California’s Congressional Map Overhaul
Governor Gavin Newsom has initiated a significant transformation of California’s Congressional districts.
Recent analysis of election results suggests that a proposal on the November 4 ballot, labeled Proposition 50, could increase the number of Democratic-held districts from 41 to 47. Currently, Democrats occupy 215 seats in the House.
This initiative, backed by state and national Democratic leaders, follows a similar redistricting move in Texas. They’re also encouraging Republican-led states to adjust their maps ahead of the 2026 midterms to maintain their foothold. The state legislature recently approved Newsom’s proposal, which will be presented to voters during a special election in November. Meanwhile, California Republicans have filed a lawsuit in the state Supreme Court to challenge the voting proposal.
To understand how the proposed changes might affect Congressional dynamics, The Times analyzed 2024 presidential election data, examining the margins of victory for both Democrats and Republicans in the newly drawn districts.
Some districts will be reconfigured to incorporate more liberal areas, creating shifts in political leanings. For instance, four previously Republican-leaning swing districts are now leaning slightly Democratic, while two others are tilting further left. Conversely, four remaining Republican strongholds will become even more Republican under the proposed changes.
District 1: Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale)
California’s First Congressional District currently stretches from the Oregon border down almost to Sacramento, represented by Republican Doug LaMalfa for over a decade, most recently winning nearly two-thirds of the vote last November.
The proposed map divides this district into two segments. The new First District runs inland from Santa Rosa through Chico to the Nevada border, while the second district follows the North Coast’s border with Oregon and includes the staunchly Republican Shasta County.
The Times’ findings indicate that the new District 1 will see a striking Democratic shift, changing from a 25-point Trump advantage to a 12-point Harris advantage, facilitated by including more Democratic areas from District 2.
District 3: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin)
Since 2022, Rep. Kevin Kiley has represented District 3, but the newly drawn lines pose a significant challenge for his re-election. The updated boundaries will pull out conservative sections and attract Democratic voters from Sacramento.
The current District 3 leaned Trump by four points, but under Newsom’s proposed map, it would favor Harris by ten points, reflecting a notable 14-point shift from purple to solid blue.
Kiley, whose district is largely affected by these changes, is advocating for a halt to all medium-term council districts as District 3’s territory diminishes, and demographic shifts could further disadvantage Republicans.
District 41: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona)
Rep. Ken Calvert’s current District 41, once a competitive seat in the Western Inland Empire, will be entirely redrawn within Los Angeles County, evolving from a potential GOP foothold to a district favoring Democrats by a 14-point margin.
Parts of the new 41st District will come from the existing 38th District, currently represented by Democrat Linda Sanchez, which could lead to a slight weakening of her seat while still bolstering Democratic competitiveness in the new 41st.
The anticipated demographic changes suggest an increase in the Hispanic population, further solidifying Democratic advantages. The proposed plan includes 16 majority-minority districts, maintaining the current number, though swapping District 41 for District 42.
District 48: Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall)
District 48, under Republican Darrell Issa, currently boasts a 15-point GOP margin but may undergo significant changes by shifting voters towards San Diego County, potentially reinforcing the Democratic edge. The demographic landscape is also set to change, with Latinos expected to comprise 32% of eligible voters, up from the previous 24%. The redistricting could turn this once safe Republican seat into a competitive district with a narrow Democratic advantage.
Strengthening Democratic Positions
Besides converting Republican-leaning swing districts, the redistricting strategy aims to fortify vulnerable Democratic seats, particularly those along the coast in Orange County. Some Democratic incumbents have faced close calls; Rep. Derek Tran won by just 650 votes, while Rep. Dave Min’s win last November was by under three points.
Currently, Harris won the 45th District by a narrow margin of 1.5 points, and the 47th District by four points. Newsom’s redistricting plan could widen those margins to four and ten points, respectively, creating a more secure environment for Democrats.
Additionally, the proposed changes threaten to dilute Republican voter bases in both Rep. David Valadao’s 22nd District and Adam Gray’s 13th District.
