They already face a difficult map as they try to hold a very thin majority in the Senate. next year’s electionDemocrats now have another open seat to defend in 2024.
Longtime Maryland Senator Ben Cardin announced this week that he will not seek re-election next year. of the Democratic Senate Election Committee concern. Maryland is definitely a blue state, and the state’s most popular Republican, former two-term governor Larry Hogan, continues to show little interest in running for the Senate.
Democrats overthrew Republican-held Senate seats in Pennsylvania in last November’s midterm elections and now have a 51-49 majority in the House, including three independent senators who will caucuse at the Democratic convention. is holding
In other words, Republicans would need a net gain of just one or two seats in 2024, depending on which party controls the White House after the 2024 presidential election, to regain a majority.
Game on in West Virginia as GOP GOV.Justice Begins 2024 Senate Bids
Mathematics and Maps show that Republicans will have the upper hand in 2024. Democrats are defending her 23 of her 34 seats, including her three in red states and a minority in battlegrounds in major general elections.
However, the Republican Party was bitten by an expected red wave and ended with a nibble in last year’s midterm elections. former president trump And there is no doubt that Republicans lost the House majority, backing the former president, who repeatedly complained of losing the 2020 election, stumbled in the general election.
FIRST ON FOX: Senate Republicans Build War Chests for Final GOP Candidates in 2024 Key States
Here are the four Senate seats most likely to turn Republican on Election Day November 2024.
Senator Joe ManchinA moderate Democrat who is often at odds with the party’s progressives, Senate leadership and the White House, it has not yet been announced whether he will serve another six-year term in the Senate in 2024.
Manchin has stepped up his criticism of President Biden’s leadership and agenda in recent weeks, denying chatter that he might run as a third-party candidate on a no-label ticket that could run for the White House next year. refusing to do
Once a credible democracy, west virginia The recent cycle has shifted overwhelmingly to the red, with Trump leading the state in the 2020 election by a whopping 39 points.
The NRSC, which sees a Senate seat held in West Virginia as its biggest target next year as Democrats aim to regain control of the House, has already started setting its sights on Manchin.
Democrats know that if former West Virginia Gov. Manchin decides not to seek another term, that seat will all but be lost.
Manchin raised just $371,000 in its January-March 2023 first quarter fundraising, but has nearly $10 million in campaign funding and enjoys support from pro-democracy outside groups .
As two-term West Virginia governor Jim Justice kicked off his Senate campaign last week, longtime Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell got the recruits he’d been eyeing. Before he can go, the wealthy businessman-turned-politician must win what is likely to be a race for the Republican nomination against wealthy, anti-tax Rep. Alex Mooney. yeah. , a conservative group outside Club for Growth. A verbal firing between Justice and Mooney has already taken place.
Democrats breathed a sigh of relief Senator John Tester of Montana It announced earlier this year that it would seek re-election in 2024 in a state where Trump led 16 points three years ago. The Democratic incumbent raised his $5 million in the first quarter of this year’s fundraising.
Some Republicans have their eyes on Tim Sheehy. Tim Sheehy is a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who has flown more than 200 missions in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and elsewhere around the world. and Sheehy, CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a wildfire monitoring service, are being urged to run for Senate in the US capital.
Additionally, GOP sources told Fox News that one of the people pushing for Sheehy’s candidacy is another senator from Montana, Republican Steve Daines, who will chair the NRSC this election cycle. I have confirmed that
If Sheehy runs, he could face off in a competitive primary against far-right Rep. Matt Rosendale, who is seriously considering running. Rosendale is likely to secure the endorsement of Club for Growth.
Longtime Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is his party’s only non-judicial election winner. Ohio Statewide Elections in the last ten years. Brown will run for Ohio in his fourth term in 2024, his six-year stint in what was once a hotly contested first general election, but has turned to losses in the last six years. You will be targeted by Republicans in your state.
Republican Senate primaries heat up in Ohio
Trump edged Ohio by 8 points in winning the 2016 presidential election and losing in 2020 re-election. Last year Trump’s handpicked Ohio Senate candidate — now Senator J.D. We had a near-perfect campaign.
Having served as a congressman, state senator and Ohio secretary of state in a career spanning nearly half a century of electoral politics, Brown is very well known throughout Buckeye. The senator, known as an advocate for the populist movement, has raised his $3.6 million in his first three months of the year.
Two Republicans who lost the 2022 Republican Senate nomination in Ohio are already in the race to oust Brown.
Senator Matt Dolan, a former county attorney general and Ohio assistant attorney general, began his campaign in January. Major Dolan, whose family owns his league Cleveland baseball and his Guardians, has poured millions of his own money into advertising his 2022 Senate candidacy. He surged near the end of the primary, finishing third in a crowded field of Republican candidates, winning almost a quarter of the vote.
Last month Bernie Moreno, a successful Cleveland-based businessman and luxury auto dealer giant, announced his candidacy. Moreno, an immigrant who legally arrived in the United States from Colombia with his family as a 5-year-old boy, also put up millions of his own money to run a TV commercial to try and boost the first Senate bid. However, he put his campaign on hold. After requesting and holding closed-door meetings with Trump last February.
Rep. Warren Davidson and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose are among other Republicans considering running for the Senate.
Democratic Independent Sen. Kirsten Cinema appears to be gearing up for re-election campaign, Senate race battlefield arizona The 2024 cycle is likely to be the most complex.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is already running left-wing, beating cinema by $1.7 million in the first quarter, while incumbents enjoy a nearly $7 million advantage in cash on hand.
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb recently became the first major GOP candidate to launch a campaign. Former state attorney general candidate Abe Hamade and former Arizona board member Karin Taylor-Robson — who narrowly lost last year’s GOP gubernatorial nomination to former TV anchor Kari Lake — consider a Senate bid. On that occasion he met with the NRSC. Republican businessman Jim Lamon, who failed to run for the Republican Senate nomination in Arizona last year, is also considering running for a second consecutive run.
There is a lot of speculation and concern among Republicans that Lake, who was narrowly defeated in last year’s gubernatorial election and continues to win, may launch a campaign for the Senate.
The other six states — four Democrat-held and two Republican-controlled — could face hot Senate elections next year.
Democratic Senator Jackie Rosen is running for re-election in battleground state Nevada. Mr. Rosen won the seat in his 2018 Blue Wave election by five points. But President Biden edged out Trump in his 2020, and last November Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez, his former state attorney, won re-election by less than a point. General Adam Laxalt.
No major Republican congressman has yet to announce in Nevada.
In a battleground in Midwest Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is a leading candidate to win her party’s nomination in a race to retire fellow Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin raised about $3 million in the first quarter of this year.
In the race for the Republican nomination in Michigan, state school board member Nicky Snyder opened a bid in February. Former Congressman Peter Meyer, who lost his 2022 re-election bid after voting to impeach Trump, is considering a Senate run. Two of his unsuccessful candidates in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary in Michigan — businessman Kevin Linke and former Detroit police chief James Craig — are also considering campaigning.
Two-term Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin announced last month that she would be running for re-election in Wisconsin, another Midwest battleground state. So far, no major Republicans have participated in the election or expressed interest in running.
Longtime Democratic Senator Bob Casey announced last month that he is seeking a fourth term in the Senate to represent battleground Pennsylvania. A moderate congressman, former State Comptroller and Treasurer, and son of a former two-term governor, he is very well known in Keystone State.
Republicans across the country want Dave McCormick — a former hedge fund executive, West Point alumnus, Gulf War veteran and Treasury official from the former President George W. Bush administration — to run for Senate. McCormick conceded in June last year to Mehmet Oz, a noted heart surgeon and physician, by less than 1,000 votes in the Republican Senate primary. Oz narrowly won the Republican nomination, partly due to Trump’s endorsement, but lost to Democratic Senator John Fetterman in the general election.
Former state senator Doug Mastriano, a far-right Trump supporter who lost last year’s gubernatorial race by double digits, is also considering bidding.
In Texas, Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term to represent Lone Star State. A conservative agitator and runner-up for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, he survived a tough re-election to then-representatives in 2018. Beto O’Rourke.
Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, a former professional soccer player, could be in the race with Cruz in the coming days.
But it’s going to be a tall order for Trump to oust Cruz in 2020 with a trusty red lead that led by six points and longtime Republican Gov. Greg Abbott overwhelmed O’Rourke by 11 points last year.
It’s a similar story in Florida, where former Republican Governor Rick Scott, who narrowly won the 2018 Senate election, is seeking a second term. Florida used to be the best purple state, but in recent years it has become more and more red: Last November, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected 19 points behind him, and Marco his Senator Rubio. He was re-elected by almost 17 points.
