Available data and recent history weigh on the Biden administration’s long-awaited study on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm’s attempts to turn the study into something other than what it is. This contradicts one point.

Announced by the Department of Energy (DOE). study On Tuesday, nearly a year after the Biden administration froze LNG export approvals to non-free trading countries in January, the paper concluded that expanding LNG export capacity would not be in the public interest. However, it does suggest that large increases in exports will push up domestic natural gas prices, despite all available evidence that the exact opposite is true.

“A new study from the U.S. Department of Energy shows that a wide range of domestic natural gas consumers, from households to farmers to heavy industry, will face higher prices due to increased exports,” Granholm said. said in a statement addressing her agency’s report. “A study proposed today finds that freely exporting LNG would increase the wholesale price of domestic natural gas by more than 30%. The cost would increase by more than $100 per year.” (Related article: ‘That’s crazy’: Energy secretary laughs when asked about soaring gas prices)

Before the Biden administration. This week, following the decision to delay approval of the massive CP2 LNG export terminal, White House officials met with a 25-year-old TikTok influencer who is driving an online campaign to scrap the project.

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The study released this week is not the first DOE publication to suggest that increased LNG exports could cause domestic prices to rise. In 2012, the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration also made an announcement. projected If new LNG export capacity is rapidly installed, wellhead prices (the price of gas at the point of production) could rise by 54% by 2018. From 2012 to today, during a period of significant acceleration in U.S. LNG exports, domestic natural gas prices have declined as export volumes have increased significantly. According to To analyze data from the Chamber of Commerce.

Although the shale revolution of the late 2000s and early 2010s spurred massive growth in the U.S. natural gas industry, prior to 2016, U.S. LNG exports were essentially unimportant. According to To the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Currently, the United States is the world’s leading LNG exporter and plans to approximately double the LNG export capacity of Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter, by 2028.

Indeed, in his assessment of the DOE’s LNG study, Granholm acknowledged that increased exports do not mean higher domestic prices, stating, “Historically, U.S. consumers and businesses “We have benefited from relatively stable natural gas prices.” They face much larger price fluctuations. ” In fact, Granholm says that during the same period that the U.S. LNG industry has grown into a world leader, U.S. natural gas prices have remained “relatively stable.”

“There’s no evidence of such a correlation,” says David Blackmon, who worked in the oil and gas industry for 40 years and now writes and consults on the energy sector. Granholm spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation about his proposal, which he said could lead to more exports. Domestic prices are high. “That’s complete nonsense.”

Additionally, Mr. Granholm was the driving force behind a period of rising U.S. energy costs that energy market analysts love. travis fisherdirector of energy and environmental policy research at the Cato Institute, due to the influence of the Biden administration. over $1 trillion Green energy and climate challenges.

“Mr. Granholm’s letter and its leak to the New York Times are a cynical and transparent attempt to shore up the study’s findings and demonstrate that continued growth in LNG export business is in the national interest. “We’re making a case for it,” Blackmon said. . “This is the kind of political maneuvering that was typical throughout President Biden’s term and probably contributed to Donald Trump’s second term in office. The public is tired of this kind of nonsense. I am doing it.”

S&P Global has been released original research The same day the DOE released its report examining the impact of a long-term increase in U.S. LNG exports. S&P analysis shows that domestic natural gas prices have not increased despite strong export growth, and that the LNG industry could add 1 trillion yen to U.S. GDP by 2040, in addition to bringing in huge tax revenues to the national treasury. It turns out that it has the potential to contribute as much as $300 billion.

Nevertheless, in his assessment, Granholm argued that his agency’s latest announcement “confirms that business as usual is neither sustainable nor a good idea.”

In terms of sustainability, U.S. LNG is considered cleaner than gas from Russia, Qatar, and most other regions. analyst It has great potential to displace dirtier fuels such as coal from other countries, thereby reducing emissions compared to ‘business as usual’ and taking into account the intermittent nature of renewable energy. Maintain energy reliability.

Regarding whether it is “wise” to expand LNG export capacity, particularly for investors and developers, Blackmon said it is not the government’s role to decide which private investments are “wise” or not. Rather, it is up to the private sector to decide which investments make sense and which don’t, and while those who read the market correctly reap the benefits, they also make the wrong investment decisions. The person who makes the choice will absorb the consequences of that choice.

“Not only is this not Mr. Granholm’s work, but the findings in the report released Tuesday do not support such a conclusion in any way,” Blackmon said.

The DOE did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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