WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump began his return to the White House this week with a flurry of personnel announcements that sent powerful messages to key voter groups, potential political opponents and the nation as a whole.

Two options immediately sparked controversy — former Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida appointed as attorney general and Hawaii’s Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence — sets an early test for Senate Republicans: Will they rubber-stamp President Trump’s orders or serve as a check on his impulses?

Either way, Trump could win.

Meanwhile, another pair of appointments, the original Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee appointed ambassador to Israel As special envoy for the Middle East, Stephen Witkoff, a real estate investor and Trump fundraiser, has signaled the president-elect’s desire to forge an alliance between evangelical Christians in the United States and right-wing Israeli leaders.

The move is bad news for American Muslims and others who voted for Trump out of anger over the Biden administration’s support for Israel.

It could also deepen the political isolation of the already segregated majority of American Jews. Last year I became extremely anxious. About the war in the Middle East.

Middle East and American politics

Republicans made great efforts to persuade Jewish voters Advertisement about rising anti-Semitism And there are accusations that the Biden administration has not done enough to support Israel.

Despite this, about 7 in 10 American Jews voted for Vice President Kamala Harris this year, a post-election poll found. Jewish constituency research institute. The margins are similar to the following findings. Network exit polling and Another Associated Press voter surveywhich indicates a slight decline in Jewish support for Democrats, but not the big change some Republicans expected.

Opinion polls show that Orthodox Jews, like religious traditionalists of other faiths, voted in large numbers for Trump, but among more religiously liberal Jews and unaffiliated Jews, Harris voted in large numbers. won the majority.

Despite the attention, the Jewish electorate is too small (about 2% of the U.S. electorate) to sway presidential elections. That’s the main reason Israeli leaders have spent years carefully cultivating relationships with the much larger American voting bloc: evangelical Christians.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has placed particular emphasis on building ties between Israel and evangelicals.

Now, with Mr. Huckabee’s appointment, that alliance will also include the authority of the U.S. government.

Ironically, this could be a bitter pill for both Arab Americans and many Jewish Americans.

It’s difficult to know how many Arab American voters voted for Trump. That group remains too small to be accurately measured in exit polls. However, Democrats suffered notable losses in some communities with large Arab populations, such as Dearborn, Michigan.

In Dearborn, where more than half the population is Arab, Biden defeated Trump by nearly 3-1 in 2020. This year, Trump won with 43% of the votes, compared to 36% for Harris. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 18% of the vote in Dearborn, but less than 1% statewide.

Arab opposition to Harris wasn’t enough to explain Trump’s victory in Michigan, but it certainly made a big difference in the vote.

Some voters had hopes that President Trump would be more sympathetic to their position than President Biden. The selection of Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Witkoff, as well as Representative Elise Stefanik as U.N. ambassador and Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state, suggested they would be deeply disappointed.

During the 2008 presidential campaign, Huckabee said this in a conversation with voters: There is no such thing as a Palestinian”If the region’s Arab population wants a state of its own, it should carve it out of areas controlled by Egypt, Jordan and Syria, not from the areas ruled by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. he suggested.

Annexing the occupied territories and eliminating the possibility of an independent Palestinian state is a top goal of the Israeli right. Huckabee supported that.

Mr. Witkoff has raised millions of dollars for Mr. Trump from donors who believe Mr. Biden is unfairly restraining Israeli military action.

The growing ties between the Republican Party and the Israeli right-wing could also be problematic for American Jews. The majority are unfavorable to both Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu and support the idea of ​​Jews and Arabs dividing the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River and each having their own state.

They now face the prospect that their views may be ignored by both the Israeli and American governments.

Mark Melman, a longtime Democratic strategist who heads the Israel Democratic Majority Group and whose firm conducted the Jewish Electoral Research Institute study, found that liberal Jews and conservative evangelicals are argues that alliances can be formed despite differences.

“There is a political and ideological conflict between the majority of evangelicals and the majority of American Jews,” he said. “But we can work together.”

Melman said the past year has shown how important strong support from American Jews is to Israel, adding that he thinks Netanyahu understands that.

“Abandoning the American Jewish community would be a terrible mistake for the Israeli government.”

Early test for Senate Republicans

The nominations of Gaetz and Gabbard signaled President Trump’s willingness to challenge the remnants of the Republican establishment and his desire to retaliate against Justice Department prosecutors.

“This weaponized government against the people must be fully pursued in court,” Gaetz wrote in a social media post shortly after Trump’s announcement. “If that means eliminating all three letter agencies from the FBI to the ATF, I’m going to start doing it right away!”

Several senators immediately expressed displeasure with Gaetz’s nomination. Some people have complained about Gabbard. Former Democrat who publicly defended Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

That could lead to a controversial nomination battle that Trump could lose.

The calculation is easy. Nominations require a majority vote in the Senate. Trump will need support from 50 senators to break the tie if J.D. Vance becomes vice president.

Currently, the Republican Party is considering fielding 53 members in its caucus. Pennsylvania’s extremely close Senate race is headed for a recount. Out of more than 3.7 million votes cast, Republican Dave McCormick led incumbent Democrat Bob Casey by just over 25,000 votes.

If the Republican’s provisional victory in Pennsylvania holds, Mr. Trump could lose the confirmation votes of three senators, but a fourth, assuming Democrats do not lose their positions. If he leaves the party, his nomination will be lost. If Casey wins, Trump will only lose two senators.

Confirmation battle over ethics

Confirmation battles in the Senate usually end up leading to something other than their intended purpose.

In Gaetz’s case, the real stakes are whether the president should have personal control over federal law enforcement, including the ability to shut down investigations by allies and go after his enemies, or whether the Justice Department should take its arm out of politics. I wonder if I should keep the distance I’ve extended.

Under the Biden administration, federal prosecutors filed a lawsuit against Trump and won convictions for several of his allies. Stephen used to be a political advisor. K. Bannon and his Former Trade Representative Peter Navarro.

However, the current Ministry of Justice also Two convictions of the president’s son Hunter Biden wins Corruption case against then-Senator. Robert Menendezhe is the powerful Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams indicted.

but, A majority of Republican voters distrust the Justice Department and general federal law enforcement. That may be why Republican senators may not want to claim the department’s records under Atty. General Merrick Garland advocated equality and that President Trump should strive for the same.

Instead, if history is any guide, Republican senators will look for signs of scandal that could provide cover for voting against Gates without unduly provoking conservative voters.

You may not need to look far. Gaetz is being investigated by the House Ethics Committee on charges that he “engaged in sexual misconduct and illegal drug use” and “attempted to obstruct a government investigation into his conduct,” according to an official statement from the committee. I am receiving it.

Gates is he denied doing anything wrongNot only the Ethics Commission but also prosecutors from the Department of Justice argued as follows. He was previously investigated whether he had sexual relations with underage girls. — inappropriately peeking into his private life.

The commission postponed publication of its report before the election and was scheduled to release it on Friday. People with knowledge of the content said it was highly critical of Gates.

Gaetz avoided release by preemptively resigning from Congress on Wednesday, hours after Trump announced his nomination for attorney general. Under House rules, this concludes the Ethics Committee investigation.

It is unclear at this point whether the committee’s report will be officially released. Senators have begun demanding to see it. In any case, the findings are almost certain to be brought up in Gaetz’s confirmation hearing.

For Trump, wins with these nominees would strengthen his advantage in the Senate. If he loses, he will be able to play one of his favorite roles: the victim of unfair treatment by a political opponent.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy He lost his speaking spot mainly because of Gates.suggested Thursday that the latter scenario may be what President Trump is hoping for.

“Gaetz will not be approved — Everybody knows that,” the Bakersfield Republican said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “It doesn’t matter,” he added. “That’s a nice deflection.”

In terms of numbers

How will the vote go?: Overall, turnout in this election was slightly down from 2020, which had the highest turnout in U.S. history, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of the adult population. Once all votes have been counted, California still has 1 million people left to count.According to estimates, approximately 156 million people will vote this year. Predictions by voting analyst Nate Silver. it is Down from just over 158 million Harris will end up just shy of 76 million votes, about 5 million fewer than the House. Biden earned $81 million in 2020. Numerous posts on social media have suggested the gap could be even wider, citing incomplete voting counts. Mr. Trump will earn about $78 million, an increase of about $4 million from his 2020 total. Third-party candidates overall are expected to get just under 2% of the vote, about the same as four years ago. Mr. Silver estimates that Mr. Trump’s lead in the popular vote will ultimately be about 1.6 percentage points. Some other estimates had slightly smaller margins. Either way, 2024 is shaping up to be the fourth closest election in the last 100 years.

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