a A growing number of Arizona Republican political operatives are seriously considering former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake to run for the Senate seat currently held by Senator Kristen Cinema (I-AZ). I am not convinced that there is

However, most agree that if she does decide to run, she will be considered the most formidable opponent in the Republican primary.

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Those close to Lake claim she is seriously considering running for the Senate. Lake is currently in Budapest, Hungary, attending the Conservative Political Action Conference. Just this week she announced the release of her memoir. Lake posted a photo “Are you ready for the next chapter?” he said on Twitter on Wednesday.

The former Arizona gubernatorial candidate showed up at former President Donald Trump’s Florida mansion and met with Republican officials in Washington. She also served as an avid agent for the former president.

This week, Colton Duncan, Lake’s senior advisor, said: Expedited shipping He said he was “99% certain she will run for Senate.”Duncan, a political operative from Texas She was with Lake every step of the gubernatorial campaign. It has made similar statements over the past few months.

“If I were a bettor, I would bet on the farm where Kari Lake would become a Senator,” said Duncan. washington post last month. “I’m 99% sure she’ll run, and if she does, I’m 100% sure she’ll win.”

But Republicans involved in state politics think her recent travel schedule signals the opposite.

“She’s more interested in honing her domestic and international credit than paying attention to Arizona,” said Arizona-based Republican strategist Barrett Merson. “She tends to be seen in Mar-a-Lago more than in the Biltmore,” Marson said, referring to the luxury resort in Phoenix.

Lake’s chances of running are unpredictable as the general election for the seat held by former Democrat Cinema, who became an independent in December, is likely to be a three-way contest. Expected to add elements. Progressives announced that they will run as Democrat Reuben He endorses Rep. Gallego (Democrat-Arizona).

The Republican campaign is still developing, and with Arizona’s filing deadline in April next year, it could take longer to flesh out. The state primary is not until August 2024 for him.Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb Becomes First Republican take part in the race last month. Republican Blake Masters, who lost the bid for the Senate It was down 5 percentage points last year, but we’re still considering doing it.Same goes for Abe Hamade Who lost the 2022 Attorney General electionKarin Taylor Robson Lost in gubernatorial primary To Lake last year, and to Republican businessman Jim Lamon, loser in preliminaries Another Senate seat for Arizona in 2022.

“She’s running around Iowa, Hungary, or Mar-a-Lago, which means it’s still early. She can run and run all things,” said an Arizona-based Republican operative. rice field. “She certainly isn’t acting like someone planning a Senate campaign in Arizona.”

Most Arizona political strategists Washington Jury They admitted that they had no specific knowledge of Lake’s plan.

“Personally, she didn’t run and enjoys her celebrity status within alt-right networks, and appreciates that and her ability to use her background in the news in a way that promotes other candidates. I think they will continue to enjoy it,” Arizona political strategist Chuck Coughlin said.

By contrast, Republicans across the board in Washington are waiting for Lake to announce his candidacy for the Senate in the near future. Lake said she met with officials at the National Republican Senate Committee in early February, and although it’s unclear what exactly happened at that meeting, Chairman Steve Danes (R-MT) said: says. clarified It is said that it is focusing on gathering candidates who can win the general election.

After a disappointing midterm election cycle, the Senate Republican campaign branch, under Daines’ new leadership, has been more aggressive in either party’s primaries in an attempt to recruit candidates with wider voter appeal. It looks like he’s taking sides. Lake is still popular among Arizona primary voters in the state, and it’s unclear what kind of influence they could have. JL Partners Last month, the Arizona Senate Republican primary found Lake to have 38% of the support among registered Republicans and undeclared voters. Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate and developer Taylor Robson is next in his 10%.

Arizona politicians believe Republicans across the country and those who invest in the Senate race feel helpless in the situation, and the state is pushing toward a mainstream candidate who could lead them to victory. I’m not optimistic about moving forward.

“Kari Lake is going to do what she sets out to do. Even if we discourage her candidacy, it will probably do the opposite and backfire,” Anonymous for Speaking Candidly said the Washington-based Republican strategist who called for the nomination.

Another Republican strategist with ties to Arizona said voter frenzy over right-leaning candidates who failed to win the general election was putting Republicans across the country on the back foot.

“This race will be a great opportunity for Republicans to engage in an all-out campaign, but the dynamic is just an absolute turn-off for the NRSC and the group nationally,” said the person, who will remain anonymous. “When I talk to Republicans across the country, they’re kind of giving up because they know if she runs for the primary, she’ll win. If we lose, we will finish her off once and for all.

Others aren’t convinced Lake would win the primary if he decided to race.

“She’s going to be a favorite — I’m not denying it — but her popularity is waning,” Merson said. What’s changed this time? Dynamics of a three-way competition, but still the same contender.”

It’s almost impossible to predict Lake’s next move. Her Trump-supporting gubernatorial run non-traditional, And her rise in a major battleground state surprised state and national political officials. She was known to be heavily involved in her campaign and had a small group of mostly young advisers who came from outside traditional Republican political circles. She even alienated some voters when she repeatedly attacked the legacy of the late Arizona Republican Senator John McCain, who had little in common with the Republicans who ran before her and who is still respected in Arizona. bottom.

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Republicans have lost three recent Senate elections and the last presidential and gubernatorial races in a state that was once a major Republican stronghold. With Cinema switching to independents, Republicans see a golden opportunity to win this election with a majority vote, but they may miss another chance if Lake runs in the primary and wins. Concerned.

Lake continued to endorse the former president and endorsed his run for president in 2024. She’s also shown no signs of softening her stolen election claims.

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Independent and independent voters have tripled over the past 30 years to 1.4 million, nearly one-third of the voting populationwhy many don’t believe Lake has a chance of winning the general election.

“They failed in 2018, 2020, 22 and continue down this path of competing with this very narrow group of Republican voters, leaving a bunch of other Republican voters outside,” Coughlin said. “I don’t believe they’ve learned that lesson. They’re still sniffing out Trump’s glue.”