Washington –

Donald Trump finally got the wild convention celebration he missed in 2016 and 2020 on Thursday. He was hailed as a “true American hero” by Hulk Hogan, serenaded by Lee Greenwood and cheered by Republicans packed into the arena convinced victory was near.

He had a moment of triumph. 92 minute winding The speech set a modern record for length. Efforts to reconstruct oneself as a unified person It has since been morphed into a slightly softer version of his standard rally performance.

He accused Democrats of trying to “destroy” the country, vowed to launch “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country,” and claimed that if re-elected he could end inflation, establish world peace and cure cancer.

But for all its glamour, the night is unlikely to have much of a lasting impact on the campaign: Party conventions usually only have an impact by introducing the candidates to the general public, and Trump is now a man who needs no introduction.

The more politically significant events were taking place about 900 miles to the east in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, where the president Biden was pondering his own political destiny. Ash Recovered from COVID-19.

On the convention floor, smiling delegates waved signs that read “Fire Joe Biden.” Nancy Pelosi may have been doing the job for them.

Decision time for Biden

Biden is known for taking his time to make decisions. For example, in 2015, After many postponements, I chose not to do it. Opposition to Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

But pressure was mounting on him to withdraw from the race. A poor performance at last month's debateAs Republicans celebrated in Milwaukee, the protests intensified by the hour.

largely Two-thirds of Democrats wanted him gone.The new poll, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago, was released Wednesday by The Associated Press.

The former House speaker and her closest allies, Reps. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank and Jamie Raskin of Maryland, played leading roles as Democrats tried to persuade Biden to concede.

On Wednesday, Schiff released a public statement. He urged Biden to “pass the baton.” On Thursday, Raskin issued a letter making similar claims.

Unofficially, Pelosi meets with Biden She then presented polling data showing he could not win, but the conversation quickly became public and was confirmed by her spokesman.

By the time Trump spoke, leading Democrats were telling reporters they expected Biden to drop out of the race as early as the weekend.

White House and campaign officials continued to deny that such a move was being planned.

If Biden decides not to run, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the overwhelming favorite to become the Democratic nominee, but it is unclear whether that would be by acclamation or after some sort of competitive vote.

Harris will face challenges as a candidate

If that happens, the vice president will start from a disadvantage, as the same polls that show Biden losing to Trump also point to her behind.

a CBS News PollFor example, a poll released Thursday showed Trump leading Biden 52% to 47%, while Harris was trailing 51% to 48%.

But unlike the president, Harris, 59, offers Democrats the possibility of moving forward without being shackled by public anxieties about aging and cognitive decline.

The most immediate problem facing Harris will be logistical.

First, she needs to assemble a campaign team and is unlikely to want to rely on a handful of top advisers who have backed Biden for years, maybe decades.

Staffing has been an issue for Harris in the past. Infighting and lack of clear decision-making It significantly hindered her campaign for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

The campaign will need to reinvigorate the Democratic fundraising machinery, which has been severely sluggish in the weeks since the debate, and resolve legal issues surrounding the transfer of existing Biden campaign funds.

And Democratic planners have just a few weeks to restructure their convention, scheduled to begin Aug. 19, to introduce candidates who would benefit from being introduced to voters.

She may have some advantages too.

The Republican line of attack against Harris is already clear.

If she becomes the nominee, they will try to portray her as a radical leftist, California liberal out of touch with ordinary Americans, and they will try to hold her responsible for the administration's border policy, one of the Democratic Party's greatest political weaknesses.

In the 2020 election campaign, Harris faced the exact opposite political challenge. He struggled to convince primary voters that he was progressive enough. In the end, he was sandwiched between Biden, who is popular with moderate Democrats, and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who are more popular on the party's left wing.

As the Democratic candidate, Harris will have several early, high-profile opportunities to convince moderate voters that she is acceptable to them.

That will begin with her selection of a running mate, with speculation rife that several Democratic governors, including Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, could be candidates.

The party convention comes next, where Democrats could highlight Harris' record as a prosecutor if they wish.

In the extraordinary circumstances of the 2020 primary elections, George Floyd's murder by Minneapolis policeHarris Experience as a District Attorney It counts as a liability, at least to Democratic activists.

But law enforcement experience is generally an advantage for politicians, and as Republicans try to stoke voters' fears about crime, highlighting Harris' record there would be a natural move.

Significant policy room

The Republican convention emphasized party unity behind Trump but laid out relatively few policy issues, leaving significant room for Democrats to exploit.

Convention speakers addressed culture war staples. Repeated references to barring transgender women from girls' sports, for example, always drew applause. But I'm pretty much aligned with the Republican Party on that issue.But it's not a top priority for most voters and hasn't helped Republican candidates outside of reliably conservative districts.

In his speech, Trump said: He was heavily involved in immigration issues.This issue, more than anything else, is the one that has defined his political career.

So far, Trump has not paid a political price for advocating unprecedented mass roundups in the country without legal authorization, but Democrats are confident that voters will reject the idea once they know more about it.

The chaos at the border, along with inflation, is one of the biggest liabilities facing Democratic candidates, but Democrats can rightly argue that both issues are improving.

The number of Illegal border crossings have dropped dramatically Biden will be the new president in May. Tougher policies towards refugeesand the Inflation has fallen sufficiently The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates in September.

What's more, the Republican rally often seemed strangely disconnected from some of the biggest issues of the day: Trump not only never mentioned abortion in his speech, but avoided the topic altogether.

Harris has already emerged as one of the party's leading voices on reproductive rights, and if she becomes the nominee, reproductive rights would figure prominently in her campaign.

Republicans also said little about climate change beyond repeatedly promising to roll back the Biden administration's efforts to transition America to electric vehicles.

Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, portrayed it as an effort to save the auto industry from ruin. But Unemployment rate near record lowThat claim may be hard to substantiate, as manufacturing booms and auto companies race to bring new electric vehicles to market.

Nostalgia for an America of the past played a major role in Trump's rise to power, but its appeal has proven limited: He has never won a majority of the vote.

Democrats' chances of victory depend on persuading voters that their policies are right for the future of America — something that will be much easier to do if the sitting president is no longer the Democratic nominee.

What else to read

This week's poll: Among young workers in the U.S. who did not graduate from college, Men and women do very different kinds of work.

LA Times Feature: Can a game of chess and toilet paper change prison culture? Inside the San Quentin experiment.

Great Saturday reads: The New Yorker magazine Trump's plan for 2025.

—
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.