Arizona Senator Kirsten Cinema continues to rank as America’s least popular senator even after leaving the Democratic Party, according to Morning Consult Political Intelligence.

But less than two years into a possible 2024 re-election campaign, a survey conducted after she announced her decision to go independent showed her popularity among independent and Republican voters in Arizona. but revealed changes in the coalition that hastened her descent with state Democrats.

Her overall approval ratings changed only slightly after Cinema announced that she would be seceding from the Democratic Party on December 9. But among the state’s Democrats who helped her win her seat in the 2018 midterm elections, Cinema’s disapproval rating climbed 18 percentage points to 59%.

During the same period, her approval ratings soared among Independents (29% to 42%) and Republicans (38% to 43%), and her ratings were mixed among these groups.

Even before Cinema left the party, Arizona Democrats were divided over her job performance — making her the least popular Democratic Senator among Democratic voters in the fourth quarter of 2022. was enough for Work by Rep. Ruben Gallego.

If Cinema seeks re-election as an independent next year, state political strategists say the importance of her new position among Arizona’s Republicans and independents is a candidate with broader appeal for the state’s Republican Party. I think it is highly likely that it will depend on whether or not to promote the She’s reaching for the extreme as she’s been nominated for statewide offices like governor and senator in 2022.

Some Arizona Republicans see Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb or 2022 Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters as potential candidates to appeal to the Republican Party’s right flank next year. It attracts people looking for candidates with broader appeal.

How Cinema Stacks Up Against The Rest Of The Senate

Latest quarterly rankings based on surveys conducted October 1-December. His 31 in each state makes cinema one of his five least popular senators, and another major liberal agitator, West Senator Joe Manchin of Virginia is also due for re-election next year.The moderate Democrat has seen his position at home ups and downs upon both sides of the aisle Since early 2021, he has stalled President Joe Biden’s domestic policy package, eventually coming to support the Inflation Reduction Act.

Manchin’s unpopularity at home has led Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R. – Kentucky) is overshadowed only by

Meanwhile, Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, is the most popular senator in the United States, with a 66% approval rating. He is followed by Senate Republican John Thune, retired Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy, and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). The second place candidate’s approval rating among voters in that state was 64%.

2024 Most Vulnerable Senators Details

Arizona and West Virginia’s respective woes for senators heading up for re-election next year contrast sharply with public opinion elsewhere against vulnerable incumbents.

In Virginia, which has dealt some blows to Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine over the past few years, voters in the state are 43% more likely to approve than disapprove of his performance, 43% to 39%. High. Voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania are also more likely to give Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown (43%) and Bob Casey (42%) a positive rating, while Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin and Jackie Rosen of Nevada (who is the least-known senator at the top, seeking re-election next year) both continue to languish, with approval ratings nearly matching disapproval ratings.

And Montana is a state with a not-so-distant history of bipartisan voting in each presidential election since 2012. Boasting a 60% approval rating, he is the most popular incumbent facing a tough 2024 contest if he decides to launch another campaign.

Since Biden took office in 2021, Tester’s approval rating has improved by 12 percentage points. This is largely due to a surge in independent support in recent months. Sixty-five percent of his independent voters supported Mr. Tester’s performance, the highest rating among a group of other senators during this period. Q4 2022.

How senators will get along with their own voters in 2024

In addition to Tester’s strong ratings from independents, he also has solid support from Montana’s Democrats. In fact, he is stronger than any other Democrat facing re-election next fall.

Nine out of 10 Democrats in Montana approve of the tester’s work, and two-thirds of them “strongly” do so. Minnesota Senators Amy Klobuchar (84%) and Chris Murphy (82%) occupy the top three spots.

Manchin, with a 53% approval rating among Democrats, is the weakest Senate Democrat with voters of his own party. Given his record of wins in states where he is, he is unlikely to face any serious major challenges.

Winning in the general election is not a major concern for Republican incumbents in the Senate next year. Most appear to be in a solid position.

Barrasso, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Ted Cruz of Texas, Kevin Kramer of North Dakota, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Rick Scott of Florida all have more than 70% Republican approval in their respective states. increase.

Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah), the 2012 Republican presidential nominee and the man who cast two votes to convict then-President Donald Trump in the impeachment trial, is on the right. It looks like you have a problem.

Only 41% of Utah Republicans approve of Romney’s ability to do the job, while 54% disapprove. As he considers his re-election campaign, Romney’s popularity is slightly higher than it was during Trump’s second impeachment trial in the first quarter of 2021.

Morning Consult state-level survey data weights each state separately based on age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, and presidential voting history. Also, for a subset of states, exchanges by race and age by education.

The margin of error for responses from all voters in each state is 1-5 points. For more detailed information, you can download his 50-state dataset of senator approval ratings among all voters. here.