With the start of a new year and the first campaign finance reports due, it's time to get serious about competing for Alabama's newly elected Congressional seats.
Over the past few months, the Democratic nomination race has officially shrunk somewhat. Even on the ALGOP side, although it is not official, there is a decreasing trend.
AEA Assistant Executive Director for Field Services Darryl Sinquefield and Montgomery surgeon Brian Gray have each officially withdrawn from the race, according to the Alabama Democratic Party. This leaves about a dozen more Democratic candidates in the race, but in reality it still leaves the same five or six candidates with a realistic chance.
The same goes for Republican candidates. Technically there are eight candidates in the ALGOP primary, but the realistic number is probably four.
On the Democratic side, the focus is on Reps. Anthony Daniels, Napoleon Bracey, Juandalyn Givan, Jeremy Gray and state Sen. Merika Coleman. Shomali Figures, the son of longtime state senator Vivian Figures, is a possibility, but he will need to quickly build a name ID and donor base and will need to take multiple breaks. There will be.
On the Republican side, current state Sen. Greg Albritton and former state Sen. Dick Brubaker, Montgomery attorney Caroleen Dobson and former University of Alabama football star Wallace Gilberry are probably the only viable candidates.
For now, Albritton is the Republican front-runner. He is quite popular in the district, qualifies as a staunch Republican, though not insane, and has the best financial backing in the Poarch Band of Creek Indians supporting him. (Hence the recent arguments against putting a statewide gambling amendment on the November ballot, as it would drive Democratic voters to the polls and hurt Republicans in the race.) It's getting more and more ridiculous. The party's front-runner is literally the biggest proponent of legalized gambling in the state.)
It will be interesting to see what Brewbaker can do in the race and what kind of support he can get from the wealthy crowd. If he can get into the business world and gain support in Montgomery, things will get tougher from a voting standpoint, especially for Dobson, and for Albritton. It will be difficult to beat the dominant candidate in the Montgomery area.
On the Democratic side, there is no doubt that Mr. Daniels is the leading candidate. I know that Mr. Bracey came out on top in a recent poll conducted by the Southern Poverty Law Center's Action Fund, but I don't agree with that. I'm not saying the polls were intentionally flawed or accidentally flawed. SPLC's Action Fund is not involved in such matters.
But looking at some of the details of the poll, engagement was much lower in areas where Bracey was less well-known, and higher in areas where he might be better. Additionally, this poll happened to coincide with Bracey's first major text/ad push in his campaign.
That alone makes a difference. So is the fact that 47% of respondents were undecided, unable to pick a favorite.
There's one reason I think Daniels is leading the way. That's because we believe the winner of each primary will be the winning candidate in Montgomery and its surrounding areas.
The area is too populated and the voters too trusting. I don't think we can win this race without the majority of support from Montgomery.
A week before the SPLC vote, Daniels held a fundraiser at Wynn Lakes Country Club in Montgomery. The event was hosted by some of Montgomery's biggest and most influential politicians, including influential lawyers, judges, businessmen, and civil rights activists.
In the coming weeks, Daniels' financial support will begin to appear in the form of ads flooding the district, raising his profile. I don't think there is another candidate who can match him in this regard.
That said, it is clear that Mr. Bracey has also established name ID in key areas of the district. And he has support from several major organizations. With a rest or two, he'll be a major player.
Also, women of color should not be sold short. Coleman and Jivan have each proven that they know how to campaign and how to create organic media opportunities that improve ID without spending campaign costs. Are they already having a public debate? fight? …on the issue of police body cameras.
Coleman in particular is way ahead of the pack when it comes to engagement. She seems to have identified some key areas where she can drive the story and the law forward, and she's done a great job so far in bringing these issues in front of the camera. And my email inbox attests to her hard work in campaign fundraising.
That will be your first real measuring stick. If these reports decrease within a few days, the pool of candidates will rapidly decline as some Dreamer candidates realize what they are up against and choose to focus on their core business. It is expected that. These reports also show who major donors are seriously supporting and whose campaigns are running fastest and smoothest.
