CNN political director David Chalian on Wednesday analyzed Vice President Kamala Harris's significant lead over President Joe Biden against Republican nominee Donald Trump.
New CNN vote The poll concluded there was “no clear leader” between Trump and Harris, with the former president leading Harris 49% to 46%, but holding a 6-point lead over Biden in April and June. Chalian said Harris was “gaining ground” with key voter groups.
The latest polls show Trump has a slight lead among independents, 46% to 43%, while the former president has a roughly 10-point lead over Biden among independents.
“Our polling shows that Biden has been losing independents to Trump by roughly 10 points over the past few months. Now, Harris is losing them by three points, but remember that Biden won the 2020 election by 13 points with independents,” Chalian said.
Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday amid growing calls from Democrats to field another candidate to challenge Trump. He endorsed Harris minutes after announcing his withdrawal from the race, and she has secured overwhelming support within the Democratic coalition.
Chalian also noted that Harris has better support among several age groups compared to Biden, including 18-34 year olds, blacks, Hispanics and women. Trump holds a seven-point lead over Biden in the 18-34 age group, while Harris currently leads the Republican candidate by four points, according to the CNN poll. (Related article: Poll: Trump leads in states Republicans haven't won in 20 years)
The poll found that Trump's lead over Biden among Hispanic voters has shrunk from 9 points to 2 points since Harris became the presumptive nominee. Harris also holds a 5-point lead over Biden among women voters, 50% to 45%, though Trump and Biden were tied among women, 46% to 46% in April and June.
“I want to point out again that Donald Trump has a numerical lead among Hispanic voters, within the margin of error, and Hispanics are a key group that Biden won in a landslide victory in 2020, so Democrats still have work to do,” Chalian said. “And among women voters, they were tied when Biden was running, but you're seeing Harris widen her lead.”
CNN political editor breaks down how Harris is polling against Trump, days after campaign kicks off pic.twitter.com/ZeYEMfG0Rg
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 24, 2024
Chalian also highlighted that Democratic voters are largely divided on whether Harris should continue Biden's policies or steer the country in a new direction.
“When the poll results came back, one of the numbers that jumped out at me was Dana. [Bash]”This is a survey of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Do you want the next Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, to continue Biden's policies or take the United States in a new direction? 53% said they want Biden's policies to continue. 47% said they want a new direction. It's about evenly split among Democrats who want a new direction. That's very interesting, and I think it will be interesting to see Kamala Harris campaign on that,” Chalian said.
The poll also found that non-Democratic voters support their party's candidate against Trump if Harris is the nominee: 50% of voters would vote for Harris rather than against Trump, while 63% of voters said they would vote against the former president if Biden was the nominee.
“Look how much things have changed in a matter of days. With Harris, the vote is now split evenly: 50% say they would vote for Harris and 50% say they would vote against Trump. Think about how it was when Biden was the nominee,” Chalian continued. “Two-thirds of Harris' votes were against Trump and only one-third, 37%, were in favor. Harris has changed that equation.”
The poll found that nearly three-quarters of Trump supporters, 74%, are voting in support of the Republican candidate rather than against Harris.
The poll was conducted July 22-23 among 1,631 registered voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. It surveyed the same voters who participated in polls released in April or June.
A Morning Consult poll conducted Friday showed Trump leading Biden 46% to 42% in the days following the July 13 assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. CNN's John King pointed to election data on Thursday that showed Trump maintaining significant support over Biden in key battleground states such as Arizona and Virginia.
As an independent, nonpartisan news service, all content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation is available free of charge to any legitimate news publisher with a large readership. All republished articles must include our logo, reporter byline, and affiliation with the DCNF. If you have any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us at licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
