even leading” in battleground states.)
“So I wasn't worried at all because I was originally against Biden. There are no shy Trump voters at all. Are we going to make Trump more MAGA? So I wasn't worried at all. But now I think that might happen. Some voters might get to the point where Trump says not to respond to polls. That really affected us,” Lake said.
“We've all made significant changes to our methodology. We're looking at multiple scenarios of turnout. We're all making sure we're not replacing Trump voters with Biden voters, and so on,” Lake continued. “But I'm always nervous about that, and I'm always nervous about spikes in turnout. They've also done quite a bit with mail-in voting. They're working on mail-in voting now, and Trump specifically wants mail-in voting. That's dangerous on two fronts: It could increase their turnout.”
Lake said inaccurate polls could “significantly reduce the splitting of the vote,” and explained how mail-in voting could affect women's decisions about who to vote for this November.
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“It's also dangerous because it would drastically reduce the splitting of votes. If a woman can vote at the polls, she can make her own decision with her priorities. A couple will sit together and vote by mail, and the wife will be eager to mark Hillary or Harris, and the husband will say, 'What are you doing? We're not voting for Harris, we're voting for Trump,' and the wife will say, 'Enough is enough. Let's stop fighting about this.' That worries me too,” Lake said.
“So I worry, and I think you all know that independents are leading by four points, nine points in the polls right now,” Lake continued, “but I always worry about underestimating Trump’s approval rating. [sic]however disgusting we may find them, they may be strengthened.”
Despite the close polling, Trump is leading among key Democratic constituencies such as Latinos, who trust him more than Harris on the economy and immigration, due to issues such as the border crisis and inflation. According to According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Average Data Real Clear Politics The race remains close in key battleground states, with Trump leading 0.2% to 1% in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris leads 0.5% to 1.4% in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. National polls of both candidates show Harris leading by just under two points, with the vice president receiving 48.1% of the vote to Trump's 46.2%.
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