Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, released the results of a long-awaited report from the state’s Department of Water Resources that predicts that about 4 percent of groundwater demand, or 4.9 million acre feet of water, will continue to go unmet. For the next 100 years, nothing will have to be done.

The report is a chilling warning to the country’s fifth-largest city and metropolitan area of ​​more than five million people, a hotspot for new residents and tech company development. . Around Phoenix, large subdivisions have sprung up in the desert, with hundreds of thousands more homes under construction. The region added more than 70,000 people last year, the largest increase of any major metropolitan area in the United States.

But as the western climate becomes hotter and drier, and major water sources such as the Colorado River dwindle, the decline in groundwater supplies outlined in the new report will not be what residents of the Southwest expect. It could mean a future that is very different from the future that has become. .

Former Arizona Attorney General and Phoenix Mayor Terry Goddard said the study’s message was, “You live on borrowed water.”

“You have to be aware of every drop,” he says. “You can’t build a building if you don’t know exactly where the water is coming from.”

To build subdivisions in much of Arizona, developers must prove they have enough water to last 100 years. Many cities in and around Phoenix (Scottsdale, Mesa, Gilbert, Goodyear, etc.) have already been designated by the state as having “reliable” water supplies that meet this standard.

However, many locations growing at a breakneck pace in Phoenix’s outer ring do not have these designations, and this report could complicate future development in those areas.

In these areas, such as Queen Creek and Buckeye, unapproved subdivisions can get you into trouble. New projects using only groundwater in such areas will not be approved for construction.

To solve this problem, the town of Queen Creek, east of Phoenix, is competing to import water from elsewhere in the state to ensure future supplies and satisfy rapid growth. there is The town spent $27 million to purchase Colorado River water from farms in western Arizona, and the water is expected to begin arriving this month. And while it has signed another $30 million contract for groundwater rights in the Hulkuahala Valley, it still has a long way to go before that water is ready to be delivered, said Paul Gardner, the town’s water resources director. And the price of these far-flung supplies is only going up.

Gardner said Queen Creek has about 10,000 lots ready for construction and will not be affected by the new assessment of the groundwater supply. But future projects and some currently planned developments that have not yet obtained water certification could face problems, he said.

“You’re still looking at the backyard…we’re building a lot of houses,” said Gardner. “But if you’re someone who doesn’t have it, it will affect you greatly.”

He said Queen Creek has five landlords with plans to build about 6,000 homes, and that’s the situation.

One of them is sixth-generation Arizona developer Dan Reeve, who owns hundreds of acres of undeveloped land in Queen Creek.

Reeve is optimistic about Phoenix’s ability to manage water scarcity in the long term, but securing water supplies will come at a higher cost, adding an average of $15,000 to $25,000 to home prices. I think there is a possibility that

“Arizona has become very good at maintaining a four-bed, two-and-a-half bathroom, three-car garage. [homes]And the great work that comes with it,” Reeve said. But with water scarcity looming, “it won’t be as cheap and easy as it has been in the last 50 years of tremendous growth.”

“Believe it or not, I think the Phoenix subway will add another million people here,” Reeve added. “Once you go beyond that, it’s going to start to matter.”

The Arizona Department of Water Resources has previously published findings of this kind in other areas around Phoenix. In 2019, a survey of the Pinal County water management area, southeast of the city, found 8 million acre-feet of groundwater shortfall, about 10 percent of the amount of groundwater needed to meet next century demand. found. Hobbes released another groundwater report in January that found 4.4 million acre feet of groundwater deficit over a 100-year period in an area west of Phoenix known as the Hassayampa Basin, which supplies water to the burgeoning Buckeye region. announced. One acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons of water.

Building industry insiders say the decision has already wreaked havoc on the building industry, with major projects in these western suburbs being halted until water supplies are proven.

“We lost a billion dollars,” said one Phoenix construction industry insider who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity. “We were planning to build more than 100,000 to 150,000 homes in the Hassayampa basin, but they are all on hold.”

In the Sonoran Desert, dotted with saguaro cacti and backed by rocky peaks, the fate of a large-scale housing development is now in question.known as the largest Terravaris, is expected to include about 100,000 homes spread over 37,000 acres. Once built, it will be the largest planned community in the state.

However, most of its properties have not yet obtained the necessary water permits for construction.

Developer Howard Hughes did not respond to a request for comment.

Buckeye is also entering the expensive water market. It recently signed an $80 million contract to purchase groundwater rights in rural areas of the state specifically designated for water transfer. And in response to the state’s January groundwater survey, Buckeye issued the following statement: statement Alleviate water supply concerns.

“The future of Buckeye’s water is secure,” the city said.

Arizona’s renewed focus on defending its 100-year-old water supply is putting pressure on cities in the Phoenix metropolitan area to scrutinize developments more closely.

“It’s something every city is working on,” says Mark Freeman, a farmer and city council member in Mesa, just east of Phoenix.

However, the problem is not evenly distributed across the region. According to Warren Tenney, executive director of the Arizona City Water Users Association, which represents 10 cities in the Phoenix area, cities have vastly different water portfolios, including groundwater, the Colorado River, and surplus water stored in underground facilities. It is said that they depend on each other to varying degrees.

Cities in that network “are investing billions in water resources and water infrastructure because they don’t just rely on groundwater,” he said.

But in a new community outside of Phoenix, you may have little choice but to soak up the underground aquifer.

In the study, water experts identified an updated groundwater system with uniform statewide requirements to better manage pumping and not waste groundwater supplies that could one day be used to make up for severe shortages. He said the need for standards had become apparent.

Many also point to a gradual shift from agriculture to urban development as Phoenix and its surrounding areas become more densely populated, bringing some water savings as dry farms stop producing. I’m here.

“We have to grow responsibly,” says Sharon Megdal, director of the University of Arizona Center for Water Resources Research. “What these models suggest is that growth patterns may change. [where] Land costs are higher, but other infrastructure costs can also be higher. ”

“But this is part of our reality check and it’s a fitting one,” she said. “It’s about making sure people who buy these homes are confident that the water is there.”