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Santa Cruz County voter turnout in the November election was down 10 percentage points from the 2018 midterm election high. An estimated 63.5% voter turnout on November 8 was a disappointing result for those who hoped the nationwide energy around this midterm election would spark voter passion in California and the region.
Santa Cruz County often leads its Central Coast neighbors in voter turnout, a trend that continues despite a drop in 2022. Monterey, Santa Clara, San Mateo, and San Benito counties saw voter turnout drop 13.5-17 percentage points in the 2022 midterm elections compared to his 2018. California as a whole (49.5% voter turnout) was down 15%. San Mateo County came closest to Santa Cruz’s voter turnout at 58.1%.
what happened?
Mindy Romero, founder and director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy, says the biggest predictor of voter turnout is competitiveness at the top of the ticket. This has manifested itself in states with prominent races considered national political barometers: Georgia (Governor and U.S. Senator), Arizona (Governor, Congress and Secretary of State), Pennsylvania (Governor and U.S. Senate) Senator). California is uncompetitive, with incumbent Democrats easily winning the races for frontrunners such as governor, senator, and attorney general.
Of California’s 2022 voter turnout, Romero said, “I don’t think it’s a shock, but it’s disappointing.” It was thought that energy would lead California to another high voter turnout year.”
In Santa Cruz County, these top-of-ticket races were even less competitive, with many separated by margins of 40-50 points. Local council incumbents Jimmy Panetta and Zoe Lofgren were favored in victories of 61 and 44 points respectively over their opponents. State legislative candidates Gail Perelin, Robert Rivas and Dawn Addis each won more than 70% of the local vote for him. Several candidates in local elections, particularly in South County, ran uncontested.
Many national passions in this midterm election Supreme Court Decision Overturning Roe v. WadeIt abolished federal protections for abortion rights and gave state legislatures the power to do so.
In California, the state legislature voted on Proposition 1, a constitutional amendment that does not interfere with reproductive freedom. While the amendment passed easily (with 67% support statewide and 81% in Santa Cruz), the issue was not strong enough to raise voter turnout as it was in other states. bottom. Romero suggested this is because California’s top legislators are already strongly opposed to the Supreme Court’s ruling, and are less concerned about access to abortion.
Santa Cruz County Democratic Speaker Andrew Goldencrantz says high voter turnout in Santa Cruz, the five-county region, and throughout California in 2018 was aided by the nationalization of elections. . That year marked the first major election since Donald Trump was elected president in 2016. That momentum carried over to the next presidential election. Looking at 2022 earnings, Goldenkranz says it’s clear that local election energy has peaked in his 2020.
“This news kept talking about the nation’s enthusiastic voter turnout, but it wasn’t reflected in California,” Goldencrantz said. “I know that some people who would otherwise be so zealous about local crowds have abandoned California en masse and turned their energies to Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. I have.”
Voter turnout mapping
District-level data from the Santa Cruz County Office shows voter turnout for the 2022 midterm elections varied by region across the county.
The highest turnout in the county was around the UC Santa Cruz campus, which varied from 74% to nearly 85%. Two of his UCSC precincts also had the highest number of daily registrations.
South County delivered a story with a turnout unlike any other. Many districts around Watsonville had less than 50% voter turnout, with some having 25%. Goldencrantz is trying to understand exactly why South County didn’t deliver results, but the unopposed city council elections, the confusion over Q and S, the duel voting measures over Watsonville’s growth boundaries, and the district’s 4 was said to be the most likely cause.The county supervisor’s campaign that alienated many voters after the election Sexual assault allegations against candidate Jimmy Dutra second half of the race.
In the city of Santa Cruz, many of the districts had voter turnout in the mid-60s and 70s, with some districts nearing or below 50%.
While typical practice is for leading candidates to put civic initiative in ballots that result in high voter turnout, Goldencrantz says Santa Cruz’s politics are clearly the opposite.
“Here, and you’ve seen this year’s attempt. The idea is to use civic initiative to increase voter turnout,” Goldenkrantz said of the controversial and unsuccessful ballot measure O (Downtown Library). project focused) and N (proposed tax vacant house). While these measures were inevitable, Goldenkranz says they weren’t enough to push voter turnout to where he was in 2018.
