For weeks, experts, analysts, pollsters and politicians have been poring over every bit of data available from early voting and last-minute polls.
There is as much data to analyze as possible. Amid this frenzy, here are five key trends that could indicate who is likely to win the White House.
1. Early Return to Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is unsurprisingly cited as the state where both sides are most likely to win more than 270 electoral votes.
June, 5:38am published Its election model determined that Pennsylvania was most likely to be a “tipping point.”
Republican pollster Frank Luntz said Fox News on Monday reported that former President Donald Trump would win the presidential election if he could win either Pennsylvania or Michigan.
Decision Desk Headquarters recently said, “We do not expect either candidate to reach 270 electoral votes unless they win Pennsylvania, which is currently a close race.” reported. various public opinion poll Both candidates are in a dead heat.
This election cycle, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has outsourced much of its vote-gathering efforts to grassroots groups, which have been trolling Pennsylvania to target low-traffic voters such as hunters and gun owners. . (Related: Conservatives reveal plan to awaken huge dormant electorate that could decide White House and Senate)
“80,000 votes [in Pennsylvania] Now that we have decided on 2020, let’s take a closer look at it. There are 90,000 Amish people in Pennsylvania. That’s an election. So we get the Amish vote, we go to farmers markets, we go to their villages and towns. We meet them where they are,” Early Vote Action founder Scott Pressler previously told the Daily Caller.
“There are 80,000 truck drivers in Pennsylvania…many of them won’t vote on Election Day because they drive their rigs. So we’re trying to get them to receive their mail-in ballots. We’re trying to get them to vote early, because how are they going to vote if they’re driving? That 80,000 number is very likely to win Pennsylvania.” he continued.
On the other hand, the Harris camp said Reporters say 807,000 doors were knocked on in the Keystone State this weekend.
It was a great day to knock on doors in Pennsylvania. @KamalaHarris & @Tim_Walz! #Harris_Waltz2024 pic.twitter.com/mMnl9yh4Ua
— Casey Peaks (@kcpeeks) November 3, 2024
pennsylvania news
➡️ In 2020, Democrats had an advantage by over 1.1 million mail-in votes
➡️ As of 2024, the Democratic advantage is only 400,000 people.
-700,000
Yes, this is good for Trump.
Return your unpaid mail-in ballot and vote on Tuesday.
Trump 2024
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) November 2, 2024
2. How close is Virginia?
Virginia is most likely to beat Harris, but her margin may speak for itself.
“I think for Mr. Trump to win the White House, he needs to get within 7 points in Virginia. Below 6, he has a very good chance of winning, and somehow below 5, he’s in the clear.” ,” Christian Hines, a political analyst, election modeler and co-host of the podcast “Making the Argument,” told the Caller.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points. A year later, Republican Glenn Youngkin pulled off an upset to win the governor’s seat, stunning the White House. On Friday, Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) released its final report. public opinion pollshowed the vice president leading Trump in the state by a 10-point margin, 51% to 41%.
Talk of Virginia being a strong contender was more prominent when Biden was still the Democratic nominee, but Republicans replayed Youngkin’s strategy in hopes of making the state more competitive. (Related: Trump team relies on Youngkin’s strategy to reverse Virginia Red)
“More than 5,000 GOTV volunteers will be augmented by 500 election attorneys at polling places across Virginia,” Virginia Republican Party Chairman Rich Anderson previously told the Caller.
Virginia is one of two competitive states, along with Georgia, and polls close at 7pm ET, so it could be an early indicator.
“The 7th Congressional District is one of the most competitive in the country, and if Trump is winning, it’s because of rural turnout in the western edge of the district around Culpeper, where I live. “It’s high, and that’s because Trump is winning over Hispanic and black voters,” in Prince William County. A win there would mean they’re in great shape in Georgia and Pennsylvania. “Even if you lose the seventh and stay close, that’s probably a better sign than not winning,” Hynes told the Caller.
3. Muslims in Michigan
Uncommitted votes undermined Biden’s primary victory in Michigan, and those same voters could undermine Harris’ presidential bid on Tuesday.
There is a massive effort in the battleground state to punish the vice president for his Middle East policies, and some election officials say they fear the state will break through the “blue wall.” It has been reported.
🧵 President Trump expressed concern on Truth Social that Arab Americans are dissatisfied with Kamala Harris.
The Daily Caller recently delved into dissatisfaction with Harris in Michigan’s Muslim community and touched on some of the same concerns. pic.twitter.com/QQS0X3zGwt
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 21, 2024
In the primary election, 81.1% of Democratic voters chose Biden, but 13.3% (more than 100,000 people) chose not to commit to the election in protest against the president. Protests did not stop even after Harris became the candidate. The Islamic organization “Abandon biden biden” changes its brand name to “Abandon Harris.” Another Muslim group, Drive for 75, previously told the Caller that it had done mathematical calculations that if 75% of the community voted in the 2024 election, Trump would have a 99.9% chance of winning the state. . (Related article: ‘We are in despair’: Socialists and Muslims unite to deny Harris the White House)
The organization visits mosques and holds various voting events to engage the Muslim community in voting. Whether they vote for Trump or the Green Party’s choice, Dr. Jill Stein, the organization told the caller it’s a vote for Harris.
“We hope that no one, Republican or Democrat, will take our vote for granted. [spoiling Harris’s chances]I hope this book teaches Republicans as well as Democrats that going against the voters is going against the people. If you continue to support genocide, you will lose,” Democrat Khalid Tourani, co-chair of Michigan’s Abandon Biden campaign, previously told the Caller.
4. Harris’ pitch to suburban women
Former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney frequently appears on the campaign trail with Harris. it’s part of everything Democratic Party’s argument The aim is to win the hearts of some right-wing women who are disillusioned with President Trump.
Semaphore editor-in-chief Ben Smith predicted Monday morning that if Ms. Harris overtakes Mr. Trump in the election, the media will make the mistake of focusing on younger men instead of older women. Similarly, prominent Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer released a highly controversial poll over the weekend showing Harris leading Trump among older women, 63% to 28%. It was shown that By contrast, the vice president led senior leaders by just two points.
If Harris does well among older white women, she could do better in the Blue Wall, where white voters are more prominent than in the Sunbelt.
5. Trump’s response in Iowa
Selzer’s shocking polling was a major outlier in a field of polls where nearly every poll shows a close race.
Trump’s campaign quickly criticized the poll, pointing to an Emerson College poll also released over the weekend that showed the former president with a double-digit lead in Iowa.
“The Des Moines Register also claims that Harris has a 20-point lead among women (56-36). According to CNN Exit, President Trump will lead Biden among women in 2020. 49-49,” Trump’s campaign memo claims.
“Again, today’s Emerson College poll is closer to the exit and instead shows President Trump with a 5-point lead – 52-47.”
Selzer himself said he was shocked by the data he presented.
“I’ve been in shock since last Tuesday morning,” she said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “So I had time to figure this out, because no one, including me, thought Iowa was going to get Kamala Harris.”
The only scenario in which either candidate wins by a landslide is if the polls are way off. As soon as the Iowa polls close at 9 p.m., it will become clear whether Selzer’s poll was an anomaly or a bellwether, but it will depend on how much the rest of the polling industry does this time around. It will give you some insight as to how accurate it is.
