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Control of the AZ Legislature could come down to four districts

Political experts say both sides must appeal to the same demographic: apolitical voters.

PHOENIX — For decades, Republicans have controlled the Arizona Legislature, including the Senate and House.

Political experts say that could change in November as Democrats go on the offensive to win four key battleground districts in Maricopa County.

Those districts are LD2, LD4, LD9, and LD13.

  • LD2 is located northeast of Interstate 17 and Loop 101 in north Phoenix.
  • LD4 is in Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, up to Loop 101 north.
  • LD9 is located on a portion of the mesa south of Loop 202 Highway.
  • LD13 is in Chandler and parts of western Gilbert.

“Three of these seats are held by Republicans and one is held by Democrats, which puts Republicans on the defensive a little bit with one opportunity to attack,” Republican strategist Brian Sejczyk said of the Senate seats in those districts.

On the House side, things are even more divided, with Democrats trying to flip Republican seats and vice versa in several races in each of those four battleground districts.

Sejczyk said Democrats are significantly outspending Republicans in state House and Senate races, and some of that money is coming from “out-of-state interests,” including California special interests.

“This is the first time Democrats have sought complete control of the state Legislature and the Governor's Office in nearly 50 years, since Governor Goddard in 1964. Katie Hobbs appears committed to achieving a Democratic state legislature,” Sejczyk said.

Political experts say the political tides have shifted over time, with Republicans now holding a one-seat advantage in both houses of Congress.

“Democrats used to be called the Pizza Caucus because you could feed the entire caucus with just one pizza,” said pundit Chuck Coughlin.

Coughlin said the caucus has expanded significantly over time, raising hopes that it will be able to secure a majority in at least one chamber.

A key for both parties will be to appeal to independent and swing voters, many of whom say they want policy decisions based on solutions rather than the divisive rhetoric of the two parties.

“You're seeing people who were once Democrats or former Republicans saying, 'Enough is enough. I don't need this anymore. So I'm going to move to the other party platform or a non-partisan platform,' which tends to be more problem-focused, more solution-oriented and less partisan,” Coughlin said.

Candidate efforts will no doubt play a role, too, as low-key activism in these districts can sway undecided voters.

“They don't want fingers pointed at them or blame placed on them. They want to hear what you're going to do to help them,” Coughlin said.

For undecided voters, it often comes down to what issues matter most to them at the time they fill out their ballot — a reality that could determine which party controls power in Arizona in 2024 and beyond.

“Republicans need to remind people of the issues that really matter, the issues that affect their daily lives. And that's inflation. Every time you go to the supermarket and buy groceries for your family, prices are going up. And immigration at the border,” Sejczyk said. “If Republicans can make the case that these are important issues to voters at the presidential level, at the federal level, at the state level, it's going to be a good night for Republicans. If voters, the swing vote, are showing up to the polls and abortion is a top priority, it's going to be a good night for Democrats here in Arizona.”

To see who's running in your district, here.

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