Democrats’ Vote Position Compared to Republicans
On Wednesday, CNN’s senior data reporter, Harry Enten, pointed out that historically, Democrats have often been behind in voter turnout. Currently, they are leading Republicans by two points in the general Congressional margins. However, this margin is significantly smaller compared to the midterm election periods in 2006 and 2018 when Republican presidents were in office. Enten shared his analysis on “CNN News Central,” noting that in July 2006 and July 2017, Democrats were ahead by seven points.
“When looking at the pace of voter preference, Democrats are trailing compared to 2006 and 2018. Sure, they’re ahead, but just by two points. Back in 2017, they were seven points ahead,” he remarked. “If you consider the 2005 Congressional vote, the lead was also seven points, now it’s just two.”
Interestingly, in contrast to the situation in 2005 and 2017, Republicans currently hold a 12-point advantage over Democrats, increasing their chances for more net pickups, according to Enten. He mentioned how Democrats had previously secured more opportunities during periods like 2007, when they held a seven-point lead, and in 2017 with a substantial 33-point lead.
“If you think about it, Republicans seem to have more net pickup possibilities at certain times. This doesn’t resemble the significant wave elections we saw in 2006 or 2018,” Enten noted.
Furthermore, Democrats find themselves in a challenging position with a similar two-point lead reported in October 2024. This comes after Republicans scored a significant win in the 2024 election, regaining control in the Senate and taking back the White House.
Enten noted that Trump is enjoying greater popularity among his party’s voters compared to past Republican presidents, especially since he has proposed several key campaign initiatives, including addressing inflation and border security.
On the approval front, Democrats have recorded an all-time low rating not seen since the 1990s. A CNN/SSRS poll indicated only 29% of people favored the Democrats in March, marking the lowest point since 1992. Additionally, a Marist/NPR/PBS News survey published on July 1 found just 27% of Americans approving of Congressional Democrats’ performance.
