The race for second place in California's U.S. Senate race between Rep. Katie Porter and former Dodgers star Steve Garvey looks precarious as the March 5 primary approaches, according to new reports. is University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government The poll was co-sponsored by The Times.

Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank has a 4-point lead in what has so far been a lackluster race, but each candidate has launched a televised political ad campaign. The situation could change as three elections are scheduled to clash. Discussions will take place over the next two months.

According to the survey, Porter (D-Irvine) trailed Schiff slightly and placed Garvey, the top Republican in the race, in a close second place.

Mr. Schiff has the support of 21% of voters, compared to 17% for Mr. Porter and 13% for Mr. Garvey. An October Berkeley poll showed Mr. Schiff and Mr. Porter tied.

Another top Democrat, Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland, was supported by 9% of likely voters, the poll found.About a fifth of voters surveyed chose one of the other 23 candidates on the crowded ballot, while the rest said they were undecided.

The top two vote-getters will face off in November, regardless of party or vote share. Given the Democratic Party's large registration advantage in the state, Mr. Garvey would be at a significant disadvantage if he were to advance to the general election.

The poll also revealed how divided voters' opinions over the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip are affecting the election campaign.

Voters will be asked to vote in two separate Senate races on their March ballots. One is a six-year term in the Senate that begins in January. The other is the remaining months of late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's term.

Only seven candidates are listed in the second election race, and opinion polls show a close margin. Mr. Schiff remains at the top of likely voters with 21% support. Mr. Porter has 18%, Mr. Garvey has 17%, Mr. Lee has 12% and Republican Eric Early has 11%.

Mark DiCamillo, director of polling at the Institute for Governmental Research and a longtime California pollster, said the contrast between the two races is that Garvey's support increases as the numbers of candidates, especially Republicans, solidify. He said it shows.

Mr. DiCamillo said this is evidence that Mr. Garvey has a better chance of finishing in the top two in the March primary and qualifying for the general election in November than holding two Democratic conventions in the fall. He said that it shows.

“The open question is who will come in second place,” he said. “Our polls still have Katie Porter ahead of Garvey, although there is some movement in Garvey's favor in every poll.” said.

“Certainly he has a chance to rally Republican votes. I think this argument will be helpful in this regard.”

Mr. Garvey's approval rating has nearly doubled since the August Berkeley poll, while Mr. Porter's approval rating has remained about the same.

The poll found that of the top four candidates, Schiff is the only one that a majority of likely voters are well aware of and have an impression of. Schiff, A ubiquitous guest on a cable news showgained national attention when she led then-President Trump's first impeachment trial.

About 43% of likely voters had a favorable view of Schiff, while 31% had an unfavorable view. He is popular among Democrats (67% have a favorable view) and unpopular among Republicans (68% have an unfavorable view).

Although Porter is less well-known, she remains popular, with 39% of likely voters saying they had a favorable impression of her. Only 16% said they had a negative impression of her. The rest had no opinion.

Mr. Garvey officially entered In the October race, he hopes to capitalize on his fame among older sports fans. The 75-year-old played for the Dodgers and San Diego Padres, but hasn't been on the field since the 1980s. He was viewed favorably by 24% of likely voters and unfavorably by 21%, while the remainder had no opinion of him.

Mr. Schiff's narrow lead is due in part to his increasing support over the past few months in voter-heavy Los Angeles County. An October poll showed Mr. Porter leading Mr. Schiff by 4 points (22% to 18%). Currently, rates are increasing at the same rate (23% vs. 19%) within the county. Mr. Schiff also leads by wide margins in the Bay Area, Central Valley and Sacramento regions.

Porter is up 12 points (24% to 12%) in his home state of Orange County, but the two are about even in the Inland Empire and San Diego areas.

The Israel-Hamas war, currently the most powerful political issue, presents a very different coalition supporting each major candidate. Schiff is Israel's vocal supporter and President Biden's regional strategy. Both Mr. Schiff and Mr. Garvey argue that the United States should continue providing military aid to Israel.

Both Lee and Porter support a ceasefire. Mr. Lee opposes further military aid to Israel, and Mr. Porter calls for a “robust discussion” about military aid.

Schiff supporters were much more likely to support Biden's war response than Garvey or Lee supporters. Mr. Porter's supporters were divided on how they felt about Mr. Biden's diplomatic response in the wake of the October 7 Hamas massacre in Israel.

About 8 in 10 Garvey supporters were more sympathetic to Israel than to Palestinians, while Lee supporters were more than 2 to 1 sympathetic to Palestinians.

About half of Schiff supporters and 40% of Porter supporters said they were equally sympathetic to both sides of the conflict.

The coalitions supporting each candidate have shifted slightly in recent months.

Mr. Porter still receives the most support from voters under 50 and those who identify as liberals. Mr. Schiff leads among voters 65 and older and among voters who identify as moderately liberal. Mr. Schiff and Mr. Porter had a roughly equal share among voters who identified themselves as Democrats in October. Schiff currently holds a 10 percentage point lead among that very large voting bloc.

Mr. Lee, who? He is one of three black congressmen from California. While he was leading among black voters statewide, he is now essentially tied with Schiff, who leads among Asian American/Pacific Islander voters and white voters. Mr. Schiff and Mr. Porter are essentially tied among Latino voters.

One thing that remains unclear is how voters will respond to the barrage of TV ads that will soon begin in the state.

Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist who worked on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign team, said it's hard to assess a California candidate's true political strength until they start airing TV ads.

Porter said, “Start TV right now. Schiff will be right behind her in a few days. He probably has more, but she has more charisma. If we’re successful, there’s a little more rocket fuel there,” Murphy said.

“The Democratic camp is crazy about Mr. Garvey. It's not because they care. [Garvey winning in] November. If Schiff finishes second, he just won the lottery. ”

Mr. Porter and Mr. Schiff began or plan to begin airing ads this week on cable and broadcast television in the San Jose and Oakland markets of the Bay Area.

Schiff's ads highlight some of his accomplishments in Congress. Porter's ad focuses on how she plans to “shake up the Senate” by banning minutes, abolishing the filibuster and banning senators from trading individual stocks, among other proposals.

A spokesperson for Schiff said Porter's campaign spent “more than $700,000” on advertising. Said According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the company made a “seven-figure ad buy.”

Schiff has significant economic advantages over its competitors. His campaign revealed last week that it had $35 million on hand at the end of the year after its last fundraising quarter.

Mr. Porter had about $12 million in cash at the end of September, according to campaign disclosures. Mr. Lee fell further behind with $1.3 million through September, according to the filing.

of Berkeley IGS Poll surveyed 4,470 registered voters in California who are considered likely to participate in the March primary. The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from January 4th to 8th.

Results are weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so estimates of the margin of error may be inaccurate. However, the results for a sample of likely voters have an estimated error of his 2 percentage points in either direction.