Pollster Nate Silver said in a New York Times op-ed on Wednesday that he has a “gut feeling” that former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Trump currently holds a narrow lead over Harris in all seven battleground states. According to Convert to average value of RealClear Polling. silver I wrote He noted that the tight competition in these key states indicates that “50-50 is the only responsible prediction” for the race’s outcome, which is about the same as his own model’s predictions. . (Related article: Former Clinton pollster says Harris’ “fraud” is “bigger problem” she faces in election)
“Yet, when I break this unsatisfying news, the question always comes: ‘Well, Nate, what’s your gut feeling?'” Silver wrote. “Okay, I’ll tell you. My gut says it’s Donald Trump. And my guess is that’s true for a lot of anxious Democrats as well.”
“But I don’t think we should put any value on anyone’s guts, including mine. Rather, we should accept the fact that a 50-50 prediction actually means 50-50.” added. “And we should be open to the possibility that those predictions are wrong, and that could apply equally well in the direction of Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris.”
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Renowned pollster Kamala Harris says she is “mediocre at best” and “will probably lose” to Trump pic.twitter.com/Fink3KBGpI
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 11, 2024
Silver described the vice president as “mediocre at best” in July, just before President Joe Biden resigned and endorsed Harris, ultimately leading her to replace him as the top Democrat. Trump said he would likely defeat her if she did. But he also said he believed Harris would be a better candidate than Biden.
“She is capable of actually making a case against Mr. Trump. She is not lying to the American people about her fitness for office,” he said. “And you know what? She’ll probably lose, but Biden will probably lose too. What’s a world where Harris doesn’t win and Biden wins? I mean, a world where Biden wins. It’s like a world where the polls are too far apart to know anything to begin with, and a world where Trump goes to jail or something, and every Democrat is just as half-assed. A competent Democrat can win under those conditions. You’ll probably only get a halfway competent option.”
Journalist Mark Halperin said Tuesday that Trump will be elected president on Nov. 5 “if the current flow of early voting continues.”
“Make no mistake about it, if these numbers hold true in states where we have even a partial understanding of what the data looks like, we’ll know on Election Day that Donald Trump will be president,” he said. Ta.
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