Political Ads Set to Air for Special Election
As of Tuesday, political TV ads worth millions are anticipated to begin airing ahead of the upcoming special election.
The measures surrounding Proposal 50 could potentially impact the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives and influence various Trump-era policies.
In a notable district in central California, opponents have reportedly secured over $10 million in advertising slots across the state from Tuesday until September 23, according to media buyers not connected to either campaign. Meanwhile, supporters have already invested around $2 million in advertisements since Tuesday, a number likely to increase as the campaign moves forward, especially on television.
“This early advertising push seems a bit sneaky from the opposition, but past campaigns have shown it’s a tactic to demonstrate strength and force the other side to scramble,” one analyst noted. “It’s shaping up to be a costly race, particularly for special elections that kick off early.”
The campaign is also tied to a multi-million-dollar initiative in advance of the November 4 special election, aiming to overturn the congressional map set by California’s Independent Election Commission in 2021. This commission, which voters established in 2010, sought to eliminate gerrymandering and favoritism for incumbents across party lines.
The pace of this campaign is quickening. A glossy mailer has already made its way into the mailboxes of Californian voters, arriving before the state legislature’s decision to hold a special election in late August. Voters will begin receiving mail-in ballots in early October.
Redistricting, usually a process occurring a decade after the U.S. census, has drawn significant attention due to partisan maneuvers intended to sway control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. While Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, it’s common for the party in power to lose seats in Congress during subsequent elections.
This past summer, Trump urged Texas Governor Greg Abbott to redraw legislative districts to add five Republican representatives, igniting a nationwide effort to alter district boundaries. Conversely, California Governor Gavin Newsom initiated a campaign to adjust state legislative lines to increase Democratic representation in Congress, amid Republican opposition, pending voter approval.
The coalition opposing this redistricting effort comprises a unique mix, including former Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, prominent Republican donor Charles Munger Jr., former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and others.
Many within both parties initially fought against the independent redistricting initiative back in 2010, which was advocated by Schwarzenegger and Munger.
Jessica Milan Patterson, the former state GOP chair and leader of McCarthy’s initiative against the new congressional boundaries, faced questions about the contradictions in her stance. She emphasized that voters have made their preferences clear, supporting independent committees for districting rather than relying on Sacramento politicians.
“Californians have spoken,” she asserted, suggesting that the majority favor an independent body over partisan politicians redrawing district lines.
Patterson’s group, known as the “Stop Sacramento Power Glove,” plans to concentrate on conservative and central voter demographics, and she claims the campaign will be well-funded.
McCarthy, while a strong fundraiser, faces competition from Jeff Miller, a colleague in Congress, who is also raising funds to oppose the voting measures.
Interestingly, Schwarzenegger does not align himself with McCarthy’s campaign but is instead supporting Munger’s broader objectives. Patterson remarked that Schwarzenegger’s acknowledgment of their shared goals elevates their cause, even if they’re not officially collaborating.
“Governor Schwarzenegger is who he is,” she stated, noting his celebrity status might draw attention to their mission, especially as he has been vocal about ending gerrymandering.
Schwarzenegger has long been an advocate for political reform, focusing on voting measures that foster independent districting during his last year in office. Post-governorship, he has continued promoting good governance through his institute at the University of Southern California, calling for similar reforms nationwide.
In a previous Facebook video, he humorously pointed out that many things are less popular than Congress, suggesting that even conditions like herpes wouldn’t poll as poorly.
Munger, who has contributed over $10 million to defeat the upcoming voting measure, is reportedly backing efforts to maintain the reforms established in 2010. By September 23, his organization had reportedly reserved around $8.7 million for TV campaigns.
“These advertisements represent the beginning of our direct outreach to voters about the dangers of allowing politicians to manipulate voter districts,” stated Amy Thoma, a spokesperson for Munger’s coalition.
Supporters of redistricting argue that Republicans are attempting to secure Republican dominance in national policies.
“Trump’s allies are pouring resources into losing [Prop.] 50 and trying to tilt the 2026 election,” campaign spokesperson Hannah Millgrom remarked.
