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With Nikki Haley Out, Where Will Her Voters Go In November?

  • Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley's recent withdrawal from the Republican presidential primary has some speculating where her supporters will go in November.
  • Some Republican strategists believe that a majority of Haley's supporters would have voted for President Joe Biden anyway, but told the Daily Caller News Foundation that a smaller portion of the Republican base of Haley's supporters said he is likely to ultimately support former President Donald Trump.
  • “Many of them will realize that Trump's policies are better for them and their families than Biden's. And they will hold their noses and squeeze their eyes shut and even though they hate Donald Trump, they will But they hate Biden's policies even more,” veteran Republican strategist Mark Weaver told DCNF.

Political observers are wondering how former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's legion of Republican primary voters will ultimately fare in November's rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. I have doubts.

Haley withdrew from the race Wednesday after winning just one state on Super Tuesday against Trump, but refused to endorse her former boss as a possible candidate. Political strategists primarily told the Daily Caller News Foundation that there was no need to worry about losing Haley's support base to Biden.

“I think people have a huge misunderstanding of who voted for Haley,” Scott Jennings, a veteran Republican strategist and campaign manager, told DCNF. “So many of these people don't have Republican votes. They're Democrats. They're either independents who act like Democrats, or they're 'never Trumps' who didn't vote for Trump in '16 or '20. Republican.” ”

“To persuade 'non-Trump' voters who supported Ms. Haley to come to his side even though they have never been with her, or at least have not been together. “The idea that he would have to go on a reconciliation tour in 20 years is crazy! That's not going to happen,” Jennings added. (Related: Failed Republicans, Biden Voters — See People At Nikki Haley's New Hampshire Rally)

Leaving CNN vote Results from several Republican primaries show that Haley receives most of her support from “moderate/liberal” voters, Democrats, and independents. The survey also showed that many Haley supporters were first-time Republican primary voters.

An overwhelming majority of Hailey voters said they supported Biden. Virginia and north carolinaAnd very few people said they would vote Republican. [November] Regardless of the candidate.

Many states that have held contests for the Republican nomination have had open or semi-open primaries, allowing Democrats and independent voters to participate.

“Open primaries are an open invitation to partisan shenanigans,” veteran Republican strategist Mark Weaver told DCNF. “Democrats could sneak into the Republican primary and wreak havoc on the candidate they hate the most. Many of Nikki Haley's voters were like that. They either are Democrats or they like Nikki Haley. There are no left-wing independents who just want to mess with Donald Trump, and the openness of the primaries allows that.”

New York Times/Siena College investigation Only 9% of Haley's registered Republican primary voters said they supported Trump last time, and 89% pledged to support Biden in 2024, according to an announcement Sunday. was. Only 16% of Republicans supported Haley over Trump.

The same poll found that 97% of 2020 Trump voters said they would support him in November, compared to 83% of former Biden supporters. Additionally, 10% of former Biden voters said they would support Trump in 2024.

PALM BEACH, FL – MARCH 5: Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump gestures to supporters at an election night watch party at Mar-a-Lago. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Haley won vermont state and Washington DCreceived the next largest percentage of votes in the primary. new hampshire It was 43.2%. The former ambassador encouraged President Trump to “earn” support from voters during his campaign stop speech.

Previously, the former president Said Haley's supporters have been “permanently barred” from his campaign.playing cards changed When she left school, she listened to his songs and said, “I would like to invite all of Haley's supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of this country.”

Biden also said: play Addressing voters after Haley's speech.

“Donald Trump has made it clear that he does not want Nikki Haley supporters. Let me be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign,” Biden said in a statement. “I know there are many things we don't agree on. But we need to preserve American democracy, uphold the rule of law, treat each other with civility and dignity and respect, and NATO. I hope and believe that we can find common ground on the fundamental issues of preserving and confronting America's adversaries.”

Still, Republican operatives primarily worry that Trump will support Haley when faced with a choice between her and Biden, drawing support from disaffected Republican voters. He argued that there was no need.

“There's no denying that some Nikki Haley voters are disillusioned with Republicans. They will have to choose between the Biden economy and the Trump economy in the fall,” Weaver said. “Many of them will realize that Trump's policies will serve them and their families better than Biden's. And they will hold their noses, squeeze their eyes shut, and even if they don't like Donald Trump, they won't give up on his buttons. But they will hate Biden's policies even more.”

Polls largely show that voters feel better about the Trump administration than the Biden administration. Only 18% of registered voters said Biden's policies had helped. [them] Personally, 40% said the same about President Trump, according to a NYT/Siena College poll.

John McHenry, a Republican polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, highlighted the trends in the polls and told DCNF that Haley's supporters could flip in the general election. .

“At this point in the campaign, the biggest question for November is 'Which candidate can hold more ground?'” McHenry told DCNF. “The difference between saying “I'm not going to vote for Donald Trump'' right after endorsing Nikki Haley in the primary and actually choosing between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in November, especially when voters It's a whole different story now, when so many of them are saying they were better off during President Trump's term than they are now.”

Jim Hobart, a Republican pollster at Public Opinion Strategies, echoed McHenry's sentiments.

“In both 2016 and 2020, Republicans who expressed reluctance to support Trump during the Republican primary or general election campaign almost universally did not support Trump by Election Day,” Hobart told DCNF. “I'm back,'' he said. “My prediction is that 2024 will be the same, especially given how unpopular President Biden is with all Republicans.”

Conversely, Dr. Charles Bullock, an election expert and political science professor at the University of Georgia, warned that Trump will not be able to win over some of Haley's Republican base.

“I think he should obviously be concerned. Especially in states like Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, where just a few votes can sway the outcome, every vote counts,” Block said. he told DCNF.

Haley's voters include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., “Justice for All” candidate Cornel West, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and No Labels' “Unity Ticket.”

Bullock said she will be watching to see how many “true Republican voters” continue to vote for Haley in the remaining elections to gauge how many may defect in November.

Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi, and Washington will hold their respective Republican primaries on March 12th, and several more will be held on March 19th.

Haley, the Trump and Biden campaigns did not respond to DCNF's requests for comment.

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