Jamie Dettmar is Opinion Editor for POLITICO Europe.

Ukraine is on the brink of a battle that could turn out to be one of two key battles in a war wrought by Russia.

The first is Ukraine’s successful defense of Kiev over a year ago. Russia had a plan, but the execution did not go well. Ukraine had few plans, and did so with heavy backing from Western-supplied Javelins and NLAW anti-tank missiles. In the end, the Russian forces, too cocky and poorly commanded, were defeated by the agility, bravery and improvisational skill of the Ukrainian forces.

We are now likely embarking on the early stages of the second crucial battle, as the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine looks imminent, if not yet commenced. But Kiev officials are still concerned about whether they have enough to strike hard and deep.

Ihor Zhovkva, Deputy Director of the Office of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke over the weekend. told the Sunday Times“If you want a successful counterattack, you need artillery, armored vehicles, tanks, everything at your disposal. Probably not enough.”

Nevertheless, Zelensky himself said: On Friday, he said he was ready to launch a counteroffensive, but also tried to temper expectations, saying that the battlefield struggle ahead would take time and come at a high price. And in the eyes of some, it looked like the early moves had begun as this article was being written.

The Ukrainian leader must have felt like former US President Dwight Eisenhower on the eve of D-Day. “The world’s eyes are on you,” Eisenhower wrote in his paper. Famous letter sent to troops before the raid. “We accept nothing but outright victory! Good luck!” But he also drafted another draft in case of failure, preemptively writing: Any faults or faults in this endeavor are solely my responsibility. ” The letter never had to be sent.

Today, 79 years after Eisenhower drafted the D-Day message, on the eve of battle, Ukraine and Russia still carry out drone and missile strikes on both military and civilian targets to confuse and deceive each other. are doing their best to

Russia’s relentless air raids on Kiev over the past four weeks, including 400 Iranian Shahed drones and 114 cruise missiles, were aimed at psychologically driving Ukrainians. Russia has moved away from targeting its domestic energy grid, focusing on Ukrainian command and decision-making centers, logistics hubs and, on Sunday, Russian missiles. hit Air force base in central Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Khavrilov: “Their main objective is to stop our counterattack” Said Security conference held in Singapore.

Similarly, Ukraine deploys not only drones and artillery fire, but an increasingly daring grouping of apparently covert operatives and Russian rebels both behind enemy lines in occupied Ukraine and inside Russia. They do everything in their power to cause chaos and confuse their enemies through sabotage. in the Russian Freedom Corps and the Russian Volunteers.

these are Invasion of the Belgorod region The situation on the border with Ukraine shows how fragile Russia’s borders are. But in addition to the cross-border shelling that has hit Shevekino and Vorokonovsky with hundreds of shells in recent days, they also have a dual role. It is to bring the war back to the Russians, just like the last war. Drone attack on Moscow On the other hand, it could also move some of its frontline troops to placate Russia to thwart a long-awaited counterattack.

Fighting in Belgorod has also exacerbated political infighting in Russia, where the brutal leader of the Wagner militia, Evgeny Prigozhin, announced on Saturday that he was ready to send mercenaries to defend the border areas. “If the Ministry of Defense does not stop what is happening in the Belgorod region, […] If Russian territory is really occupied, obviously we will arrive,” he said. Said by voice message. Prigogine added that he would not wait for official permission, adding: “All we want is ammunition so that we can, as we say, go home bare ass in the cold.” don’t,” he said.

Kiev denies any involvement, but these incursions ridicule Russia’s denial “little green men” who spearheaded annexations and land grabs and rolled out to Crimea and Donbass in 2014. Thing. But in the end, like the drone strikes, missile strikes and artillery strikes carried out by both countries, they are just a sideshow – though misdirecting Russia and where the main force of the counterattack will come from. Although it is an important attack if it can be misled.

And that’s the question Ukraine is doing its best to avoid an answer before the gunshots erupt.

On Sunday, the Ukrainian military redoubled its appeal for operational silence over the counterattack, urging the public not to speculate about the counterattack or share images that could reveal the match. “The plan prefers silence,” the Defense Ministry said in a video posted to its social media channels, showing a masked soldier holding his finger to his lips. But government officials themselves have sparked speculation in recent efforts to provoke Russia, posting videos just last week that showed troops preparing for battle, chanting blessings and promises.

Still, it’s little secret that Russians can read maps, so there’s a wide range of options.

Undoubtedly, if Ukraine were to launch a major offensive in the northeastern province of Kharkov, where Russia’s defenses collapsed last autumn, it would face an unexpected attack that even Ukrainian ground commanders were not informed until the day before. If not, the biggest possible surprise would occur. of the raid. The aim of such an attack here would be to penetrate deep into Luhansk, drive Russia out of Severodonetsk and threaten Bakhmut.

An invasion of Donetsk is also an option for Ukraine, but the most rewarding attack would be to go through Zaporizhia and Kherson to Mariupol, Verdyansk, Melitopol and Tokmak, cutting the so-called land bridges connecting mainland Russia. That’s right. And the southern Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia via the Crimean Isthmus.

And it’s here that most experienced military observers expect the attack to be concentrated — and so are Russian map readers. According to open-source satellite imagery and Ukrainian field commanders who spoke with POLITICO, in recent weeks Russian forces have reinforced the Zaporizhia region, building a series of defensive perimeters, and have also stepped up defenses in northern Crimea for months. are doing.

But this could pose problems for Ukraine, as noted in a recent report by the United Kingdom’s Royal United Services Institute. “The engineering department has proven to be one of the most powerful branches of the Russian Armed Forces.” The report said. “The defensive installations currently being built, consisting of complex obstacles and field fortifications, will pose significant tactical challenges for Ukrainian offensive operations.”

Therefore, Ukraine now rests part of its hopes on signs of a shortage of Russian artillery ammunition. He also believes he can take advantage of Russia’s low morale and poor command coordination.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is also questioning itself. Can we pull off a truly coordinated combined arms war, avoiding the overly sequential and slow pace that has sometimes been the case in the past? Will you be able to push forward without hesitation in the face of fierce resistance? And, above all, has the Ukrainian army been sufficiently trained with the new tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment recently acquired from the West?

Eisenhower said in a message hours before D-Day: Free men all over the world march in unity for victory! ” And now this is D-Day in Ukraine.