Iran has been largely unchecked by the Biden administration in its goal of becoming a nuclear power, posing a major foreign policy challenge to President-elect Donald Trump with few easy solutions.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announces that Iran can produce a 60% enriched nuclear weapon in just one week with its current stockpile. said In the November newsletter. The next president will need to quickly take office and choose to renegotiate the deal, intervene militarily, or re-tighten previously ineffective sanctions that would halt or slow Iran’s progress.

Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, told DCNF, “The United States needs another Middle East war, like a hole in the head.” “While escalation is possible from all angles, Mr. Trump campaigned openly as a leader of peace through force, not a warmonger. That said, to shape the president’s understanding of options What President Trump’s inner circle does will be interesting in many ways. Unfortunately, we are headed for a fork in the road.”

The first and perhaps most immediate option is a US military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. President Trump’s advisers have reportedly expressed concern that Iran’s progress may be going too far and that a military strike may become the only option. According to To Axios. Israel has conducted similar operations in the past, making it a prime candidate for support.

playing cards refused He elaborated on his Iran strategy at a recent press conference, saying it would be “stupid” to publicly disclose his strategy. (Related: Israeli special forces receive forklift certification for daring raid in Syria)

“The Trump Administration is committed to restoring peace and stability in the Middle East. President Trump will keep all options related to the Iranian regime on the table, including maximum pressure.” Vance transition spokesperson Brian Hughes told DCNF.

Jason Brodsky, policy director for the Iran Opposition Alliance, told DCNF that President Trump’s strategic ambiguity is actually an advantage that still allows diplomatic options.

“You’ll see reporters asking questions about a military attack on Iran, a pre-emptive military strike on Iran, and whether they would consider that, but the president has not publicly said that,” Brodsky told DCNF. We haven’t ruled out that,” he said. “It keeps everyone guessing, and that only helps our deterrence posture. It’s important to have this kind of declarative policy and maintain unpredictability, and the Biden administration “We erred in over-reliance on messaging and diplomacy and de-escalation, and I think that emboldened Iran.”

According to Axios, those close to Trump are hopeful that a deal may still be on the table, although details have not been released by Trump himself.

Logan told DCNF that President Trump’s ability to renegotiate the deal could help maintain peace with Iran.

“Trump demonstrated in his first term the ability to rebuild agreements very similar to the ones he destroyed,” Logan told DCNF. “For example, President Trump replaced NAFTA with USMCA, even though the differences between the two agreements were very small. If he can replicate that approach with Iran, that would probably be the best-case scenario. .”

The Iran Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA) was enacted during the Obama administration, and former President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, promising to build something better, but no new agreement was reached during his term in office. I didn’t. The JCPOA was often criticized as being too weak against Iran.

“I think the JCPOA is a dead giveaway, and I hope I’m wrong,” Logan told DCNF.

The Biden administration attempted to renegotiate the JCPOA upon taking office, but admitted in 2022 that the agreement was “dead.”

If President Trump considers tightening sanctions, he will need to improve on Biden’s lackluster efforts to restore wealth to Iran.

Under President Joe Biden, Iran’s oil revenues rose to $37 billion in 2021, $54 billion in 2022, and $53 billion in 2023, according to one report. report From the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Biden also waived sanctions on Iran, freeing up $10 billion in previously frozen electricity exports.

Iran funds various proxy terrorist organizations fighting Israel in the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Under the Trump administration, Iran’s oil revenues fell from about $65 billion in 2018 to $28 billion in 2019, and fell further to $16 billion in 2020, according to the EIA.

Iran’s GDP is heavily dependent on oil exports, making oil sanctions a viable option for gaining economic influence. According to Donate to Foundation for Defense of Democracy (FDD). However, some people question the effectiveness of foreign policy sanctions. expert The Johns Hopkins University professor said they would hurt the middle class more than the leaders and key figures.

Biden has been slow to impose oil sanctions on Iran to keep gasoline prices in check in the run-up to the 2024 election, but some Treasury officials say Biden has not taken enough action to target Iranian oil exports. It is reported that he was dissatisfied with the fact that he had not taken the exam.

If Iran does not have a nuclear capability, regional dynamics will change forever, FDD senior researcher Benham Ben Taleburu told DCNF. Currently, Iran is at a disadvantage as Israel and the United States continue their offensive against the Iranian government-backed Hezbollah and Houthi rebels.

“Without a nuclear threat from the Islamic Republic, that would be a big change,” Tabul told DCNF. “The debate in the policy community was, ‘How do we deal with the nuclear threat?’ The Obama approach, the Biden approach, they call it the ‘pay to play’ approach. But the problem with this approach is that all the influence is on their side. ”

Tabur told DCNF that the most accurate answer about Trump’s Iran policy will still come from Trump himself, even if he is reluctant to make his plans public.

“Who’s at the top and who’s at the bottom, who’s close to Trump, who’s not close to Trump, who are the internationalists in the cabinet, who are the isolationists in the cabinet,” Tuble told DCNF. “Everyone will be paying attention.” “President Trump is actually surprisingly outspoken, and I think it would be wise to pay attention to what the most powerful person in the room is saying, rather than doing criminology, which is President Trump.”

The White House did not respond to DCNF’s request for comment.

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