Robert Baca's political compass has always been toward the Republican Party, but lately he feels like he doesn't fit in there.
Although he voted for Donald Trump in the past two presidential elections, Baca distances himself from the culture wars that seem to enrage today's staunch Republicans. Instead, he wants Washington to address the economic turmoil and rising costs of daily life.
He has been called a RINO (short for “Republican in Name Only”) when he suggested the two parties should work together. Although he still supports conservative candidates most of the time, he is no longer a surefire Republican vote.
“For me, it's not a party issue. It's a policy and personal issue,” Baca, 46, said.
Baca lives in one of the four Orange County House districts expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation in 2024, as Republicans and Democrats vie for control of the House.
Mr. Baca, a small business owner, is part of an important emerging group in Orange County's political landscape, described by University of California, Irvine researchers as “modestly partisan Republicans” in a poll released Wednesday. There is also. This group differs from traditional Republican voters in several important ways. They are wealthier, more diverse, more socially liberal, and less resistant to being taxed to solve climate change and homelessness. said John Gould, dean of UCI's School of Social Ecology, who spearheaded the poll.
Orange County, once considered the conservative heartland of Southern California, has transformed into a more culturally, economically, and politically diverse region, allowing congressional candidates to appeal to voters without strong partisanship. There is a need to find ways to appeal to the public. Gould said voters like Baca not only play a vital role in who Orange County sends to Washington, but they are also crucial in determining the balance of power in Congress.
“This battle is between independents, who can go either way, and voters who don't have strong party attachments and may simply choose not to vote,” Gould said, adding that Orange County is a “political It should be a place where people's eyes are fixed,” he added. For the future of the next Congress. ”
Orange County's demographics have changed dramatically over the past two decades. In 2000, just over half of the county's population was white. Latinos made up about 31% of the population, and Asians made up 13.5%. Currently, the majority of Orange County residents are people of color. About 38% of the population is white, 34% is Latino and 23% is Asian, according to census data.
Twenty years ago, Republicans held an 18 percentage point advantage over Democrats in Orange County voter registration. Democrats currently enjoy a slight advantage.
Orange County has been a political battleground since the 2018 election, when Democrats swept the area's four legislative seats.
But it wasn't an easy fight for Democrats. Republicans regained two House seats in 2020 with the election of Rep. Michelle Steele of Seal Beach and Rep. Young Kim of Anaheim Hills. They are the first Korean-American women to serve in Congress. Their victory came despite President Biden leading the county by 9 percentage points. The 2022 midterm elections were uneventful, with all Orange County incumbents retaining their seats.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has tracked House and Senate races for decades, ranks Orange County, which includes Steele and Kim's districts, as the most competitive in the nation. It lists four congressional districts.
And how well candidates perform could depend largely on how well they support Orange County's growing number of non-partisan voters.
The UC Irvine poll, detailed in the report “Red Counties, Blue Counties, Orange Counties,” found that the region's modestly partisan Republicans have become a “political anomaly.” It is shown. Unlike strongly partisan Republicans, who are mostly white, moderate partisan Republicans are mostly Asian and Latino voters, demographically similar to Democrats. Almost 50% of them earn more than $100,000 annually.
They also do not share the same cultural agenda as bedrock Republicans. When asked about their views on the Walt Disney Company, more than 40% of those surveyed with moderate attachment to the Republican Party had some degree of positive feelings toward the brand. Among those who lean strongly toward the Republican Party, less than 20% have a moderately favorable view of the entertainment giant.
Disney is embroiled in a high-profile legal and political battle with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a 2024 Republican presidential candidate. The dispute stems from last year, when the company publicly opposed the Parental Rights in Education Act, which critics often cite. As a “don’t call me gay” bill. The bill, sponsored by DeSantis, would ban classroom instruction and discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity in some elementary school grades.
Gould said Disney's questions reveal how conservatively obsessed Republicans view the hotly contested cultural issues that Republican politicians like DeSantis have used to support their support. It is said to be a clue to find out.
“I thought some of the cultural dog whistles might not be motivating in quite the same way,” Gould said.
At the same time, Democrats could use the same cultural issues to intimidate some independents and modest Republicans into splitting their ticket or not voting at all in the race. Yes,” Gould added.
Baca, who lives in Kim's congressional district, said he doesn't know who he'll vote for this November, but he'd rather vote for a candidate rather than fight on issues such as whether transgender individuals should be allowed to serve as members of Congress. said he wants to stick to table issues. military.
“It doesn't have to be a fight. It doesn't have to be a bashing,” he said. “If we had people in Congress who were less bellicose and less bigoted…we would be more successful.”
Data outlined in a University of California, Irvine poll shows that appealing to Asian and Latino voters, especially those without a strong party affiliation, plays a key role in a candidate's success in the general election. It shows that it is possible. Polls show that Asians and Latinos make up the majority of independent voters and voters with loose party affiliation.
The Orange County Republican Party has long focused on fielding Asian American candidates in local elections, dedicating significant resources to winning seats with Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. Over the summer, the Republican Party opened a new community center in Little Saigon, one of the largest Vietnamese communities outside of Vietnam, to help recruit and train volunteers to assist voters.
But they haven't had the same success with Latinos. Orange County Republican Party Executive Director Randall Avila said this will be a focus heading into November.
“We want to kind of replicate what has been successful with Asian Americans and extend that to the Latino community,” he said.
California Sen. Dave Minn (D-Irvine), who is running for the battleground 47th District currently represented by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, said the Democratic Party is “in some ways behind the eight-ball as an organization.” ” Asian American voters.
“I think Asian American and Latino groups often feel left out in the cold here,” Min said.
