Thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon in southeastern Arizona, and stronger convective gusts could cause localized heavy rainfall and flooding, according to Arizona weather forecasters. Thunderstorms will continue to affect Cochise, Santa Cruz, and southeastern Pima counties today.

Today’s thunderstorms will start around 1pm and continue on a slightly more westerly track than yesterday until 7pm. The anticipated main track area will cover Sierra Vista, Whitstone, Benson, Elgin, Sonoita, Sahuarita, southeastern Pima County, and even Tucson. It covers all of Cochise County in more isolated areas, as well as the central part of the county, the northern Wilcox area, and the eastern area. Additionally, convection currents may weaken today in southern Apache County, closer to the Alpine. In addition, thunderstorms may extend to southern Graham County. The farther north the thunderstorm activity is, the lower the chance of precipitation and the higher the chance of dry lightning.

Interestingly, the high-res model HRW FV3 is even more erratic today than yesterday, with LI -3 to -4, CAPE 600 to 700, and Total Totals 52, but no serious signs of hail or tornadoes. is not. The skew T also indicates a precipitable moisture content of 1.26 inches. In addition, strong gust outflow boundaries with potential are expected. 40-60 mph winds with this storm. In addition, the model also shows the following areas: heavy rain of 1 inch or more possible for Northern Santa Cruz County to Southeastern Pima County today. This is especially true over the Santa Rita Mountains. Otherwise, in isolated thunderstorms, 0.5 inch or more If there is a thunderstorm overhead, it may rain.

Cochise County, Santa Cruz County, and southeastern Pima are likely to experience a second wave of thunderstorms today, with a wetter influx than yesterday. Localized flooding can therefore occur, especially as this water flows downhill in the terrain. Be careful driving in flood prone areas this afternoon and turn back if you see water running across the road. Rain is fun to watch, but be safe outside! This is the beginning of the late monsoon. Unfortunately, the rest of the state, especially southwest Arizona to the Phoenix metropolitan area, will experience hot, dry weather.