Last week, Governor Hobbs and the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) released a new analysis of groundwater in the Phoenix metropolitan area.The news spread all over the country headline I question the potential for future development in this area. But what does this new analysis really mean for Arizona? What does this new analysis tell us? Who is affected?

The Assured Water Supply (AWS) program is a tool within the state’s Actively Managed Areas (AMAs) that requires new parcels to prove 100 years of water supply in order for a home to be sold. ADWR uses groundwater models in each AMA, including for purposes of managing AWS programs.

This new analysis shows that groundwater in the Phoenix area is now fully allocated, limiting the ability of developers to use local groundwater to prove that new homes can be reliably watered for 100 years. I’m here.

The impact will be on new subdivision developments along the Valley suburbs, such as areas such as Buckeye and Queen Creek, which are not yet AWS designated or certified.New development within the water service area of ​​a Valley City (or private water utility) Already designated by AWS – Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Gilbert, Tempe, etc. – are unaffected.

There are ways for developers to work around these constraints. The AWS Program applies only to new subdivisions defined as six or more parcels. Lot splitting is an approach the developer sometimes uses to get around her AWS requirement, which leaves the homeowner with a bag to keep if the water runs out. These “wildcat subdivisions” include: Rio Verde I recently ran out of water, but I can still continue. The AWS Program also does not apply to ready-built homes. For example, in Pinal County, Homebuilders are pursuing a build-to-rent approach To avoid AWS restrictions.

What does this mean for growth?

The endless sprawl, also known as the “building houses for those who build houses” approach to growing the manufacturing economy, has never been sustainable. The water supply limit demonstrated by this new analysis makes that point, and as a result, growth patterns can change over time.

Features of the Kill Center Choices in the Face of New Developments “Going forward, developers will need to weigh the costs of developing on more expensive land within these service areas (where AWS already exists) versus developing local, non-groundwater supplies.” Growth in the Phoenix area is likely to shift inwards (and upwards) rather than outwards. The growth will not stop, but the appearance will change with the passage of time.

What is the purpose of the AWS Program?

The original purpose of the AWS program was to shift new growth from limited groundwater to renewable water supplies while providing consumer protection to homebuyers. To continue to meet this intent, the program will be strengthened, for example, by addressing loopholes in site divisions and construction-to-leasing. and by engaging in other recommended reforms, To ensure water stability in this area.

A new massive out-of-state water supply will save us, right?

No, importing water from out of state is decades away at best. Opportunities to boost supply within the state are more real, for example increasing storage in the Salt Verde system (which will take at least 10 years). Local wastewater recycling infrastructure (A few years later). Conservation, reuse, water exchange, and careful management of the water we own (groundwater) are ways to ensure water security now and in the future.

Why was it so important to publish this groundwater analysis?

Ensuring transparency, providing public access to honest information about water supplies and hiding inconvenient facts is critical to creating meaningful solutions. This disclosure was an important signal that it was time to get honest about water issues and get serious about solutions.

How does the Colorado River affect this?

Due to overuse and drying, the Colorado River The brink of tanking. Water users of the Colorado River will need to significantly reduce their overall water use to prevent the river from rupturing in the next few years. As the river shrinks, Arizona’s reliance on groundwater, which already accounts for more than 40% of the state’s water supply, will grow even more.

This new analysis assumes Colorado River deliveries under current contracts. Due to new agreements expected by 2026, the supply of Colorado River water to central Arizona is likely to decrease year-on-year, resulting in currently projected aquifer recharge. may be less than what is Phoenix’s AMA model will need to be adjusted in a timely manner to reflect the new agreement, which could result in even tighter water supply constraints.

What about the rest of the population outside the Phoenix area?

Over 80% of the state has an increasing rural population of about 1.5 million people living in areas without groundwater management, although groundwater is often the only source of water supply. As a result, local wells are running dry or threatened, local farms are in decline, and rivers are drying up.

The final takeaway from ADWR’s presentation last week on the new Phoenix groundwater analysis was:people are not short of waterBut in rural Arizona, Water is scarce in some communities.

For example, more than 100 Wilcox residents recently sent a letter to Governor Hobbes calling for administrative action on groundwater management in the basin, citing the state legislature’s lack of alternative options. they said:Many of us had to spend a lot of money to deepen our home wells…Some of us can no longer afford to drill new deep wells and now water our homes. Some people are having it delivered…I know a neighbor who moved elsewhere due to the lack of water tables”

Water issues in the Phoenix area deserve attention, but many rural communities are facing imminent water crises. Over the years the number continued to grow, Rural Communities Came to Parliament Further options for protecting the local groundwater supply were explored, but were simply ignored. Whether you live in Phoenix, Kingman, Gilbert or Wilcox, every Arizonan has a right to a water safe future. .

what’s next?

Governor Hobbes ordered the new water policy council to make recommendations Submit legislation by December for both rural groundwater management and the AWS program.

Over the years, a small number of special interest groups have worked to halt the progress of these water problems, cut off public dialogue to maintain the status quo. However, as broader stakeholders, more community leadersand when new legislators join, new possibilities open up.

This will require strong leadership from governors, legislative leaders, and state officials, along with fresh recruits willing to challenge the status quo of helplessness to ultimately deliver solutions. It takes courage. Arizona people are paying close attention and expect results – Water is now the #1 issue among Arizona voters.

There is no more important work in Arizona for the next few months. It’s time to roll up your sleeves.