Axios reporter Hans Nichols argued Friday that Republican candidate Donald Trump could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college to Vice President Kamala Harris, based on recent national polling averages. did.
Nichols said in “Your World With Neil Cavuto” that national polls showing the former president ahead of Harris just two weeks after the election show that Trump is likely to win the popular vote. ” he said. National polls show Mr. Trump is doing well among a bloc of voters in battleground states that do not include undecided voters.
“I think you made that call, and it turned out to be right. You’re going to be known as a seer or a besieger this election cycle,” Nichols told Fox News host Neil Cavuto. I guess so.” “Actually, I agree with you too. [that] That’s more likely than people are giving it credit for, and it goes back to the whole issue of national polls and electoral polls or battleground state polls. The assumption ingrained in everyone’s minds is that even if President Trump underperforms in national polls, he can still win in the Electoral College. ”
“What you just suggested may be true, and something will happen at the national level. Trump will become more popular in blue states for various reasons like crime and immigration, and Trump’s current frothy Many of those numbers are… His numbers are even higher at the national level, but they’re actually from voters who have no bearing on who wins on November 5th: undecided voters in battleground states. So we’re counting 100,000 voters who aren’t. So, I love Neil’s prediction. I don’t know if it’s true, but I think we should be aware that it’s a possibility. I think so.”
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A Wall Street Journal poll on Thursday showed Trump leading Harris nationally, 47% to 45%, but CNBC said public opinion poll At the national level, the former president held a two-point lead over Harris, 48% to 46%. As of Oct. 18, the former president held a 0.8 percentage point lead over Harris in every battleground state, according to RealClearPolling averages. (Related: Prominent pollster reveals his ‘gut feeling’ that Trump will win)
playing cards lost In 2016, she lost the popular vote to former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by about 3 million votes, but defeated her in the electoral vote by a margin of 304 to 227, leading to her eventual victory. former president lost Both the popular vote and electoral votes for President Joe Biden in 2020.
Harris’ popularity declined in October following her media blitz, mostly in friendly outlets. her positivity evaluation An NBC News poll in September showed a high unfavorable opinion of the vice president at 48% to 45%, but since then, a CNBC poll has shown that voters’ perceptions of the vice president have changed to 39% positive and 49% unfavorable. MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki emphasized Thursday.
National popular vote polls show the vice president leading Trump by an average of 1 point, compared to President Joe Biden’s 9 point lead in late October before the 2016 and 2020 elections, and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s lead. This is far lower than the 6-point lead held by the Secretary. said CNN’s Harry Enten on Friday.
No Republican candidate has won Popularity vote Since former President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.
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