As a growing number of Democrats call for Biden to step down ahead of the Democratic National Convention, the 81-year-old president responded with a clear message: “I'm not going anywhere.”
“I beat him once, and I'll beat him again,” Biden said of Trump at a news conference in Washington last week. And on MSNBC's “Morning Joe,” the president told skeptics: “Run against me. Go ahead. Run for president. Challenge me at the convention.”
Experts say Biden is all but certain to win the Democratic nomination if he wants to, but California's 496-member delegation, the largest in the country, would play a crucial role if Biden steps down at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August and a contested convention unfolds.
Dan Schnur, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, University of California, Berkeley and Pepperdine University, said California will have “disproportionate influence” in choosing Biden's successor because of the size of its delegation. Schnur also said that California's delegation comes from one of the most liberal states in the country, and the delegation “may be more to the left than many battleground state delegations.”
“There's a very large and progressive group of California Democrats that could have a big influence on the nominee selection,” Schnur said.
How do California representatives feel?
Two members of California's congressional delegation have publicly called on Biden to not seek reelection.
Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Diego), who is running for reelection in the 49th Congressional District, said Friday that “it's time to hand the baton to President Biden.” Levin said the party must prioritize “the immense threat that Donald Trump poses to American freedom and our democratic institutions.”
Rep. Scott Peters, a Democrat from San Diego, expressed concern Thursday about polls showing Biden's support declining in key battleground states.
“The stakes are high and we are headed for a loss,” Peters said in a statement. “My conscience tells me to speak out and prioritize my loyalty to our country and our democracy over my great love and loyalty to the President and those around him.”
Rep. Mark Takano (D-Riverside) was one of four people who said in a private conference call with other House Democratic leaders earlier this month that Biden should drop out of the race. Takano's office declined an interview request.
How the DNC works
To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must win more than half of the party's 3,939 delegates. Biden has already secured roughly 99% of the support in state primaries.
The DNC does not release a complete list of delegates, but some state parties, including Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Florida and Ohio, publish the names of their delegates on their websites.
The California Democratic Party Published It lists the names of the state's 277 elected delegates, but not the full delegate roster. Each of the state's 42 Democrats in the House of Representatives has one seat, and Gov. Gavin Newsom has one.
Christian Gross, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California, said California's delegates are powerful not just because of the larger delegate pool overall, but also because the DNC reduced the number of automatic delegates, who don't vote in the first round, meaning that the delegates each state chooses hold most of the power.
He said anyone trying to take delegates away from Biden “would actually have to move California's delegates.”
California has 55 “automatic delegates” (previously known as superdelegates) drawn from statewide elected officials, labor leaders and big-city mayors. All of the state's top Democrats are delegates, including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Attorney General Rob Bonta, Secretary of State Shirley Weber and California Superintendent of Education Tony Thurmond, according to a copy of the list provided to The Times by the state Democratic Party.
The panel included Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco Mayor London Breed and San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria, as well as California Labor Federation President Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher, civil rights activist Dolores Huerta and representatives of local and statewide unions representing firefighters, public works workers, teachers and construction workers.
The list also includes Yvette Martinez, executive director of the California Democratic Party, Mark Gonzales, a former Los Angeles County Democratic Party representative, and Mona Pasquill Rogers, who worked in the Newsom and former Gov. Jerry Brown administrations and is now Meta's California public policy director.
Will Democratic delegates have to vote for Biden?
Biden said last week that the delegates “You can do anything you want” he said, including nominating a different candidate at the next party convention. Then, in a whisper, he said, “That's not going to happen.”
“If Biden wants to be the nominee, barring another debate-like performance, that's what he's going to do,” Schnur said.
That echoes the views of members of California's convention delegation, many of whom said the chances of a convention fight or even a floor fight are very low. The vast majority of convention delegates, vetted and approved by the Biden campaign, are unlikely to change their nominee without Biden's permission.
“There's a world where that's not the case,” Gloria says, “but I don't think that's going to happen.”
Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Porter Ranch) said he was watching Biden's public comments closely but that his nomination was likely a “foregone conclusion,” and Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach), a Biden surrogate, said, “This party will be unified by the time the convention gets underway.”
Still, “there's no painless way to choose a nominee,” Sherman said. “The least painful way is to choose Biden, but after two weeks of remorse and uncertainty, it's still going to hurt.”
California law requires convention delegates to cast their first ballot based on who wins the primary. Sherman, who has not called on Biden to step down, said he believes the law is unconstitutional.
He cited a 2016 federal court case in which Virginia delegates to the Republican National Convention sued to overturn a law that required delegates to vote on the convention's first ballot to determine the winner of the primary. Violating the law was a misdemeanor. The delegates argued in court that they could vote their first ballot according to their conscience. A federal judge sided with the delegates and struck down the Virginia law.
Experts say a similar lawsuit would probably be needed to overturn California's law. Whether it becomes an issue at the Games is another matter.
National conventions are not bound by state laws and can set their own rules. This year's Democratic National Convention rules state that “delegates elected to the convention, who have pledged allegiance to the candidate for President, shall act in accordance with their conscience and reflect the sentiments of the people who elected them.”
Sherman said primary voters wanted the Biden they had “seen for three years and three months,” not the Biden who appeared in poor form in the June 27 debate. The question for delegates, she said, is how to translate those desires into the convention.
“Nobody voted for Joe on June 27th,” Sherman said. “And that's not even Joe Biden's preferred Joe.”