Several ambulances and police vehicles responded to a shooting at Crosspointe Community Church in Wayne, Michigan, in June. Interestingly, a recent Criminal Justice Crime Trends Report indicates that murders dropped by 17% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Political conversations have highlighted crime and violence, yet this new analysis shows a consistent decline in violent crime this year.

Data reveals that serious crimes such as murder, gun assaults, and carjackings decreased in 42 cities during the first half of 2025. This decline extends the trend that began in 2022. The report, released by the Nonpartisan Think Tank Council on Criminal Justice, indicates that murders fell 17% among 30 cities compared to the previous year.

However, there were exceptions: five cities experienced an uptick in murders, varying from 6% in Milwaukee to a significant 39% in Little Rock, Arkansas.

The report’s authors express cautious optimism about the drop in violence, especially in cities with historically high crime rates, like Baltimore and St. Louis. Yet, more than half of the surveyed cities still report higher homicide rates than before the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall, the report notes a 14% decrease in murders in the first half of 2025 compared to the same timeframe in 2019.

More investigation is necessary before attributing the decline to specific policies, as the reduction in violent crime remains ongoing.

Amidst this, ex-President Donald Trump has been vocal about crime concerns, often citing questionable statistics, which can skew perceptions of the situation. Just recently, he took to social media to argue that cashless bail—a system that allows defendants to be released without paying bail—contributes to rising crime rates and endangers police.

In his post, he stated, “Crime in American cities began to rise significantly when we went on cashless bail. The worst criminals flood our streets and put even our great law enforcement officers in danger. It’s a complete disaster and needs to be over soon!”

However, some studies suggest that cash bail isn’t necessarily effective in ensuring people show up for court or in improving public safety. While it’s true that released suspects might commit new crimes, data indicates that getting rid of cash bail doesn’t lead to a widespread increase in criminal activity.

This recent post from Trump marks a notable shift from his comments during a police roundtable in June, where he claimed the national murder rate has plummeted by “28%.” This assertion glosses over the fact that declines began before he took office.

According to consulting firm AH Datalytics, the Real-time Crime Index, which compiles data from over 400 law enforcement agencies, showed murders were down 20.3% from January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

The Major Cities Chiefs Association reported similar findings, revealing a roughly 20% drop in murders in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same timeframe last year. This data is based on surveys from 68 major police departments nationwide.

Researchers from the Criminal Justice Council mentioned that pinpointing a single cause for the decline in homicides is challenging. Meanwhile, most major crimes have decreased in early 2025 compared to last year, with car thefts down by 25% and gun assaults down by 21%. Other crimes such as robbery and sexual assaults also saw significant declines.

While drug crimes remained stable, reports of domestic violence did rise slightly—around 3%. Additionally, carjackings dropped by 24%, and thefts fell by 5%.

When looking at the first half of 2019, before the pandemic, overall murders decreased by 14%, with robbery and sexual assaults falling by 30% and 28%, respectively.

Still, over 60% of cities included in the report have homicide rates above those of 2019. Car theft has notably declined since 2023 but still remains the only crime tracking upward compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Furthermore, the Council’s analysis on the lethality of violent crimes indicates that, while incidents are decreasing, the proportion that results in death has significantly increased over the years. For instance, in 1994 there were two murders for every 1,000 assaults; by 2020, that figure had risen to 7.2.