There's no hiding the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win Michigan as much as we need to breathe air, but former President Donald Trump is taking steps that could end her electoral chances in the state.
Several issues are converging against Harris in Michigan, making her path to victory there more difficult.
As part of a larger ground operation to retake Michigan, the Trump campaign is targeting “low-initiated” voters. These voters typically don't vote in every election, so they need to be tracked down and persuaded to show up to vote. The campaign is working to get this large group of voters involved in the 2024 election.
More than a dozen Michigan Republicans said The Detroit News reported that they had identified between 200,000 and 500,000 voters to persuade to vote for Trump. Pete Hoekstra, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, told the paper that the Trump campaign's strategy was a low-key approach, with Michigan Republican volunteers canvassing people and making phone calls and other repeated contact. Luke: If state GOP plan works, Harris' path to victory is the road to hell.
“Given the number of people we've gathered through the party and other organizations, we're probably able to mount the best ground-based effort we've had in decades,” Hoekstra said.
🚨BREAKING: The Trump campaign in Michigan is targeting between 200,000 and 500,000 “low-intentioned” voters and is focusing on increasing turnout among them.
“Strategies to reach voters with low propensity to vote include Republican volunteers spending time canvassing door-to-door and making repeated phone contacts…” pic.twitter.com/EFH2IXlHAs
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 23, 2024
Brian Pannebecker, a Macomb County resident who started a pro-Trump United Auto Workers Facebook page, told The Detroit News that their plan involves having volunteers repeatedly reach out to at least 10 “low-intention” voters before Nov. 5.
“They tripled or quadrupled their voting power,” Pannebecker said of the volunteers' voter outreach efforts, with the goal being to get three or four in 10 people to vote.
Trump lost Michigan to President Joe Biden by about 154,000 votes in 2020, according to the latest Emerson College poll. show Trump trails Harris in Michigan by just 2 points (within the margin of error). In fact, Emerson College Polling Director Spencer Kimball said Harris has lost support in Michigan since the last poll in August. If Harris wins again in Michigan, the state Republican Party believes it will be mainly due to her down-home outreach to Michigan voters.
NEW: Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Trump leading in most battleground states, but race remains close
GA:
Trump 50
Harris 47A-Z:
Trump 49
Harris 48WI:
Trump 49
Harris 48PA:
Trump 48
Harris 47Nevada:
Trump 48
Harris 48North Carolina
Trump 49
Harris 48Michigan
Trump 47
Harris 499/15-9/18
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) September 23, 2024
Another blow to Harris was the refusal of the Teamsters union, a longtime staunch supporter of Democratic presidential candidates, to endorse her campaign, which also did not endorse Trump, likely compounding the blow to Harris. Internal poll This shows that Trump is the overwhelmingly popular candidate among members. Luke: Biden's problems have turned into an election nightmare for Harris
Michigan is a blue-collar state with about 245,000 active and retired Teamsters members. The Harris campaign has not been able to convert them to supporters, according to the Teamsters' internal polling. In fact, the Harris campaign is losing ground Democrats have gained over the past decade. In July, Biden held an 8-point lead over Trump, according to internal polling. Harris is now trailing Trump by nearly 26 points in a September poll.
Teamsters releases presidential support poll data
“Over the past year, the Teamsters union has pledged to conduct the most inclusive, democratic and transparent presidential confirmation process in the 121-year history of our organization, and today we are delivering on that pledge… pic.twitter.com/CnFNN9uosx
— Teamsters (@Teamsters) September 18, 2024
Amir Ghalib, the Democratic mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, endorsed Trump's campaign on Sunday. Facebook Post That's now a hot topic.
“While President Trump and I don't agree on everything, I know he is a man of principle,” Ghalib said. “Things are looking up, but I don't know if he will win the election and become the 47th president of the United States. But I believe he is the right choice at this critical time.”
“Whatever the outcome, I will not regret my decision and I am ready to face the consequences,” he added.
A win in Michigan for either candidate would mean securing the state's 15 electoral votes in a highly competitive race. Election Strategy The success of the victory depends on whether Harris can win the “Great Lakes states” including Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is already a disadvantage for Harris, and if Trump can win Michigan through an intensive, low-key campaign, Harris' dream of living in the White House will be over.
