Contrary to what The New York Times' Tuesday newsletter on the presidential election said, the truth is that the polls are not showing a loss of 45 in any key states.
“While President Biden has been closing the gap on President Donald Trump in recent months, Trump still has a slight lead in the presidential race,” the newsletter, written by David Leonhardt, said. “That's perhaps the most succinct way to sum up the race, two days before the candidates' first debate, which will be unlike any other in American history.”
The newsletter's top story comes from Nate Cohn's compilation of New York Times poll results in battleground states, which show presidential candidate No. 46 trailing by one vote in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump leads by at least five percentage points in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
According to the Real Clear Politics 2024 electoral map released a few weeks ago, Trump has 219 of the 270 votes needed to win the White House, while his Democratic rival has 202 votes when swing states are taken into account. Taking into account the latest poll results in battleground states, Trump's electoral votes rise to 312. This remains true despite the conviction of the Republican candidate and other events that have occurred in the past few months. Also, other political websites have 270towin.com and Five Thirty Eight It shows a similar trend.
In 2020, President Biden narrowly won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, while Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan held larger leads on the Democratic side. Four years earlier, President Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but lost Minnesota and Nevada to defeat Hillary Clinton.
All but two polls have shown Trump leading in Arizona since September, with margins ranging from 1 percentage point to as much as 7 percentage points.
Given the NYT's findings, and assuming the race remains close in the coming weeks and months, all votes will be counted by Election Day. California has voted Democrat for the presidency for years, making the Golden State a safe stronghold for President Biden's party. As I've written before, over time, Arizona has become one of the so-called swing states where presidential candidates focus on winning elections. That being said, votes cast in Yuma County will carry more weight on a national level than votes cast in the Imperial Valley. Even votes cast in small towns like Summerton and San Luis will carry more weight than votes cast in any city or unincorporated area of ​​Imperial County, regardless of size, as well as votes cast anywhere in the state.
Consider, too, that in the 25 presidential elections held in Arizona in the past century, only four Democratic candidates have run for president: Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry S. Truman and Bill Clinton in 1996, and President Biden in 2020. But four years ago, Trump lost by just over 10,000 votes — less than a tenth of the population of Yuma, a third of the population of San Luis or Fortuna Hills, or the population of Somerton.
Essentially, this is why presidential candidates, both Democrat and Republican, pay little to no attention to California, barely visiting the state and spending huge amounts of donor money here, while running very different campaigns in Arizona and other battleground states.
On a more positive note, for someone running for president as a third party or independent candidate, the votes of Arizona, California or other places could be just as valuable given the possibility of turning 47 years old.
Want to have some political fun while creating your own Electoral College map? https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/cyom/electoral-college.
Adelante Valle Editor Arturo Bojórquez can be contacted at abojorquez@ivpressonline.com or (760) 335-4646.
