Many areas of Arizona are experiencing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, resulting in an unusually warm and dry start to the new year.

From Phoenix to Flagstaff, it’s been a mild winter with minimal precipitation so far.

Only patches of snow remain in the San Francisco Peaks, and the only snow in the forecast is thanks to snowmaking machines at ski resorts. Phoenix is ​​also experiencing its longest dry season on record, with 132 consecutive days without rain.

Cities across the state have broken multiple daily temperature records in recent weeks as above-average temperatures continue.

“We’ve had a weather pattern so far, especially in the fall and early winter, where we don’t have any systems available. We don’t have any systems in this area that are going to provide any relief,” said Alex Young, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Phoenix. spoke.

Here’s what you need to know about Arizona’s unusually dry and warm weather and whether winter weather is coming.

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Why is Arizona so warm and dry?

Some parts of Arizona are typically warmer and drier than much of the country, but this fall and current winter season has been unusual. Meteorologists attribute this trend to atmospheric conditions that interfere with winter weather.

Throughout the fall and winter so far, a high-pressure system has continued for a long time from the eastern Pacific Ocean to various parts of the United States.

“This was kind of a blocking pattern, so it kept the storm on track well north of Arizona,” said Megan Taylor, a warning coordinating meteorologist with NWS Flagstaff. “It keeps us dry and warm.”

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So far, the main cause of the warm winter is high pressure, but La Niña may also be playing a role. Meteorologists issued a La Niña warning as ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean tend to drop, creating warmer, drier conditions in the Southwest.

Temperatures may drop slightly in Arizona early next week as cold air from the Arctic hits the northern United States, but the state is expected to remain drier than average through mid-to-late January. are.

“It looks like this is going to continue unless the high pressure system breaks up and a good low pressure system moves through,” Young said.

No rain in Phoenix, cloudy skies

The holidays are over, but the warm, dry, and cloudy skies in Phoenix over the past few weeks are expected to continue into the new year.

August 22 was the last day of measurable precipitation at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, making the 132-day dry season the fifth longest on record.

The longest period without rain in Phoenix was 160 days in 1972. The next longest time was 147 days in 2023.

“I still have a long way to go because I have to get through the rest of this month to attempt that 160,” Young said. “But in the last two years we have had two of the longest dry spells on record.”

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Above-normal temperatures continued into December, with the average temperature for the month being 62.3 degrees, compared to the normal average of 55.8 degrees. The year ended with record warmth for Phoenix.

Low temperatures tend to lead to poor air quality, but the lack of precipitation and stable air means that holiday air pollution from fireworks and fireplaces lingers in the valley.

“A big part of the air quality issue is whether we’re going to have strong winds throughout the day to remove pollutants from the subway and spread them around,” Young said. “The air isn’t moving much, and (pollutants) are trapped in the lower atmosphere.”

Does it snow in Flagstaff?

Arizona snow lovers will be disappointed in Flagstaff this season. Arizona’s snowiest city recorded just 2.7 inches of snow from October to January 2nd.

The average snowfall to date was 80.9 inches, making this cold season definitely different from previous years. So far, this year is the 13th coldest season on record, in stark contrast to last year, when we had 33.7 inches of snow.

The average temperature in December was 36.7 degrees, 6.7 degrees higher than normal, so the above-average temperature appears to have contributed.

A drier-than-usual winter in the highlands has raised concerns about wildfires and water supplies, but there is still time for winter weather to improve.

“There’s still time,” Taylor said. “January isn’t looking very good, but we still have a few months of winter left after that. We might see some snow, but if we don’t, that would definitely be a concern. ”

Haley Evans writes about extreme weather for The Arizona Republic and related topics. azcentral.com. Email her your story tips. hayleigh.evans@arizonarepublic.com.

This article originally appeared in the Arizona Republic. A ridge of high pressure is keeping winter storms away from Arizona.