Hello, hallelujah. There are zero days left until the election, and for better or worse, we have come this far. Congratulations, America!

But to quote Yogi Berra’s Lenny Kravitz: Baby, it’s not over yet to it’s over. A winner could be decided by Tuesday night. But you probably won’t.

If Kamala Harris is in the lead, one thing we’ll get is that Donald Trump’s 2024 voter fraud tantrum will be like a hungry toddler at the grocery store. That’s it.

Yes, everyone, we’re back. It’s an election interference campaign brought on by the same people who lied about voter fraud in 2016 and 2020, but it’s bigger, worse, and more ferocious.

What’s the best-case scenario for the next few days? Harris wins in an uncontroversial landslide (likely with female voters after all), and by some miracle Democrats take control of the House and retain the Senate. did. It’s highly possible, but not impossible. Democracy can breathe again.

Worst case scenario? Let’s dive in.

Do you remember “The Big Lie”?

Ever since Joe Biden defeated Trump (actually even before that), MAGA has been convinced that the Democrats are cheating on the vote — of course Trump is so great and popular that he lost. That’s because it’s unthinkable. And because he says it a lot.

It’s old news, but it boils down to this:

In 2020, President Trump claimed the entire election was a “big lie.” At the time, false and self-serving conspiracy theories centered around Dominion and Smartmatic voting machines. These companies include Fox News (which settled with Dominion for just under $800 million), Trump lawyer Sidney Powell, Trump lawyer-like Rudy Giuliani, and that guy who sells pillows. A prominent election denier sued Bejesus.

Many of these cases are still pending, but they all taught important lessons to the election interference campaign. That means you can’t lie about people who have enough money to sue.

So in recent years, voter fraud fraudsters have focused on a different lie. The idea is that illegal immigrants (brought to this country by Democrats) are voting illegally. While that is obviously false, it has become gospel-like truth for the Trump campaign.

But this has the dual appeal of demonizing brown and black people, another key pillar of Trump’s policy, and targeting groups less likely to fight back.

The next “big lie”

So come 2024, if Trump loses, we will be inundated with fake videos, first-hand accounts, and other plausible evidence of illegal immigrant votes that reversed the election results. Trump himself has been ranting in recent days, saying that fraud has already occurred and that his campaign has already taken legal action, including filing lawsuits in multiple states.

“We’re already seeing it: an avalanche of disinformation,” said Norman Eisen, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution who served as special counsel for the House Judiciary Committee during Trump’s impeachment. Ta. He is currently affiliated with the Democracy Defenders PAC, a group of Republican and Democratic lawyers planning to fight President Trump’s election interference.

Eisen said as part of a news conference last week that more than 200 lawsuits alleging election fraud have already been filed in courts across the country. The good news?

“They keep losing,” he said, adding that he has had about 125 “failures” so far. But losing in court is different from losing in the court of public opinion. In the court of public opinion, decent people are left trying to explain that non-citizen Haitians are not voting illegally while munching on poodle kebabs and assaulting their neighbors.

memorable date

Knowing where conspiracy theories come from is the best tool for understanding the difference between legitimate voting concerns (which always exist to some degree) and outright anti-democratic dangerous driving like President Trump’s. .

The next important date we should pay attention to is December 11th. On that day, each state must appoint its electors (the people who actually vote for president in the Electoral College), and the state executive (usually the governor) certifies the electors.

These electors will then meet on December 17th and, thanks to a law passed in 2022, must vote for the candidate who won the popular vote in the state, thus eliminating fraudulent electors. be done.

Their election certificates must be received by the Senate and the National Archives by Dec. 25. Merry Christmas.

From there, a new Congress will be sworn in on Jan. 3, then return on Jan. 6, where Congress will hold a joint session to count the electors and hope they won’t be forced to flee from the mob again. .

All of this means that if Trump loses, we can expect constant allegations of voter fraud from now until the first week of the new year.

Perhaps it will start with people disrupting the vote counting. MAGA has been “training” poll watchers for several months. These people recognize that fraud exists in every shadow and are called to action.

In Shasta County, already a hotbed of far-right nonsense, these watchdogs are videotaping, tailing, and harassing county employees too much. 10 out of 21 election office employees quit.according to CalMatters.

The next weakness in our system lies in the board’s certification of the vote count. At this time, local election officials stamp of approval In the results.

Here’s the tricky part. MAGA has taken over election boards in many counties. That means there will likely be some places where local authorities will refuse to certify the count. Eisen said there are more than 50 counties across the country where something like this could happen, and the strategy will be this year’s “big game.”

If the counties do not certify, it would be difficult for the state to certify, potentially preventing the state from submitting its electoral college results to Congress on time and causing chaos. That means more lawsuits and more distrust of the system as even well-meaning governors and secretaries of state are sucked into the machine of intrigue.

But whatever happens, don’t expect it to end, even if a new president sits behind the desk of determination.

Ty Cobb, a former White House lawyer for President Trump and now a member of the Democracy Advocacy Group, said disruption is the ultimate goal for election saboteurs and calls for fundamental attacks on the processes and government on which democracy depends. He said it was eroding trust. Accept the idea that an authoritarian leader will restore order, now or in the future.

“It was done to make people lose confidence,” he said. “It was done to delegitimize the election.”

What else to read:

Must read: Vote-counting rules in battleground states become complicated when a winner is likely to be determined.
Voter lottery: Elon Musk’s lawyer defends $1 million daily payments to voters
LA Times Feature: President Trump’s culture of retaliation permeates American life

stay golden,
Anita Chhabria

PS If Harris wins, it will be largely because women voters voted for her. Enthusiasm for the power of women has reached new heights in recent days (a poll in a reliably red Iowa state shows an unexpectedly sharply skewed support among women) You’ve probably heard of state polls). Last week, singer Cardi B endorsed Harris at a rally in Wisconsin, which apparently angered Elon Musk. Go figure. They fought on social media, so I’ll give this round to Mr. B.

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