President Joe Biden claims he can make up the gap in the polls, but historically candidates who have aligned with him have lost elections.
Biden Claimed In an interview with BET on Wednesday night, he said several other candidates who were trailing in the polls went on to win in November.Election experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation said Biden's optimism ignores the inconvenient fact that his approval ratings are low. (Related: New Poll Says Literally Anyone Would Do Better Than Biden)
“While there may be candidates who have overturned a two- or three-point lead, no incumbent has recovered from low approval ratings at this stage in the race,” John McHenry, a Republican polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
President Joe Biden delivers a press conference for the NATO 2024 Summit in Washington, DC, July 11, 2024. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
Biden: BET Interview “Five of the presidents who have won at this stage — the last seven or eight presidents — have lost by large margins at this point.”
However, of the last 15 presidential elections in which a sitting president has competed, only two have been won by former presidents (George W. Bush, 2004 Harry Truman 1948) was trailing at this point in the election but ultimately won. (Related article: Majority of Democrats would accept Harris if Biden declines: Poll)
Among first-time nominees, most of the final eight candidates who were leading the polls at this stage went on to win the presidential election, with the exception of Trump. 2016 And Bush 2004.
“This isn't about Bill Clinton being down two points,” McHenry told DCNF. “This isn't about Barack Obama being down two points. At 81 years old, Obama is showing clear signs of decline, dropping several points nationally and in the mid- to high-single digits in many of the battleground states he needs to win.”
Over the past few months, Biden's approval rating has stagnated below 40% while his disapproval rating has soared to over 50%. according to Biden's disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating since September 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections. (Related: WSJ/NYT poll is latest in a series of surveys showing Biden trailing Trump after the debate)
“Nobody has been in as bad a position in the polls as he has and bounced back to win,” Charles Block, the Richard B. Russell Professor of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia's Department of Politics, told DCNF.
Biden's position is alarming for Democrats, as he is lagging behind former President Donald Trump in seven key battleground states. according to According to the RealClearPolling averages, Trump is narrowing Biden's lead in states that Democrats have won easily for decades, including New York, New Mexico, Minnesota and Virginia.
“It's easy to say, 'I'm only losing by a couple of points nationally,' but elections aren't decided nationally, they're decided state by state,” McHenry told the DCNF. “And right now, I'm losing by a lot in all of the battleground states.”
In the past 15 election cycles, only two candidates who performed worse than Biden at this point went on to win the election. 1988Bush had lost to Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis but went on to win the election. Similarly, Republican candidate and now former president Richard Nixon had trailed Democratic challenger Hubert Humphrey but went on to win the election. 1968. (RELATED: Chuck Schumer reportedly 'forced' Biden to drop out of race)
“Technically it's possible, but it's highly unlikely,” McHenry told the DCNF. “Frankly, I don't think he's in a position to recover. He's not strong enough, physically or mentally, to be able to advocate for himself.”
Speculation about Biden's cognitive functioning has surrounded his inauguration and campaign, but came to a head following his poor performance in the first presidential debate on June 27. The day after Trump and Biden appeared in the debate, 60% of voters and 40% of Democrats said the president should be replaced by the Democratic candidate. according to According to a June 28 Morning Consult poll.
“The Democrats running in the swing states have a significant lead over him,” Bullock told DCNF. “So it's not necessarily about Democrats rejecting it. It's more personal — concerns about Joe Biden. Three weeks ago, he had a chance to allay some of those concerns, but rather than alleviating them, he just intensified them.”
Since the first presidential debate in June, more than 25 House Democrats and four senators have It is called Biden's withdrawal comes amid growing concerns that his withdrawal could push the party down from its top position. (RELATED: 'Passing the baton': More House Democrats urge Biden to step down)
“It feels like the conversation has shifted from, 'will we replace Joe Biden?' to, 'when will we replace him?'” McHenry told DCNF. “That doesn't mean he'll definitely be replaced, but it feels like it's becoming more and more likely that he will be replaced.”
The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the DCNF.
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