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The Next Early Nominating State Is Just Around The Corner — And It’s Not South Carolina

  • Nevada is holding two nomination races: a state-sponsored primary on February 6th and a party-sponsored caucus on February 8th.
  • Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is expected to appear on the primary ballot, but former President Donald Trump is the only major candidate vying for delegates in the caucuses.
  • Jeremy Hughes, a Nevada-based Republican strategist, told the Daily Caller News Foundation: “I know some people were upset that CNN called Iowa before the national vote. “But they could have called the state of Nevada months ago.”

All eyes are on South Carolina following Tuesday's Republican primary in New Hampshire, but Nevada is the state where the nomination contest will be held two weeks before that.

Nevada's state primary will be held on February 6th, followed by party-sponsored caucuses two days later, but only the nomination contest will be counted toward the Republican National Committee's July delegate win. Only one of them tournament. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will be on the primary ballot, while former President Donald Trump is the only major Republican candidate vying for delegates in the Nevada Republican Party-run caucus.

Jeremy Hughes, a Nevada-based Republican strategist, told the Daily Caller News Foundation: “I know some people were upset that CNN called Iowa before the national vote. “But they could have called the state of Nevada months ago.” (Related: One state holds two votes for Republican candidates – so which one matters?)

The Nevada Republican Party held caucuses every presidential cycle for decades until former Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak took office. signed The 2021 law requires a primary system for such elections. The state Republican Party objected to the new law and decided to hold a caucus anyway and award 26 delegates proportionally based on the results.

Republican presidential candidates could only enter the nomination contest once at the direction of their state party.

The former president is participating in a caucus run by a state party made up primarily of Trump supporters, which is expected in other cycles in a state where many candidates were third on the nomination calendar. There was no such fierce competition.

The latest poll from Nevada's Republican caucus shows that carried out According to a paper published by Emerson College on January 9, President Trump's approval rating was 73%.

Tami Rae Spero, County Clerk of Republican-majority Humboldt County, told DCNF that “we still have a lot of hope in those early days because there was some confusion in the caucuses as opposed to the primaries.” It hasn't been effective,” he said. “With so many candidates withdrawing, whether it’s on the caucus side or the caucus side, [the primary], it actually comes down to a few different candidates. And since there is a restriction that those who participate in party caucuses cannot participate in presidential elections, there will probably be some rules about who wins in each race. ”

In addition to Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, conservative businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum all planned to do so. participate At a caucus meeting.Former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott have chosen to run in the primary. ballot paper With Haley.

Amy Tarkanian, former chair of the state Republican Party, said Nevada's Republican leadership would maintain the caucus process, bar candidates from participating in both contests, and collect $50,000 in entry fees. criticized what he was doing. The former chair believes the state party is focusing on Trump while intentionally making it difficult for other candidates to participate in the caucus.

Tarkanian told DCNF: “You would never guess there's an election going on right now.” “This is again very sad because we are missing out. We are missing out on a lot of great opportunities to be able to listen to candidates. The lights are on. It's one thing to see them on TV when you're in the middle of nowhere. But when you get up close and personal with them, you see a different side. So Nevada voters are truly disenfranchised. I think it has been done.”

Nevada Republican National Committeeman Jim DeGraffenreid said that Nevada will not be elected this term because various candidates dropped out in the dual nomination race and “it looked like the candidate was the nominee from the beginning.” I don't think it's getting that much attention. It was decided to some extent. ”

He dismissed the idea that the caucus was structured to favor Trump, noting that the DCNF has been hosting nomination contests for decades.

“It's pretty disingenuous to say that somehow the caucus is set up for candidates,” Degraffenried said. “Remember, caucuses are held in more than 1,000 separate precinct meetings across the state. Each of these precinct meetings is run by the grassroots Republicans in that district; It is virtually impossible to achieve any meaningful success in caucus bid-rigging, so to speak.

“The success of caucuses depends on the willingness to hold a ground campaign and work with the grassroots to mobilize people to caucus. “So candidates who wanted the opportunity to play that ground game and gain grassroots support in the caucuses were given the opportunity,” DeGraffenried said. Added.

Nevada voters cannot choose “none of these candidates” on their primary ballot. If that option gains more support than Haley or carries a significant portion of the vote, it could be a blow to the former ambassador, who faces a primary in her home state in two weeks, Hughes said. insisted.

“I think the biggest question is, will Nikki Haley win the primary, or will none of these candidates win?” … I’m kind of wondering if it’s a favorite at this point,” Hughes said. “Donald Trump has some very loyal supporters in Nevada, so I know there were multiple people who said they were going to vote 'none of the above' to send a message. .”

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo endorsed former President Trump on January 18, vowing not to vote for “any of these candidates” in the primaries and caucuses two days later. according to In the Nevada Independent.

There is precedent in Nevada for the winner of a primary to be “none of these candidates.” In 2014, top vote getter In the Democratic primary for governor, “None of these candidates” received nearly 30% support, while Bob Goodman received approximately 25% support.

Trump won the Iowa caucuses on January 15th with 51% support, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 21.2% and Haley with 19.9%. A few days later, after DeSantis withdrew from the race, Trump defeated Haley in the New Hampshire primary, 54.3% to 43.3%.

Mr. Trump has already been on Truth Social since his victory in New Hampshire, and he has already boasted that he won Nevada. The former president holding “Caucus” on Saturday in Las Vegas on the same day early voting Because the primary begins.

Trump campaign national press secretary Caroline Leavitt echoed the former president's sentiments in a statement to DCNF.

“President Trump has already won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and will defeat Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina. Nikki Haley's campaign is backed by Democratic donors. It's funded by, run by Democratic Party staff, and openly targets Democratic voters.” Levitt. “Ms. Haley has never, and will never, have a path to Republican nomination. It is past time for her to step down.”

New Hampshire allows undeclared registered voters to participate in the Republican primary, where Ms. Haley received most support. according to CNN exit poll. The former ambassador secured a majority of support among Democrats and people who identify as “moderates/liberals,” but only 25% of Republicans and 27% of conservatives.

South Carolina's primary is even friendlier to Democrats participating in the Republican primary because the state does not register voters by party. according to to the state election commission. Individuals may vote in either primary election as long as they are a registered voter in the Palmetto State.

Trump currently has a 30-point lead over Haley in the state. according to compared to the RealClearPolitics average.

Haley has been elected governor twice and is hoping for strong turnout in her home state. “This race isn't over yet,” the former ambassador told a crowd of supporters after his loss in New Hampshire, adding, “My beloved South Carolina is next.”

Spero said it makes sense why Haley is looking at South Carolina rather than Nevada, nodding to Trump's likely win in the state.

“You have to focus on areas that you think will benefit you. You have to put money into them. Not everyone has an unlimited budget in those areas,” Spero said. Told. “I think the current situation in Nevada is causing us to focus elsewhere.”

Haley's campaign did not respond to DCNF's request for comment.

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