Rep. Ruben Gallego announced on monday He will run for U.S. Senate and is expected to begin a long and costly campaign cycle in 2024.

Important reasons: With incumbent Senator Kirsten Cinema leave the Democratic Party She has remained tight-lipped about whether she will seek re-election, with both Democrats and Republicans shooting to regain seats.

• at cinema Winner in 2018she was the first Democrat from Arizona to be elected to the Senate in 30 years.

What they say: “If you are more likely to meet powerful people than helpless people, you are doing this job wrong,” Gallego said in his book. Campaign announcement — a not-so-subtle bargain in cinema. “I’m sorry the politicians let you down. But I’m going to change that.”

• Cinema’s campaign did not respond to Axios’ request for comment.

State of play: Gallego was the first to run and is presumed to be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

• Tony Kani, a Democratic political consultant, told Axios Phoenix the support Gallego received from party leaders within hours of his announcement and the amount of campaign funding he may raise in the coming days. , said it was probably enough to keep other Democrats who were serious about the lack of funds. race.

Opposite side: Republican districts will almost certainly be crowded. Here are some of the names circulating in Republican circles.

Reality check: Without knowing who the Republican nominee will be, or whether Cinema will run, it’s difficult to predict Gallego’s chances.

paul benz A Republican at political consulting firm HighGround said the Senate election should be a “slam dunk” for them if Republicans nominate less extreme candidates like Lake and Masters.

• “This is a chance for Republicans to start winning again and keep the relationship going. We’ll see if they accept it,” Benz added.

Meanwhile, cinema has little chance of winning, according to Republican and Democratic experts.

• Benz noted that his calculations would have required 25% Republicans, 25% Democrats, and 60% independents.

Yes, but: That doesn’t mean she doesn’t run anyway.

• It remains unclear who the cinema will help or hurt by staying, Kani said. He said it’s hard to gauge her influence because it’s uncertain whether she’ll receive the Republican nomination.