Perhaps most importantly, Biden has proven that he can not only rebuild the so-called Blue Wall (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) in 2020, but he can have the increasingly purple Arizona and Georgia.
So which Republican candidate is best suited to take on Biden and take back these battleground states? Here’s a clear look at their strengths and weaknesses.
Former President Donald Trump
The only president since the polls came out to be impeached twice and indicted once Never had more than 50% approval, Trump has not exactly cropped the profile of the model challenger. Even when he ran for president twice, his highest standard in the popular vote was just under 47%. But in 2016, he showed that there is a path to victory for the Electoral College.
In a rematch with Biden, Trump will likely be in a better position politically than many of his Republican rivals on issues such as entitlement reform and abortion, where he’s getting a little more centered. Still, there are five state issues that Biden flipped in 2020. Trump doesn’t need to take back every state to retake the White House, but at least he could need three. slam dunk.
That’s due to Trump’s weaknesses, not Biden’s strengths. There are clear signs of a more specialized Trump campaign operation than in the past. But Trump is still Trump (e.g. his easter message the holiest day of the Christian calendar). The battleground states that will decide the 2024 election are one of the states most destabilized by Trump’s polarized politics, either because of conflicts between Trump and state parties, or because he is one of the forces unleashed by the baseless allegations of election fraud.
Let’s take Georgia. His 2022 Republican primary there represents a massive denial of the former president. The cherry on top came in December’s Senate runoff, which defeated Trump’s hand-picked candidate Herschel Walker. In Arizona, the epicenter of election denial, Trump-backed statewide candidates clashed and went up in flames in his November. Biden has done nothing for his 2022 Democrats, but so has Trump. His 38% of Arizona voters said they voted against Biden, while 35% said they voted against Trump, according to exit polls.
The blue wall that Trump broke in 2016 is equally daunting. Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Democrats currently have the upper hand and have run side-by-side in presidential elections for nearly 40 years, have had no small effect on the backlash against Trump in their most populous suburbs. Barring a large rural turnout, or Black Swan event, Biden has a decisive advantage over Trump in both places.
Wisconsin, the closest of the three states in 2020, split Biden and Trump by just 20,000 votes. But the Republican trendline doesn’t look promising either. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump lagged behind traditional Republican margins in Milwaukee’s conservative suburbs, vital to Republican chances. To make matters worse, with liberal Dane County emerging as an electoral powerhouse in the Trump era and witnessing the recent state Supreme Court election, Trump-led Republican supporters will create another monster voter turnout there. is guaranteed.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
In the view of many Republican officials, DeSantis is Trump without the baggage and drama. If he does run, they envision a vigorous lawsuit against the emaciated Biden, an incumbent nearly twice his age, with conservative Oshu Governor just finishing a landslide reelection. I’m here.
It is true that DeSantis could stop the bleeding in the traditionally Republican suburbs, especially across the Sunbelt, while maintaining other elements of the MAGA coalition. His strong performance among all Latinx groups in Florida in 2022 re-election It caught the attention of both parties — he even surpassed Trump’s 2020 Latinx interests.
But the governor’s recent stumbling block has raised real questions about how he’ll perform on the national stage under the constant pressure of a presidential election. And the disciplined approach and sharp political instincts that enabled his rapid rise on the national stage weren’t enough to protect him from Trump’s attacks. If coming out of the election, and Trump is one of a kind – DeSantis will enter the general election against Biden with a deep scar to show it.
In presidential elections, governors are usually faced with questions about their lack of foreign policy experience, and DeSantis’ description of Russia’s war in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute” was later met with bipartisan criticism. It only supports Biden’s claims by retracting it inside. experienced hands.
But that stance may not be as politically troubling as the bill he recently signed banning abortion after the sixth week of pregnancy. may have advanced his primary prospects, but polls and recent election results in battleground states that determine the presidency suggest his position could be in the millstone. increase. If DeSantis is the Republican nominee, the ban would make abortion rights more likely than ever to become a central issue in 2024, drowning out other issues that would make Biden more vulnerable.
Former Vice President Mike Pence
Biden has proven that even if the former vice president sits on the sidelines for four years, he can still come back to win the presidency. For one thing, his superiors expressed his support for hanging him during the 6 January riots.
Pence’s strained relationship with Trump has put his hopes of winning the nomination far in the air, with Pence saying on Sunday that he will announce his 2024 presidential decision “well in advance” in late June. Pence’s best case in the general election is that he’s a Reagan conservative whose loyal service to Trump can bridge the gap between traditional Republicans and the MAGA arm of the party. As a former Midwest governor, he stands to compete in the 2020 Biden-turned-industry battleground states. Given the structure of Republican Governor Brian Kemp’s successful 2022 re-election campaign, Georgia’s 16 electoral votes seem to reach even Pence.
Conversely, part of the MAGA movement may never forgive Pence’s refusal to bow to Trump’s pressure to block certification of the 2020 Electoral College ballot. And the appeal, in which Pence himself gained a share of the vote, remains uncertain. Despite his estranged relationship with Trump and his suburban dad image, he can’t easily evade Trump’s involvement in slash-and-burn politics, Pence said in 2012 in Indiana, where he’d only state once. ran the whole thing. That year he ran well behind Romney’s pace. He wasn’t a front-runner until Trump poached him for re-election in 2016 and got him a ticket to the presidential race.
Nikki Haley Former Governor of South Carolina
The daughter of immigrants from India, Haley was the first woman in history and the first person of color to become a Republican nominee. Her position, along with her age (she’s about 30 years younger than Biden), is a stark contrast to her campaign trajectory.
Haley, who announced her candidacy in February, has also shown the potential to close the gender gap in the general election, which was 57 to 42 in 2020., two additional groups Trump lost in 2020.
But establishing independence from Trump will not be easy. She has frequently been critical of the former president, including when she called out “the siren call of the most angry voices” in 2016. has praised his agenda for years.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott
Scott’s formidable political prowess has been on display ever since he was governor at the time. Nikki Haley named him Senator in 2013. Lindsay Graham by vote. In 2016, he surpassed Donald Trump in South Carolina by more than 86,000 of his votes.
But in his three Senate campaigns, Scott has never faced serious Democratic opposition or harsh media scrutiny. It came on his second day of campaigning after announcing the Preliminary Commission when he stumbled badly on the question of whether to support federal abortion restrictions.
And any hope that Scott, the Republican Party’s first black presidential candidate, will be able to win Biden’s considerable support among black voters must be tempered by Scott’s actual performance. While we have improved our percentages in the state, we regularly lose majority in the state’s nine majority black counties.
other candidates
Some of the early state-touring candidates — among them Vivek Ramaswamy and Perry Johnson — have no electoral record to evaluate. But former two-term Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and current New Hampshire Governor Chris Snunu have had ballot box success, not to mention some of the highest approval ratings in the country. As popular traditional conservatives who have been lone Trump critics within the party, they are likely well positioned to compete across the map in the general election, but Republican supporters It shows little willingness to nominate critics.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, once a Trump ally and sharp critic, faces the same predicament. , due to his success as president of the Republican Governors Association, he is familiar with the demands of running competitively on the national map.
But his experience in the failed 2016 presidential election captured both the potential and the downside of a potential candidacy. Winning much-needed support from union leaders in New Hampshire, who were prominent voices in early state primaries, publisher Joseph McQuade successfully led Christie to victory and rule in a liberal nation. He was described as a “steady, lifelong conservative.”
But a few months later, the paper withdrew its endorsement after Christie endorsed Trump. “Watching Christie kiss Donald’s ring this weekend and making excuses for a man who said Christie herself wasn’t fit to be president will show us how wrong we were. “Far from standing up to the bullies, Christie bent her knees.” Biden probably won’t have to try too hard to remind the public.
