Louisville resides in Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District. A past Congressional representative expresses concerns that Nashville is raising alarms about potentially dividing the state’s largest city into separate districts.
The unsettling possibility of mid-term gerrymandering is emerging in Kentucky, and the potential fallout for the state’s federal representation is significant.
The situation started when former President Donald Trump called on Texas legislators to redraw congressional district lines to secure more Republican seats, reinforcing the party’s slim majority in the U.S. House. As was anticipated, the Texas GOP, with support from Governor Greg Abbott, aligned with Trump’s directive. In response, California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom has initiated steps to create a similar balance in California.
Typically, redistricting happens every decade following the census, which makes sense since House seats are allocated based on population—populations that can change dramatically over ten years.
It’s rather uncommon for states to adjust district boundaries outside of census periods, unless ordered by a court. In fact, since 1970, really only Texas (twice) and Georgia have redrawn lines for political gain. However, significant redistricting talks are forming now, with states under single-party control feeling pressured to participate, and Kentucky fits this description.
My former seat, Kentucky’s 3rd District—now held by Morgan McGarvey—is shaped quite logically. It covers nearly all but about 20,000 residents from the Louisville metro area, excluding those outside the city. The legislators clearly represent the Louisville community, including institutions like the University of Louisville, making collaboration between local officials very effective.
Currently, some Republicans in Frankfort are contemplating splitting the Louisville region into three separate congressional districts, potentially complicating the election of Democrats in the current climate. This strategy was briefly considered after the 2020 Census, but five Republicans alongside Senator Mitch McConnell dissuaded the General Assembly from pursuing it.
At that time, ideas suggested parts of Louisville might be included in a district extending down to the Tennessee state line. Many Republican federal representatives were satisfied with their “safe” districts and were wary of concentrating Louisville’s Democratic voters in their areas.
I suspect Mr. McConnell has never publicly addressed this notion, but he likely recognizes the political hazards of harming his hometown and the University of Louisville, to which he has always shown loyalty.
Curiously, some Republicans within the Kentucky General Assembly feel they haven’t done enough to disenfranchise Kentuckians, particularly in Louisville, and this idea seems to be making a comeback.
Tennessee offers a stark reminder of the consequences of such actions. Lawmakers there divided Nashville into three districts during the last redistricting phase, leading to a situation where the state capital has three U.S. House Representatives—a case showing that more isn’t necessarily better.
To break it down: each congressional district across the U.S. is about 750,000 people. If Nashville is divided into three, that would mean one district includes only 250,000 from Nashville alongside 500,000 from elsewhere, who typically have different interests. How does a representative prioritize? Naturally, they’d focus on the larger electorate.
Nashville’s current mayor is a Democrat, trying to cooperate with three Republican federal senators. A political scientist I spoke with from Vanderbilt University highlighted the complications arising from this structure. Vanderbilt, for instance, had to shift its government relations approach to engage various federal offices rather than treating Washington as a single entity. This redistricting has generally not benefited Nashville or Tennessee, except for certain Republican candidates.
Missouri is also attempting to do something similar with Kansas City. Fragmenting major cities and economic hubs for political gain would disenfranchise significant demographic segments, including the majority-black community.
I genuinely hope this notion is squashed. It’s hard to imagine the University of Louisville competing for attention with Western Kentucky University or Morehead if they were represented by three different Congress members. Having multiple representatives for Louisville could dilute interest in the city’s key facilities, such as its airport. There are many scenarios where this fragmentation would backfire.
Historically, Louisville has never had a black representative in Congress, yet black voters significantly influence local council representation. Splitting districts would likely weaken that influence, and such plans could face legal challenges over racial discrimination.
Most Americans are against gerrymandering, recognizing it mainly serves partisan gains. Like many, I believe voters should be the ones selecting their politicians—rather than the reverse. I’m not overly optimistic about the current Kentucky Republicans prioritizing public interests, but maybe there’s still some hope.
