The battle for the 2024 Senate began on a high note earlier this year and continues to thrive as top-fighting candidates continue to campaign and incumbents struggle for re-election. Their efforts will determine who will rule the Senate for the next two years.

Democrats are trying to defend in many equatorial states to retain a one-seat majority, while Republicans are battling recruiting wars in several states to get the best shot at winning a majority. there is

It’s too early to tell which side’s ploy will work, but here’s a midsummer rundown of the five Senate seats most likely to be reversed next year.

west virginia

The top spot in these rankings remains as Sen. Joe Manchin (D. Virginia) faces a real uphill battle to retain his seat and secure a third term in the Senate. does not change.

Republicans are skeptical about the possibility of dethroning Mr. Manchin, and unlike 2018, the best candidate to do so appears to be West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (Republican). .Ann East Carolina University (ECU) Survey Statistics released in late May showed the Justices leading the incumbent centrist Democrats by more than 20 percentage points.

For justice to rise that far, it must overcome a potentially difficult challenge to conservative-backed Rep. Alex Mooney (R-VA). ECU polls also show Justice trailing Mooney by 40 points, but part of that advantage is due to his huge name recognition.

Manchin, who is facing political challenges in his home country, has said he plans to oppose all candidates for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and voted against multiple judicial elections in recent weeks. It is attacking the president’s successive nominations of candidates. He also opposes the nomination of Mr. Biden’s chief economic adviser, and is likely to oppose the nomination to head the Labor Department if Julie Hsu enters the parliamentary vote.

However, the Allies argue that this is nothing unusual, just the way he does it.

“The opposition these days is who he usually is. He judges all candidates the same way,” said John Cott, a former spokesman for Mr. Manchin. I pointed out that I was talking to him about what to consider. “He said, ‘I look at them and say, are they good for West Virginia and good for the country?’

“It’s political season, so I think there’s more scrutiny,” Cott added.

Of course, Manchin has not yet announced whether he will even seek re-election, with a decision expected just before the December or January deadline for submissions, and he continues to run for a third-party presidential election.

Montana

The day that former Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Tim Sheehy threw his hat into the ring and gave Republicans the biggest hopes of finally defeating Sen. It’s been a big week.

Sheehy is the chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee and one of this season’s top rookie candidates for Senator Steve Danes (R, Montana), who really wants to overthrow the three-term Montana Democrat. The newly elected Republican nominee has a lot in store for him, led by his business background, military service, and hefty bank account, but the trio argue that the Republican Party is great.

Strategists say he looks great on paper, but a first-time billionaire candidate may have trouble winning voters’ sympathies. This was seen last cycle when Pennsylvania’s David McCormick couldn’t escape the primary and has since lamented not finding a spur until it was too late. Ironically, he’s also at the top of Danes’ wish list this year.

But for now, Republicans hold Sheehy in high regard.

“Mr. Tester has proven tough, and if he really wants to win the seat, he needs to run the best candidate,” a national Republican strategist told The Hill. “Obviously he doesn’t want to play Sheehy. That should tell you all there is to know.”

Sheehy will likely have to beat Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont) in the primary, while the Democrats will vote for Tester after the incumbent senator defeated him by 3.5 percentage points. And I’m desperate for a rematch of Mr. Rosendale. Rosendale, who has run multiple times across the state, has a strong right-wing support base and a rising profile, but lackluster fundraising and problems in the last Senate election. She has many problems, including her Maryland accent.

Ohio

Rounding out the three seats Republicans most hope to flip is Buckeye, where the Republicans have the greatest chance of defeating Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Mr. Brown has proven difficult for Republicans in each re-election run, winning by 6 and 6 percentage points respectively. But Ohio leaned further to the right during this time, with former President Trump leading the state by 8 percentage points in 2020 despite losing the election. Simply put, the hottest battleground states are redder than ever, but whether that’s enough to beat Brown remains to be seen.

So far, only two top Republicans, Senators Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno, have announced their candidacy, and the other is Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (Republican). likely to. An Ohio Republican official told The Hill that Mr. LaRose is expected to jump into the race in July, and it will be a tough three-way race with many balls in the air.

An Ohio Republican official asked to predict a three-way primary said Moreno was likely to win Trump’s endorsement, especially given that LaRose was the only one in the group who couldn’t raise his own money. , said there could be problems with funding. as he pointed out.

“Mr Moreno is the favorite, but as a first-time candidate he will make some mistakes,” the person said. “The question is, is that a good enough chance for either of the other two?”

Arizona

Of all the states on this list, perhaps no one is more racially different than the Battle of Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D, Ariz.) is still the Democratic no. Although he plans to announce his candidacy, Sen. Kirsten Cinema of Eye, Arizona is still an independent and has not said whether he will seek re-election next year.

Gallego announced his candidacy in late January and is currently on par with the Democrats. The Arizona Democrats won a huge $3.7 million vote in the first quarter, outscoring Cinema by $1.6 million during that time, giving Democrats hope they can hold onto the seat next year. Last week, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-California) endorsed her candidacy, boosting support from the left.

“He looks like he’s doing what he’s supposed to do. Heads down. Building a brand,” a Democratic operative with ties to Arizona told The Hill, and Gallego has so far said he’s criticized by Greg Stanton. He pointed out that the House of Representatives (Democrat, Arizona) is avoiding a painful primary to decline to run.

On the Republican side, all signs still point to Lake, who has effectively frozen the playing field until he decides whether to jump into the Senate as his party. make false claims After losing to Governor Katie Hobbs (Democrat) in November, she claimed to be the “legal governor of Arizona.”

But Lake met with more than a few Republican senators during a visit to Washington in mid-May and took a step toward a potential bid. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb also ran for the Republican primary.

Meanwhile, despite submitting documents for the tender, Cinema has remained silent when asked about his plans for 2024 in various interviews. As the three-way general election battle opens doors never before seen in state elections, her impact on the campaign remains an unknown.

“It’s hard to say either way,” a Democratic operative said of the three-way race.

Wisconsin

Finally, with Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) seeking a third term, and Republicans trying to figure out the best candidate to reject his six-year term, Wisconsin became the only new entrant to the list.

Like the other Democratic incumbents mentioned above, Mr. Baldwin has proven to be a real challenger to Republicans in every Senate election. After defeating former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson (R) for the seat in 2012, followed by an impressive double-digit win in 2018, he’s a seasoned congressman to rely on in what could be a tough cycle for Democrats. gave one more.

“What makes Baldwin incredibly difficult to beat is that she’s worked hard and has 15 wins to prove it,” Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns, a Democrat, said last year. ) campaign, said Joshua Karp, a Democratic operative who advised the campaign. . “Wisconsin is a state where people expect to have a personal relationship with their leaders, and Baldwin puts in a personal touch and it shows.”

Republicans are weighing possible options. But it took a hit in recent weeks when Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisconsin) announced that he would focus on his work as head of a newly created task force on China in his bid for re-election in the House of Representatives. .

Now they’re looking for two self-funders to take over for Baldwin.

Eric Hobde, a former hedge fund manager who narrowly lost to Thompson in the 2012 Senate primary, is seen as a force to be reckoned with thanks to his huge war chest and statewide campaign experience. . A Wisconsin Republican operative recently pointed out that Mr. Hobde has suggested spending at least $20 million of his personal fortune.

The second self-financed person considering doing so is businessman Scott Mayer, who is likely make a decision after labor day. Weaknesses: He has almost zero name ID in the state. Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) also recently admitted that he doesn’t know Mayer very well.

Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wisconsin) is also being considered as an option, but would have to give up his Ruby Red seat to run.

But outside forces will likely be key to Republicans ousting Mr. Baldwin. What will happen to Biden’s position in the state next year? And will the GOP nominate Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (Republican), or someone else next year? These are issues that will have a major impact on the Senate election campaign.

DeSantis is in a deadlock with Trump and would be better off in a one-on-one confrontation with the president, according to the latest Marquette Law poll. That would give the Republican Party an advantage in retaining the seat.