PHOENIX — Everyone wants their work reaffirmed.
Larry Moore and Benny White of The Audit Guys analyzed the 2022 election using voting records, a digital copy of all 1.5 million votes cast in November.
Moore is the former CEO of ClearBallot, an election audit firm.
He told ABC15 that a major reason for the Republican Party’s loss in last November’s high-profile election was that many traditional voters were dissatisfied.
“People who didn’t vote for the candidate at the top of the ballot, but who voted against their own party. We called them dissatisfied voters,” Moore said. I was.
Audit Guys’ findings on disgruntled voters go a long way in explaining the final results.
Between 14 and 16 partisan elections were held in most areas of Maricopa County.
White and Moore defined “disgruntled voters” as those who voted for one party in the majority of these contests but voted for the opposite party or left blank in high-profile elections. identified.
Republican candidate for secretary of state, Mark Finkem, was the most disgruntled of the 73,099 voters in Maricopa County, who supported the Republican Party in most elections, and did not vote for him.
Kari Lake lost the support of 39,937 voters.
Attorney General candidate Abraham Hamadeh saw a similar drop of 40,996.
In Lake’s case, the number of disgruntled Republicans ended up exceeding Katie Hobbs’ margin of victory by 168%.
Democratic candidates also experienced disgruntled voters, but to a lesser extent.
The net margin of dissatisfied voters in the Secretary of State race was 60,129 votes in favor of Adrian Fontes.
Audit Guys found that the net profit margins of disgruntled voters were what determined Hobbes and Mays’ wins.
Treasury secretary candidate Kimberly Yee was the only statewide Republican whose net profit margins for disaffected voters favored her.
Benny White found an interesting pattern among disgruntled Republican voters.
“They’re in the economically rich area of Maricopa County north of Scottsdale in the county, out in the Sun City area, and out in the East Valley area,” he said.
The Audit Guys didn’t just see disgruntled voters. They also approached the election from another angle. total.
“When it comes to auditing elections, a lot of people think of it as a statistical problem,” Moore said. “Take a random sample and compare it to a sum somewhere else. But we thought of it as a huge accounting problem.”
The two numbers Moore and White looked at were the number of voters who checked in to vote by either submitting early ballots or voting on Election Day, and the final number of votes recorded on the voting record. .
They found the number of checked-in voters in Maricopa County was 1,563,021 compared to the 1,562,758 votes tallied, a difference of 263.
White told ABC15 that the difference is because 2,649 voters included a protected address in their check-in number.
A private voter’s voting history is not a public record, so there is no way to know how many voters have voted.
Questions always arise about ballots that have been reviewed or “ruled” by county staff.
Audit Guys found that 18,382 votes were awarded in the governor’s election.
A majority of 11,766 were left blank by voters. Additionally, he found that 4,434 ballots contained “unqualified writing.” Voters could write in their own names or pop figures in his culture like Mickey Mouse.
The Attorney General contest ended with a margin of 280 votes between the two candidates, but 50,246 voters chose to leave the contest blank.
Democrat Chris Mays received 221 votes in the adjudicated ballot.