Between the millions of words we spend reading, interpreting, commentary and predicting polls, we can best predict our analysis of the 2024 presidential election through the lens of history, just as we did in 2016. History is often our best guide, and it would have helped us through the current hysteria of 2016 to remind us of:successorElections (that is, elections where the incumbent party must be re-elected, but with new candidates, successors) are the hardest elections to win in presidential politics. Just ask Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Al Gore, Hubert Humphrey, Richard Nixon in 1960.Since the days of Franklin Roosevelt, only Harry Truman (who has since been president for more than three years, or more precisely, the incumbent) and George H.W. bush They were elected in their party’s “successor” election. History also teaches that incumbent presidents usually win re-election. Doesn’t that bode well for Joe Biden? not so soon With the 2020 rematch just around the corner, unless something dramatic changes in the next six months, there will be some historical lessons to better inform 2024. (Related: Gavin Wax: Republican voters won’t be satisfied with Donald Trump’s pale imitation)
rerun
Three times in post-Civil War American history, 5 times in total, the two leading candidates are up for a rematch or re-election.of 1900incumbent President William McKinley dispatched Democratic challenger William Jennings Bylan in a similar manner. 1896,and 1956President Dwight Eisenhower and Democratic challenger Adlai Stevenson have rerun nearly identical elections. 1952. After a controversial 1824 result, Andrew Jackson easily defeated incumbent President John Quincy Adams in 1828. 1892 Grover Cleveland defeats incumbent President Benjamin Harrison after very close Result of 1888, part of a series of close elections held in the last quarter of the 19th century. Ask yourself if Biden looks like McKinley. McKinley found a way to join the Republican coalition, which had barely won elections in the previous years. Is he a national hero like Eisenhower? Or does he resemble the fragile coalition of one-term presidents Quincy Adams and Harrison?
Return
If Donald Trump succeeds in regaining the presidency in 2024, Grover Cleveland, Who were 22nd and 24th president. In Cleveland’s return to office, he was also aided by a large third-party vote from Populist Party candidate James Weaver. This important third-party vote tends to complicate re-election issues for parties affiliated with the White House, regardless of where their ideological leanings lie. This is one of the reasons why third-party objections are one of Professor Alan Lichtman’s issues, along with primary objections. 13 keys to the white house On the flip side, you’ll be playing against the incumbent party in the White House. Like 2016, and unlike 2020, significant challenges are expected from the first and third parties, and while President Trump’s third coalition is strong, they will be up against the incumbents. In fact, Trump’s third run is expected to follow Grover Cleveland and Richard Nixon’s third run. They were the strongest manifestation of their coalition through the electoral college system and, in Nixon’s case, the popular vote. (Related: Alan Dershowitz: Does President Trump Know Anything About Audio Recordings He’s Not Sharing?)
The third is the strongest coalition
Despite being narrowly beaten by more than 40,000 voters in three states, Trump increased his total voter turnout by 11 million to 74 million, a record for a sitting president. He increased his percentage total from his 45.93% to his 46.80%. Biden’s margin of victory was more or less dictated by third-party voters from 2016 breaking his way.As discussed, whether to vote for the Green Party candidate if a third party votes Cornell West or a potential no-label candidate ( If it was a Biden-Trump rematch, they would run a nominee), breaking through 5 percent and Biden would have to make new history to be re-elected. Before addressing voter sentiment about the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, foreign policy, and the country’s overall direction, and the fact that Donald Trump has never done a better poll against Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton, Trump said: 0.6 up real clear politics Vote average as of July 3, 2023 – Looking back at history and the significant test that Trump is the only politician in America able to draw large crowds and rally coalitions that have won by a wide margin in every second, and perhaps soon, third election, Trump’s third election could be the most powerful yet. President Trump will follow Democrats Andrew Jackson and Grover Cleveland and Republican Richard Nixon in taking control of the White House for a historic third time in what will prove to be the most powerful version of the Trump populist-conservative coalition reshaping American politics.
Troy Olson is a veteran, trained attorney, and co-author of the upcoming book The Emerging Populist Majority. He lives in New York City with his wife and son.
Gavin M. Wax is a New York-based conservative political activist, commentator, columnist, operative, and strategist. He is the Executive Director of the National Constitutional Law Union. He also served as the 76th president of the Young Republican Club of New York and is an ambassador for both Turning Point He is USA and Live Action. He is co-author of an upcoming book titled ‘The Emerging Populist Majority’. Follow @GavinWax on Twitter.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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