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Why California’s Latino voters are shifting toward Trump

Thirty years ago this fall, California’s Latino voters rallied into a multigenerational ethnic voting bloc for the first time in response to a tough citizen-led effort targeting immigrants who entered the state illegally. Proposition 187 called for denying most state taxpayer services to illegal immigrants. Although ultimately ruled unconstitutional, the proposal galvanized generations of Latino voters and politicians, connected Latino voters to the immigrant experience, and responded to decades of It has long shaped state politics.

After 30 years, many things may change. The emergence of a new generation of voters, combined with changing ideas about identity and security, is upending notions of what motivates Latino voters.

The reaction to Proposition 187 has established certain perceptions, both true and false, about the nation’s fastest-growing group of voters. Chief among the misconceptions was the belief that immigration has always been the primary lens through which Latinos view the world.

So what’s different today? So do Latino voters themselves. They are rapidly becoming less of a cohesive ethnic constituency of any kind and more defined as an economically populist electorate.

Times columnist Gustavo Arellano says: pointed out“23% of Latinos and 63% of whites voted for Prop. 187, but a UC Berkeley Institute of Government poll co-sponsored by the Times this year found that 63% of California’s Latinos are undocumented immigrants. I found out that they consider it a “burden.” compared to 79% of whites. ” In other words, California’s Latino voters are now as likely to view illegal immigration as a burden as the state’s white voters were in 1994.

another pollA poll conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy and Telemundo a few weeks before the election found that 70% of California Latinos believe illegal immigration is a somewhat or very serious problem. It turns out.

The salience of Proposition 187 for Latinos is finally waning. Economic populism and the assimilation of young U.S.-born Latino voters dwarf the concerns of naturalized immigrant voters. Almost one-third of Latinos eligible to vote Under 30 years oldAccording to the Pew Research Center, this means they weren’t even alive when Proposition 187 was passed. And that doesn’t include many voters who are over 30 but still too young to have formative political memories of that campaign.

However, old memories are difficult for politicians to erase. To this day, even though Latino voters are overwhelmingly U.S.-born and resent their failure to address their economic woes, including exploding living costs and rising prices, many Democrats To this day, it continues to focus relentlessly on issues specific to the concerns of undocumented immigrants. Decreased quality of life. While all reliable polling of California’s Latino voters over the past 30 years has shown that the economy is their top priority, policymakers have been unable to address the most basic issues facing Latinos. It has not yet proposed a comprehensive agenda specifically focused on economic issues.

Moreover, despite the rapid increase in Latino representation at all levels of government, there are surprising indications that life in California has become considerably more difficult for working-class Latinos since the mid-1990s. There is a power index.

The state’s dire housing crisis impacts Latinos more than any other group. latino american Struggling to get a degree in science and technology Even though the high-tech industry is a homegrown industry that provides most of the state’s livable wages, it is paid for by public university scholarships. Latino students enrolled in California community colleges are highly likely You will be placed in a remedial course. More Latinx more likely to do gig work and less likely to join a union. and almost 60% The number of Latino children in the state who are eligible for Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid program, is shameful evidence of deep-rooted poverty in the Union’s wealthiest state.

A survey I conducted with David Binder Research after the November election found that an astounding 90% of the state’s Latinos said their concerns about homelessness, immigration, crime, and even employment were their top priority. It was found that “the price we pay for everything” is cited as a major issue. Affordability is a top concern for the Latino middle class.

California’s Latinos essentially want the equivalent of the Marshall Plan to build an economy for the state’s largest ethnic group, but California’s political bias against Latinos is illegal continues unabated. This year, a bill to provide down payment assistance for undocumented immigrants reached the governor’s desk and was filed quickly and responsibly. exercised the right of veto. And in Santa Ana, home to California’s largest Latino population, residents was firmly refused A voting law that gives illegal aliens the right to vote in local elections.

On the other hand, low voter participation and civic participation among Latinos in the United States is also a problem. Consequences of persistent povertylack of home ownership, and lower income and education levels. Addressing the economic challenges facing Latino communities may be the best way to increase their participation in and support for democracy.

California’s Latino voters have moved further to the right this year than in any election since 1994, when illegal immigration was also on the minds of many voters. This follows a shift to the right in the 2022 midterm elections. We may be seeing early signs that Latinos will vote Republican rather than Democrat, citing a stagnant economic outlook and not voting. We are definitely seeing that trend nationally, and California may follow suit.

Latinos are the fastest growing segment of the working class, and the issues that drove their older generations do not drive younger voters today. But their economic challenges may generate as much enthusiasm as advocacy for undocumented immigrants in previous generations.

The days of Proposition 187 are over. The campaign for this initiative left an ugly stain on our state’s history, but it no longer defines our politics today. We can and must protect and care for our country’s illegal aliens. That is a lesson we must never forget. But the ballots cast and the messages sent by Latino voters themselves show they are fed up with policymakers who insist on undocumented immigrants at the expense of working and middle-class Americans. .

Mike Madrid is a political consultant and author of The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Majority Is Changing Democracy.

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