Washington —

Kamala Harris as Vice President Recoveries in key battleground states This week, observers were able to watch in real time as she honed her campaign platform, which differed significantly in both style and content from the one Biden had planned.

Harris still has some big strategic decisions to make, but so far her approach is working better than most Democrats thought it would. Biden withdraws from the race Just three weeks ago, I was feeling the pressure.

Harris inherited a race that polls suggest Biden is likely to decisively lose. She is currently running former President Trump. Most national polls have Republicans leading the way, and recent polls in key battleground states have them at least tied with the Republicans. Arizona To Pennsylvania.

A growing number of voters believe Harris can win, a measure that has proven more predictive in the past than head-to-head polls.

Going back to October of last year, voters across the country had consistently predicted that Trump would win. A weekly poll conducted by YouGov for The Economist. This week, for the first time, Democrats had a slight lead, with 40% believing Harris would win and 38% believing Trump would win.

Harris' image is favorable

Lakshya Jain, a political analyst at the website Split Ticket, said Ms Harris' popularity had grown to unexpected levels.

Jain noted that “Harris was not popular” before Biden dropped out of the race, adding that she was surprised at how quickly and dramatically voters' opinions of the vice president had shifted.

Split Ticket commissioned two polls. The surveys were conducted among voters in three northern battleground states – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – one was conducted from July 18 to 23 (when Biden dropped out of the race) and the other from July 29 to August 2.

The poll showed an 8 percentage point swing, from a 7-point lead for Trump in the head-to-head matchup to a nominal 1-point lead for Harris.

But what Jain noted most was the improvement in voters' views of Harris, who in the last poll had a 12-point advantage in favorability ratings, with 42% of respondents viewing her favorably and 54% viewing her unfavorably.

In the latter poll, Harris's approval rating improved to 48% positive and 49% negative — nothing to brag about, but a big improvement for her.

This is significantly better than Trump's rating in the survey, which was 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

Other polls nationwide and in battleground states showed similar changes.

Permanent change or a temporary honeymoon?

The two big questions now are whether these changes represent a permanent shift in the race or just a honeymoon, and whether Harris will feel the need to take further steps to shore up her position against Republican attacks.

Some of the changes in the race may be permanent simply because of who Harris is.

When Nikki Haley lost to Trump in the New Hampshire Republican primary in February, The former South Carolina governor predicted “The first party to retire an 80-year-old candidate will be the party that wins this election,” she said. And she may have been right.

In Wisconsin, A Marquette University poll released this week The survey found that 76% of voters believe Biden, 81, is too old to be president, and 59% said the same about Trump, 78. Just 12% thought Harris, 59, was too old.

The poll, conducted July 24-August 1, showed the race in Wisconsin was close: Trump won by just one point among head-to-head voters, 50% to 49%, but when third-party candidates were included, Harris won by 45% to 43%. In contrast, 47% of respondents said they would have voted for Trump if Biden had still run, and 42% said they would not.

A noticeable shift in tone and content

Beyond the age difference between Biden and Harris, Democratic voters are intrigued by Harris' change in tone.

Before Biden dropped out of the race, his campaign had taken on an air of duty and struggle: “We've got to get this job done,” the president said in a speech. July 11 press conference To make the case for staying in the race.

By contrast, Ms. Harris's enthusiasm for the election has become a theme of her campaign: She and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, call themselves “Happy Warriors,” a Democratic nickname that dates back at least a century. Franklin D. Roosevelt's speech at the 1924 Party Convention.

Voter response can be gauged by the large crowds at rallies for Ms. Harris and Mr. Walz and by polls: In Wisconsin, for example, the share of Democrats saying they were very enthusiastic about voting jumped to 62% from 40% in May, narrowing the gap with enthusiasm among Republicans.

In addition to a shift in style and sentiment, Harris is presenting a completely different electoral argument than Biden.

Biden has framed his rematch with Trump in a commonly used phrase: a “battle for the soul of America,” and has frequently said Trump poses a threat to “the very foundation of our republic.”

Harris touched on these themes at campaign rallies, reminding audiences: Trump said he would act like a “dictator” to close the border and expand oil drilling. But then her speech quickly changes direction.

“This campaign is not just about running against Donald Trump. It's about two very different visions … one focused on the future, one focused on the past,” she reiterated at a rally this week.

Look ahead or look behind

It's a powerful theme in American politics, with candidates as diverse as John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama thriving on optimistic hopes for the future.

The future versus past framing could be particularly effective with Trump, who seems obsessed with retrialing the 2020 election and other grievances.

Ms. Harris has used that contrast to great effect: Her slogan, “We won't back down,” has become one of the most reliably applauded phrases at Democratic rallies.

Harris' speeches and campaign ads have focused not on the abstract concept of “the soul of the nation” but on a series of concrete issues relevant to everyday life, such as lowering rent and drug prices, defending the Affordable Care Act and protecting abortion rights.

The focus on the health care law is particularly noteworthy because the law, popularly known as Obamacare, has completely transformed itself from a major burden for Democrats in the early days into a cornerstone of their campaign today.

Meanwhile, her approach to inflation provides one of the biggest contrasts with Biden.

The president is his The government's economic performance; Harris walks past it with ease.

“By many measures, our economy is strong, but the prices of everyday items like food remain too high. You and I know that,” she said at the rally. “If I were president, fighting to lower prices would be my first priority on day one.”

She combines it with a vow to fight price gouging by big corporations, a stance that is economically dubious (there is little evidence that price gouging is the main cause of inflation) but politically popular.

Countering Republican attacks

Of course, Republicans aren't going to let Harris get away with criticizing her administration's record. Whenever Republican vice presidential nominee, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, talks about the current White House, he always refers to the “Harris administration,” writing off Biden entirely.

The attacks have focused on claims that Ms Harris is a “dangerous California extremist” after she chose Mr Walz as her running mate. Republicans added him to that category..

So far, these attacks have not gained much traction, but Republicans are expected to step up their attacks in the coming weeks.

That means Harris still has some big strategic decisions to make, particularly about which aspects of her prosecutorial background to emphasize.

That part of her record has been politically tricky given the Democratic Party's left wing's skepticism of law enforcement, but her record as a crime-fighting activist has proven an asset in American politicians for decades, especially liberals under attack from conservatives.

At previous rallies, Harris has focused on her experience going after big banks and prosecuting white-collar fraud. New ads target Latino votersUpon her release on Thursday, she proclaimed, “As a prosecutor, she protected us from violent criminals.”

How much to emphasize this theme to a wider audience will be one of the key decisions Harris must make before the Democratic National Convention, just over a week away.

Other reading:

This week's poll: Supreme Court's Approval Remains at All-Time Low.

Recommended articles this week: Ezra Klein is Why Tim Waltz was the right choice.

LA Times Feature: What are the chances of Democrats winning the House of Representatives? Whether they can unseat Rep. Mike Garcia.

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